Patriot Scientific der Highflyer 2006
Posted by: patriotism on November 26, 2007 09:47AM
Facts:
The stay order granted by Judge Ward ends on friday.
According to the SEC-Rules Material Events have to be filed immediately in a 8k-filing also from lawsuits.
From the past we've learned, that PDS being a non public company, the SEC accepted, that the revenues in the past and now generated from license activities by PDS for PTSC, are regarded as business as usual, so that they do not have to be filed in a 8k-filing by PTSC and the final overall numbers for the quarter only must be shown in the quarterly reports of PTSC.
We also know from one of the last shareholder meetings, that PTSC would and has to file immediately an event of such an unusual importance, when there is a signing/settlement/trial victory for huge amounts.
As Albie pointed out here, the answers and arguments given by the owner regarding the reexamination process of the 584' patent, show such a strength from an objective view of non specialists, that the chances to receive the final validity for this special patent from the USPTO now seems to be much more higher than in the past.
As of today the USPTO didn't issue a final decision about the reexamined patents.
After the 584' was dropped from the Texas Case, the case was ongoing only with the two patents 148' and 336'.
So generally, settlement talks will include these two patents. Whether the 584' patent will be included or not is pure speculation and nothing else! The terminus MMP-Portfolio used in this context from some of the boardmembers in my opinion is wrong, because the MMP-Portfolio has more than this 2 patents.
ARM is not a part of the appeal for the 584' according to the Pacer documents, that wolf has provided here on this board.
My take on this all is very simple:
The stay order was granted for reasons nobody in the public knows. I'm in the camp of those here, who speculate, that the ACP ruling might have forced the decision of this stay order finally.
5 days to go from here until we all will know, if this case settles or not. My overall interpretation of the situation indicates clearly a settlement. I'm expecting, that the settlement amounts will be annouced immediately for these reasons:
1. SEC-Rules (the PTSC part of such a settlement in connection with the unusually high amounts absent from the business as usual)
2. After 10 years of legal battles the plaintiffs will want to show the strength of their position and the MMP-Portfolio
3. The Plaintiffs will want to give the message to other possible infringers, that the patents are strong and that it is better to sign qickly than later
4. An announcement of huge amounts will show the value of the portfolio and signalize other possible infringers, that there will be a correlation between the results of that settlement and future signings regarding the total $ amounts
5. The overall marketing effect of such a big news for TPL/PTSC and the shareholders will be great
The 584' answers of the owner show some significant strength for this patent from the view of all non experts. The 584' patent actually is a non issue in the overall scheme of the upcoming decision about a settlement, because a settlement for PTSC means: The risk of a loss at trial will be gone. The fears of investors to lose the case will be gone. The material effects of a settlement will bring PTSC in the high comfortable role, to improve the shareholder value significantly and to plan a future absent from IP-Licensing. That beeing said, the 584' patent is actually not very important, as many here describe it at the moment. Surely it would be nice to see the 584' patent as one part of a settlement and the appeal being cancelled, but in the overall scheme, it is quite unimportant actually, because the main issue is a settllement right now for the 336' and 148' patents and nothing else from my point of view!
I do not expect a final USPTO decision for one or all patents this week, because it looks like the parties are trying to settle. Why should the USPTO influence the parties, when they want a settlement? I can't see a reason for the USPTO to decide about the validity of the patents right in front of a possible settlement after more than 3 weeks of the stay order now are over.
The 336' and the 148' for me are a bank after the Markman Ruling. So if there will be a final decision of the USPTO in the near future I'm expecting, that they prove both patents valid. If the 584' patent will stay in the appeal, I see good chances for a final validation of this patent also.
