TOP-Solargewinner nach der großen Krise
Gute Nachricht das auch in D wieder was läuft. Mal warten bis der Verkäufer fertig hat :)
http://www.forbes.com/sites/toddwoody/2012/12/11/...?partner=yahootix
U.S. Solar Installations Hit Record In Third Quarter
The U.S. solar boom rolled on in the third quarter with installations jumping 44% over the previous year to 684 megawatts and is on track to end 2012 with a record 3,200 megawatts, according to a report released Tuesday.
...
http://www.forbes.com/sites/toddwoody/2012/12/11/...?partner=yahootix
Nun, nach neuesten Schätzungen, wird die erste Bewertung bei ca. 500-600 Mio USD liegen - bei gerade mal knapp 200 Mio USD Umsatz im Jahr. Phönix kommt auf einen vergleichbaren Wert und hat einen MK von 7 Mio!!
Kann sich ja jeder seine Gedanken machen was passiert, wenn Phönix nun plötzlich Aufträge bekommt. Sollte der Boom in den USA stattfinden, wird davon auch Phönix Aufträge abgekommen, da sie dort ganz gut vernetzt sind.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/12/...ealEstateNews&rpc=43
SolarCity expects lower IPO price after delay
Wed Dec 12, 2012 1:34pm EST
* Now expects to sell 11.5 mln shares at $8 each
* Previously planned to sell 10.1 mln shares at $13-$15
* Pricing Wednesday night, trading Thursday - underwriter
By Olivia Oran and Nichola Groom
Dec 12 (Reuters) - SolarCity Corp, the top U.S. installer of residential solar systems, slashed the expected price of its initial public offering and said it would sell more shares a day after an underwriter said the deal had been postponed.
The move values the Elon Musk-backed startup at $585 million, almost half its earlier proposed valuation of nearly $1 billion.
SolarCity is among Silicon Valley's hottest clean technology companies, and its IPO has been widely anticipated in venture capital and solar energy circles.
The company has grown rapidly, largely because it allows customers to lease solar panels by paying a monthly fee and avoiding the hefty costs of an outright purchase. It has also benefited from a slide in the price of solar panels that has helped spur dramatic growth in U.S. solar installations.
But a gap between how SolarCity was marketed - as a fast growing technology firm - and investor perception of the company as more of a utility or power company play, likely contributed to price sensitivity, according to a source familiar with the deal.
While technology companies can often command higher valuations because of their growth potential, utility companies are typically regarded as safer investments and trade at lower multiples.
Investors had said previously that SolarCity's projected $1 billion valuation was too rich. That value would have made it the second most valuable U.S.-listed solar company behind panel manufacturer and project developer First Solar Inc, which has a market capitalization of $2.6 billion.
Under the new proposed valuation, SolarCity would be valued closer to SunPower Corp's $618 million market capitalization.
SolarCity said on Wednesday it now expects to sell 11.5 million shares at $8 each. It had previously planned to sell 10.1 million shares priced between $13 and $15 each.
The offering is likely to be priced on Wednesday night and start trading on Thursday on the Nasdaq, an underwriter said.
The company said in a filing that existing stockholders would also sell about 65,000 shares. ()
The clean technology sector has suffered some recent high-profile flameouts with the bankruptcies of solar company Solyndra and battery maker A123 Systems.
Though solar installations are growing dramatically in the United States, investors are also gun shy after pouring money into solar manufacturers whose share prices collapsed due to industry oversupply and a sharp slide in the price of their products.
"You've got the fiscal cliff uncertainty, market uncertainty and misunderstanding about which part of the solar value chain is expanding and seeing growth," said Ron Pernick, founder of Portland, Oregon-based cleantech research firm Clean Edge. "Markets are staying pretty steady but I still think there is an undercurrent around all of the uncertainty. I don't see how that would help any company seeking to go public right now."
SolarCity was promoted as the most promising alternative energy IPO candidate since the debut of Musk's electric car company, Tesla Motors Inc, in 2010.
Technology entrepreneur and PayPal co-founder Musk is SolarCity's chairman and the first cousin of its co-founders, Lyndon and Peter Rive. He currently holds a 31 percent stake in the company and said he will buy $15 million of SolarCity stock in the IPO.
SolarCity's revenue has more than quadrupled in the last five years.
The San Mateo, California-based company reported a net loss of $80 million on revenue of $103.4 million for the nine months ending Sept. 30, 2012.
Google Inc and U.S. Bancorp have helped finance some SolarCity projects, but investors said that determining an IPO price was challenging because there are few publicly traded direct competitors with which to compare it
Aktuell ist immernoch viel Gefahr und Unsicherheit verbunden mit den Investments wie Solarworld, Phönix Solar, Centrosolar, etc. Fakt ist, dass hier niemand versprechen kann, dass diese Unternehmen nicht pleite gehen. Sie sind nicht profitabel, teilweise im Vergleich hoch verschuldet und mir sollte erst einmal jemand erklären, wie Centrosolar seine Anleihe nach Auslaufen refinanzieren will, bevor man über höhere Bewertungen spricht.
