TOP-Solargewinner nach der großen Krise
Aber anscheinend wird hier sehr professionell gespielt, d.h. der Kurs durch Verkäufe unten gehalten und dann zugekauft. Eigentlich glaube ich ja weniger an sowas, aber wie hätte der Kurs so "stabil" bleiben können, wenn er nicht gedeckelt worden wäre?
Naja, schauen wir mal, was die Zukunft bringt!
So long!
Na dann - dann ist doch noch alles in Butter! 50% vom Freefloat ist der absolute Wahnsinn! Ich würde bei so einer Konstellation eigentlich darauf vertrauen, dass nichts schief gehen dürfte. Irgendwann müssen die Shorties zurückkaufen. Da führt kein Weg dran vorbei.
Also soll, kann, muss die Aktie irgendwann ordentlich anziehen. Risiko und GEfahren bleiben natürlich....
Average pricing in October for crystalline silicon (c-Si) solar modules declined in nearly all worldwide regions because of weak demand in Germany, according to IHS.
The average price per watt for c-Si solar modules declined in a range of 1.9-3.5% from September-October in the EU, China, the US, Japan and the rest of the world. The only major country to buck the trend was Canada, where prices rose by 5.5%.
"Demand in Europe for solar modules dropped off in October, primarily due to developments in the solar powerhouse of Germany," said Glenn Gu, senior analyst, photovoltaics, at IHS. "After solar PV system installations surged in September, the Germany solar market decelerated in October. When combined with weakening conditions in other EU countries including Greece and Bulgaria, Germany's slowdown had a major impact on module demand and pricing in the EU and throughout the world."
Pricing varies by region
Canada in October maintained the highest pricing of all regions, at an average of US$0.96/watt. At the other end of the spectrum was China, where pricing averaged US$0.58/watt.
The biggest decline in costs in October occurred in the US, where China-based c-Si modules experienced a 3.5% decline in pricing to US$0.69/watt, down from US$0.71/watt in September.
Much of this price decline was due to plunging costs among tier-three China-based suppliers. Module prices for these suppliers dropped by nearly 5% in October.
Prices to fall more in coming months
Prices are expected to decline during the period from November through January 2013.
China-based c-Si modules sold in Europe are expected to decline by 1.1% in November. Module prices shipped within China will decline by a larger margin. Looking ahead, 2-5% price declines are expected during the next three months in all regions.
Demand rebounds, but pricing does not
Emerging markets are expected to increase their orders for c-Si modules in 2013.
However, most of these countries are demanding cheaper modules in order to increase their return on investment from installations of new systems. Because of this, prices are set to continue to decline at least through early 2013.
IHS: Solar c-Si module worldwide average price by end-user region, Sep-Nov 2012 (US$/watt) | ||||
�@ | Sep | Oct | Nov | Three-month forecast |
EU | $0.65 | $0.63 | $0.63 | $0.60 |
US | $0.71 | $0.69 | $0.68 | $0.67 |
Canada | $0.91 | $0.96 | $0.94 | $0.92 |
China | $0.59 | $0.58 | $0.57 | $0.55 |
Japan | $0.84 | $0.82 | $0.81 | $0.80 |
ROW | $0.67 | $0.65 | $0.64 | $0.63 |
Source: IHS, compiled by Digitimes, December 2012
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20121204PR201.html
http://investor.firstsolar.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=724718
First Solar Hires Johan Cilliers as Regional Director for Sub-Saharan Africa
CAPE TOWN, South Africa & TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) today announced that Johan Cilliers has joined the company as Regional Director of Business Development for Sub-Saharan Africa and Managing Director of its new South Africa operating subsidiary. Cilliers will be based in First Solar’s newly established office in Cape Town and will report to Christopher Burghardt, Vice President of Business Development for Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA).
Cilliers brings more than 25 years of energy industry experience in South Africa and the region to First Solar. He joins from Suzlon, where he was vice president of sales and marketing in South Africa. Prior to that he worked at General Electric, Siemens and Eskom in a wide range of roles including market development, sales and marketing, project development and financing.
"South Africa has great potential to be a sustainable market for solar energy, and Cilliers’ quarter-century of experience in the African energy industry and strong understanding of the Sub-Saharan Africa market will be invaluable as we work with our customers to help the region meet its energy and economic development needs," said Burghardt.