As I've stated here many times before I'm anticipating a settlement range between $ 110 M - $ 180 M. I'm expecting the revenues for PDS delivered until now in this quarter from the 4 existing signings including Royal Philips to be around $ 20M. I see a domino effect in place after the announcement of the stay order supported by the 584' answers of the plaintiffs regarding the USPTO Reexamination. I expect the domino effect ongoing after a settlement and increasing after the USPTO would assure the validation of the 336' and 148' patents, which I see very strong after the Markman Ruling. The financials will reflect this anticipated development. Overall I'm expecting $ 0.15 - $ 0.19 EPS until the end of May 2008 (fiscal year end PTSC).
The issued Cohen Report shows a price target for PTSC under the circumstances, that PTSC delivers $ 38 M in net income for the fiscal year and 415 M OS diluted, including a $ 10 M share buy back, at the end of the fiscal year in May of $ 2.31. The results are based on the DCF-Modell and Equtiy Earnings of $ 60 M from PDS leading to EPS of $ 0.09 and a P/E Ratio of 25 in Cohens opitistic case scenario (in different terms of this analysis Cohen has stated, that they expect PTSC to outperform these results in a strong way).
So if I now calculate again for example a $ 140 M settlement without the current delivered 4 licenses in this quarter, which I expect to be around $ 20 M for PDS, a settlement in this area alone would lead to the Cohen results ($ 20 M litigation costs included; $ 120 M for PDS, 50 % = $ 60 M for PTSC) of $ 38 M in net profits for the fiscal year including a $ 10 M share buy back. And we've 6 months to go from here until the end of the fiscal year, 4 licenses for this quarter in the pocket, $ 23M cash on hand, 18 M shares already bought back with an average of $ 0.62, that will increase the value of the company additionally above this shareprice. And the most important thing is the anticipated upcoming domino effect from a settlement for the next 6 months leading to strong additional signings! (Holocom and SSDI numbers not included)
So from a long perspective I'm very confident, that we'll gone see a massive shareprice improvement in the next 6 months beginning hopefully soon with settlement news. We should not forget, that the signings of HP and Fujitsu in 2006 for high amounts alone moved the shareprice over 6 weeks form $ 0.17 - $2.21, because the market at this time additionally anticipated a domino effect and the end of the Texas Case. So the question is, what will gone happen, when the Texas Case is settled, the USPTO declares the patents valid and we will see ongoing signings in a high frequenzy at higher rates?
My summary:
I will stay long and I will not think about the selling of one single share until we reach a shareprice of $ 5. I also expect a strong upmove this week (settlement speculations) and I hope for all the daily gainers out there, that they are on the right side, when the shareprice begins to surge......
All IMHO
Be well and good luck to all! But it all depends on a settlement and huge amounts as described above and as allways we shall see!
Patriotism
Aus dem Agora-Board
We also know from one of the last shareholder meetings, that PTSC would and has to file immediately an event of such an unusual importance, when there is a signing/settlement/trial victory for huge amounts."
Na ja, dann ist ja zumindest eines sicher, spätestens am Dienstag wissen wir, ob eine Einigung erzielt wurde oder nicht. Allerdings bin ich nicht mehr so euphorisch, dass ich noch glaube, der Kurs würde tatsächlich die 5 USD erreichen. Ich halte bei den momentan gehandelten Summmen im Falle einer Einigung, 2 USD als kurzfristiges Kursziel für realistisch. Lassen wir uns überraschen, vor allem von der Höhe der vereinbarten Zahlungen, falls die Einigung tatsächlich verkündet werden sollte.
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enter application-number 90008474
Date Transaction Description
11-28-2007 Date Forwarded to Examiner
meiner meinung nach könnte uns die nachricht über eine einigung - wenn es denn eine gegeben hat - spätestens dienstag erreichen
gruss
kinu
Grüße Abenteurer
Da hast Du vollkommen recht,das ganze Verhalten zeigt aber auch auf,daß es hier nicht um Peanuts geht, sondern um richtig Kohle.
Manche hier im Board denken da an 20-50 Millionen USD,
ich persönlich gehe von 200 bis 400 Millionen aus.
TPL und Lecrone sind doch nicht so blöde und werden mit den J2,5 wegen ein paar Millönchen 1,5 Jahre lang zu prozessieren um dann irgendwann zu verkünden, hallo Leute wir haben uns auf eine Summe von 40 Millionen geeint.
Da kann ich nur lachen, die Zeit der Rabatte ist schon lange vorbei.
Wer sich mit Zahlen zwischen 20-50 Millionen USD beschäftigt, bitte schön jedem seine Sache, aber hier gehts um mehr, daß haben viel User aus den Augen verloren und sind zum Teil mittlerweile in eine wahre Angstneurose geflüchtet, die wären ja schon froh wenn es nur 30 Millionen geben würde.
Hauptsache geeinigt, nix da, Pustekuchen ich gehe davon aus, daß Lecrone zwischen 400-700 Mill. USD gefordert hat.
Auserdem wie gesagt, ein Urteil zu unserem Gunsten und das ganze Klim-Bim und die Patent-Streitigkeiten vor Gericht sind vorbei.
Auserdem wären dann unsere Patente legaliesiert und vor Gericht anerkannt.
Deshalb habe ich auch schon Kurse im 2 stelligen € Bereich vorausgesagt, falls es so kommt wie ich es denke.
Gruß Andelko
Muß man leider nicht ernst nehmen.
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Interesting vectorvest analysis on PTSC value. This is before the anticipated upcoming settlement. The only negative is the safety risk which we all know. I think a lot of things will become much clearer in the next week or two. Remove some or most of the risk we fly....IMO
Capital Appreciation
Value: Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. PTSC has a current Value of $1.14 per share. Therefore, it is undervalued compared to its Price of $0.61 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease. VectorVest advocates the purchase of undervalued stocks. At some point in time, a stock's Price and Value always will converge.
RV (Relative Value): RV is an indicator of long-term price appreciation potential. PTSC has an RV of 1.46, which is excellent on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. This indicator is far superior to a simple comparison of Price and Value because it is computed from an analysis of projected price appreciation three years out, AAA Corporate Bond Rates, and risk. RV solves the riddle of whether it is preferable to buy High growth, High P/E stocks, or Low growth, Low P/E stocks. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks with RV ratings above 1.00.
RS (Relative Safety): RS is an indicator of risk. PTSC has an RS rating of 0.59, which is poor on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. RS is computed from an analysis of the consistency and predictability of a company's financial performance, debt to equity ratio, sales volume, business longevity, price volatility and other factors. A stock with an RS rating greater than 1.00 is safer and more predictable than the average stock in the VectorVest database. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks of companies with consistent, predictable financial performance.
RT (Relative Timing): RT is a fast, smart, accurate indicator of a stock's price trend. PTSC has a Relative Timing rating of 1.60, which is excellent on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. RT is computed from an analysis of the direction, magnitude, and dynamics of a stock's price movements over one day, one week, one quarter and one year time periods. Once a stock's price has established a strong trend, it is expected to continue in that trend for the short-term. If a trend dissipates, RT will gravitate toward 1.00. RT will explode from bottoms, dive from tops, and reflect changes in price momentum. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks with RT ratings above 1.00.
VST (VST-Vector): VST is the master indicator for ranking every stock in the VectorVest database. PTSC has a VST rating of 1.31, which is very good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. VST is computed from the square root of a weighted sum of the squares of RV, RS, and RT. Stocks with the highest VST ratings have the best combinations of Value, Safety and Timing. These are the stocks to own for above average, long-term capital appreciation. VectorVest advocates the purchase of safe, undervalued stocks rising in price.
Recommendation (REC): VectorVest gives a Buy, Sell, Hold recommendation on every stock, every day. PTSC has a Buy recommendation. REC reflects the cumulative effect of all the VectorVest parameters working together. These parameters are designed to help investors buy safe, undervalued stocks rising in price. They also help investors avoid or sell risky, overvalued stocks falling in price. VectorVest recommends that investors buy high VST-Vector, Buy-rated stocks in rising markets.