"I am excited to be part of the First Solar team, which combines proven technology and unrivaled experience with a local approach that supports both the energy and economic development needs of this market," said Cilliers.
Cilliers earned a BS degree in chemistry from the University of Pretoria and BS degree in energy from the University of Johannesburg.
Bitte, bitte, lass noch mal ein, zwei richtig gute News kommen! ;+)
Und die Afrika-Marktpräsens ist jetzt im ersten Moment auch noch nicht das Ei des Kolumbus. Hier müssen auch erst Sales folgen!
Was für ein Pech. Ich könnt wetten wenn ich jetzt einsteige fällt sie nur noch.
War ja bisher immer so. ;-(
nicht ärgern, ging mir vor kurzem ähnlich. Bin inzwischen wieder long. das ding wird auch mal den einen oder anderen Rücksetzer hinlegen, den man dann zum einstieg nutzen kann.
Ich bin das ein oder andere Mal auch Kursen hinterher gelaufen, was noch schlimmer ist. Erst nicht dabei, dann oben eingestiegen und Geld beim Fallen vernichtet..... nenene....
http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/...-like-first-solar?source=yahoo
7 Reasons To Like First Solar
There are 7 reasons to still like First Solar despite a sharp rise in the price of its shares.
1) Financial Strength
First Solar earned $1 per fully diluted share in the third quarter (GAAP), an amount that included a $0.27 per share restructuring charge. Revenue recognition for the 550-megawatt Topaz Solar Farm project helped support its positive earnings last quarter.
During the quarter, First Solar was running its factories at 83% of capacity, driven by stronger demand. This is an improvement from the 63% utilization in the previous quarter. For the full-year, the cost per watt is estimate to be at $0.64 (consolidated manufacturing) and $0.61 (best line). Both estimates are lower than previously provided estimates.
First Solar has $717 million in cash and marketable securities and $530 million in debt.
2) Positive Forecast
The company raised its guidance for the year. First Solar now expects earnings to be between $4.40 - $4.70 per share (non-GAAP). Sales are expected to be between $3.5 and $3.8 billion.
Plant utilization is expected to run at 90 - 95% of capacity. This will help manufacturing costs decline from $0.70 - $0.72 per watt to $0.68 to $0.70 per watt for the year.
If warranty expenses and restructuring are included, earnings for the full year will be reduced by $6.00, leading to a GAAP diluted earnings per share loss of between $(1.60) and $(1.30). The company lowered its operating cash flow guidance to $650 to $850 million. First Solar previously guided $850 to $950 million.
First Solar anticipates nearly $9 billion in revenue in the future, based on its current project pipeline.
3) Expansion in China
As China-based players weaken, First Solar could strengthen its position in this region.
Yingli Green Energy Holding Co and Trina Solar are both dominant players in China. Trina anticipates favorable product development growth for PVs in China. The company also signed a land use agreement that would support Trina's large-scale, multi-phase utility-scale project in Eastern China. Trina is also increasing head count in China.
Yingli Green Energy reported shipment growth to China increased by 74% over the previous quarter. The region represented 28% of total revenue, up from 14% in the previous quarter.
Still, Yingli and Trina both experienced a serious deterioration in its gross margins. Trina's gross margin was 0.8% last quarter. Yingli reported gross margins of negative 5.9%.
SunPower began discussions to leverage C7 technology for customers in China. The C7 concentrator product is important for cell efficiency.
Like Trina Solar, China-based LDK Solar Co. (LDK) cut its full-year sales and shipment projections. Facing $2.5 billion in debt that will mature in 12 to 18 months and falling margins, LDK cut nearly 2,600 positions during its third quarter.
To raise its presence in China, First Solar hired Bruce Yang as Managing Director and Vice President of Business Development. He will be responsible for initiating the developing the Ordos Project in the region. Most recently, First Solar announced a partnership with Zhenfa to supply 2 megawatts for projects in Xinjiang province.
4) Competitive Advantages
First Solar has a technology advantage over its competitors. The company developed tools to manage grid stability and reliability. Customers have Operations Center, a monitoring and control tool to manage the integration of photovoltaic power plants with the electrical grid. This allows customers to reliably and predictably incorporate First Solar's product to their energy grid. Competitors are not able to offer this. First Solar views this technology as expensive for competitors to replicate. The weak financial health of other players also ensures that competitors will not be able to provide the same offering in the near-future.
5) Reduced Operational Costs Nearly Complete
Previously implemented cost-cutting initiatives are nearly complete, which will reduce costs by $100 million to $120 million annually. First Solar incurred $440 million in restructuring charges so far. Next quarter, restructuring charges of between $20 million to $25 million will be incurred.
6) Healthy Backlog
First Solar has a nearly $9 billion backlog. $1.8 billion of the backlog that came during the year is from customers in sustainable markets. $3.4 billion of the backlog will be realized as sales by the end of 2014.
7) First Solar More Insulated than Others from Distressed Pricing
The distressed silicon pricing is taking place in markets outside of First Solar's core market. First Solar is not experiencing a direct impact by the pricing decline for silicon in the distributed rooftop market. The company remains committed to focus on grid-connected utility scale markets. The acquisition for more contracts may be slower, due to the project size, but First Solar enters debt-financed projects. This encourages demand and helps build market share for the company.
Niestetal, 04. Dezember 2012, Auf vielen Börsenportalen und in vielen Börsenbriefen wird vor den Aktien der SMA
... (automatisch gekürzt) ...
http://www.photovoltaik-guide.de/...tas-noch-oder-gehtas-nimmer-26041
Zeitpunkt: 05.12.12 09:47
Aktion: Kürzung des Beitrages
Kommentar: Urheberrechtsverletzung, ggf. Link-Einfügen nutzen - Bitte nur kurz zitieren und Vollzitate vermeiden.
Was für eine historische Chance, hier vor ein paar Monaten auf dem Niveau von 2006 einzusteigen. Heute ist FSLR wesentlich besser aufgestellt als damals. Die Erfolgsgeschichte mit dem neuen Geschäftsmodell (Projektgeschäft) ist in dieser Größenordnung bisher einzigartig.
Ich hoffe, dass es in unmittelbarer Zukunft noch ein paar "good news" gibt, z.B. weitere Projekte im Nahen Osten oder Beteiligung an den großes Solarfarmen in den USA oder gar eine aktive Beteiligung als Lieferant für Desert Tec. Dann, ja dann könnte es auch wieder auf 100 gehen. Weiter möchte ich aktuell nicht spekulieren!
So long!
Jetzt wird es wichtig. Für mich sieht es so aus, als ob die Sache ziemlich überkauft ist, zumindest kurzfristig. Ich bin raus, denn wenn wir ins Rutschen kommen, dann deutlicher Rücksetzer bis ca 27,50 und somit gute Nachkaufgelegenheit.
Wir sind am oberen Rand der Bollinger und weit von der SMA 50 weg.
Auch wenn wir wieder auf 27,50,- zurückfallen, ich bleibe erst mal investiert, weil die Gefahr da ist, dass das Ding einfach weiter nach oben zieht...
Die Zukunft wird es zeigen.
So long!
Dadurch könnte FSLR schon noch eine Weile mitsteigen. Außerdem steht demnächst der IPO von SolarCity an.
Bleibt weiterhin alles sehr interessant. Sollte der Kurs jetzt kurzfristig (nächste Woche) bis 37 USD steigen, würde ich evtl. auch mal rausgehen und auf einen Rücksetzer warten.
Das ist jetzt eine Frage der Strategie. Kurzfristig könnte es schon einen kleinen Rücksetzer geben. Für mich sieht es aber nicht danach aus. Noch nicht. Das Risiko jetzt vom fahrenden Zug abzuspringen ist mir zu groß. Mittelfristig geht es sicher noch bis knapp unter 40 USD weiter. Dann wird es allerdings interessant..
Ein Rücksetzer ist enorm wahrscheinlich zumal bei FSLR noch lange nicht raus ist, dass da alles super ist. Ich bin zwar auch positiv gestimmt, aber es gibt auch erhebliches Potential für Rückschläge. Insofern kann auch schnell wieder Nervosität im Wert sein. Und es sitzen viele mit erheblichen Gewinnen absprungbereit in Position. Da ich gehebelt unterwegs bin nutze ich solche 10-15% igen Rücksetzer ....
Nun denn, wir werden sehen....