Ich tippe auf "Nö", hehehe.
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Grüße Abenteurer
Häufig geschieht dies nach Börsenschluß. Bin mal gespannt was kommt.
Daewoo Electronics Corporation is an industry leading manufacturer of high-quality, cutting-edge and environmentally friendly consumer electronics designed for the whole family to enjoy. The company is one of South Korea´s largest makers and exporters of TVs (digital, high-definition), DVD players and recorders, VCRs, and portable video recorders. The firm also makes home appliances (microwave ovens, refrigerators, washing machines, vacuum cleaners, and air conditioners). Daewoo Electronics has operations in more than 40 countries, including five plants in Korea, as well as research centers in Europe and North America.
Nassie sei so nett und kläre mich auf!
Grüße Abenteurer
http://www.agoracom.com/ir/patriot/messages/649854#message
Eine Entscheidung (Re-Examination of 336) sei innerhalb der nächsten 3 Wochen zu erwarten.
Zitat: I believe that TPL and PTSC want this settled once and for all with a precedent type announcement. PTO is a thorn in our side that will finally be determined within the next 3 weeks.
Zitat: I calculated NLT December 21st based on this being a government office. It could have been as long as 27 Dec as I called around the 27th but it could be this week or even today. I don't think it will extend until then but based on what I was told simple and straight forward " within a month".
http://www.agoracom.com/ir/patriot/messages/649908#message
Und diese Überlegungen scheinen auch nicht abwegig: PTSC will eine Gerichtsentscheidung, kein "settlement" : http://www.agoracom.com/ir/patriot/messages/649690#message
http://www.agoracom.com/ir/patriot/messages/650470#message:
Doesn't make sense that the USPTO is waiting on this case to make a decision with the 26th company signing today.
If the USPTO will have a decision in 30 days (or less hopefully) and if the new motions deadline is 12/12, wouldn' that mean that a MSJ has to be filed no later than 12/12 with or without the decision?
Wer weiß, wie es weitergeht?
Nr. 1: Upcoming Events
Court Hearing Deadlines (Thanks wolfpackvolt): http://www.agoracom.com/ir/patriot/messages/574552#message
SEC Filings: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/sec?s=PTSC.OB
Nr. 2: Alles über PTSC
http://www.agoracom.com/ir/patriot/messages/650491
Deadlines/Hearings
Doc. No./Hearing Event Filed Due/Set Satisfied/Terminated
288 Jury Selection 08/07/2007 01/07/2008 at 9:00 AM
288 Pretrial Conference 08/07/2007 12/17/2007 at 1:30 PM
288 Motions Deadline 08/07/2007 12/12/2007
95 Jury Selection 08/08/2006 11/05/2007 at 9:00 AM 05/11/2007
250 Jury Selection 05/11/2007 11/05/2007 at 9:00 AM 07/23/2007
82 Jury Selection 07/11/2006 11/05/2007 at 09:00 AM 08/08/2006
274 Jury Selection 07/23/2007 11/05/2007 at 09:00 AM 08/07/2007
95 Pretrial Conference 08/08/2006 10/23/2007 at 1:30 PM 05/11/2007
>>>>Attachments: # (1) Text of Proposed Order # (2) Exhibit A)(Partridge, Scott) <<<<
To me this is saying that the Defendants have the order written for the Judge to sign. The agreed upon settlement "Exhibit A" for the FYI for the Judge.
The attached "attachment #(1) Text of Proposed Order" asking the judge to dismiss the lawsuit as both sides have come to an agreement as signed by both parties.
This would have to come from the defendants as they are asking the Judge of their own free will and TT&C are nodding over their shoulder saying "yes Sir we do agree with this motion."
Please correct me if I'm missing something here. But to me this is what it is.
Matze, Nassie; Mathou und die anderen - wo steckt Ihr nur an einem so denkwürdigen Tag?
Grüße Abenteurer