Ich kenne Phönix Solar nicht, aber mutmaße, das ist hier das Selbe. Einzig First Solar ist aktuell profitabel, nicht besonders verschuldet und hat imho eine definitive Überlebenschance. Die anderen kämpfen.
Und wie 2013 wird, weiß keiner so genau.....
So long!
First Solar Releases 92.5-Watt Thin-Film PV Module
Newest FS Series 3 Module is Latest Milestone on Cost-Efficiency Roadmap
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) today announced the release of its most advanced thin-film photovoltaic (PV) module, the Series 3 FS-392, which is rated at 92.5 watts. The new FS-392 module maintains all the existing IEC certifications and UL listings for the Series 3 family, including UL listing for 1000-volt systems.
“The FS-392 demonstrates the success of First Solar’s R&D investment to drive higher and higher module conversion efficiencies into production,” said Tom Kuster, First Solar Vice President of Product Management and System Technology. “This increase in module efficiency, coupled with our thin-film technology’s real-world yield advantage when compared to crystalline silicon PV, results in higher energy density and lower levelized cost of energy (LCOE).”
One of the drivers of First Solar modules’ performance advantage over crystalline silicon solar modules is a lower temperature coefficient, delivering higher energy yields at elevated operating temperatures typical of utility-scale power plants in sunny regions. For full details, please see a white paper on this topic, which can be downloaded at www.firstsolar.com/Innovation/Advanced-Thin-Film-Modules.
Die Dinger müssen effizienter und billiger werden und immer einen wesentlichen Abstand zu den kristallienen Zellen haben. Dann wird es auch etwas mit den Nachbarn ;)
Wie immer gilt: Hin und her macht Taschen leer.
First Solar Inc. have released its most advanced thin-film photovoltaic (PV) module, the Series 3 FS-392, which is rated at 92.5 watts. The new FS-392 module maintains all the existing IEC certifications and UL listings for the Series 3 family, including UL listing for 1000-volt systems.
“The FS-392 demonstrates the success of First Solar’s R&D investment to drive higher and higher module conversion efficiencies into production,” says Tom Kuster, First Solar Vice President of Product Management and System Technology. “This increase in module efficiency, coupled with our thin-film technology’s real-world yield advantage when compared to crystalline silicon PV, results in higher energy density and lower levelized cost of energy (LCOE).”
One of the drivers of First Solar modules’ performance advantage over crystalline silicon solar modules is a lower temperature coefficient, delivering higher energy yields at elevated operating temperatures typical of utility-scale power plants in sunny regions.
http://www.onlinetes.com/first-solar-thin-film-module-121612.aspx
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Das scheint sie wohl zu werden, die technisch längst fällige Korrektur.
"Hin und her" macht übrigens keine Taschen leer, wenn man es mit Sinn und Verstand macht, also wenn man Bewegungen voraus handelt und nicht als Lemming hinterher läuft . Gerade bei First Solar konnte man mit Spitzen-Trading enorme Gewinne erzielen.
Wie auch immer, es ist spannend, wie die Woche verlaufen wird und wie heftig der Wert korregieren wird. Entscheidende Marken werden 30$ und 27,50$ sein.
Blödsinn, das heutige minus kommt von den Bashern "The Cost "!! Die wollen nochmal günstig nachkaufen, das ist alles. Deshalb muss man First solar schlecht machen, und wenn der Kurs fällt, dann bring ich eben einen positiven Bericht ! Frechheit !!
Biggest Reason Why First Solar Is A Short - It's The Cost, Stupid
Introduction
The Solar Industry is one of the most interesting and dynamic industries out there with changes playing out in multiple dimensions. First of all there is the news of bankruptcies and job losses almost every day as the massive solar capacity glut works itself out. Then there is the cacophony of the trade fights between the major countries like China, USA and Europe. In this noise the fundamentals of the solar companies and the industry is being missed by investors who run up and down the stocks based on single news point such as China increasing support or the US imposing duties.
The First Solar (FSLR) stock has seen a dramatic run up in recent times as the company has announced a number of big solar project wins in recent times. Compared to the other solar companies which are making huge losses, First Solar profits in the solar industry have stood out. However investors are missing out on how the fundamentals of the company are deteriorating each quarter. We see the increasing stock price of the company as a great opportunity to either short the company or for a pair trade with a beaten down but fundamentally good solar stock.
Biggest Reason why First Solar is a short
It's the Cost, Stupid - First Solar had a massive cost advantage over other solar companies in 2008 which was almost a difference of 50%. This was mainly due to the high costs of polysilicon which used to make 80% GM for its producers like MEMC (WFR). However that cost disadvantage for crystalline silicon solar panel players has gone away permanently with a massive amount of low cost polysilicon capacity being built in the last few years. Along with the decrease in raw material prices, the processing costs for silicon solar modules have also decreased at a mind boggling rate. From $1.2/watt processing cost in 2009-10, the processing cost for modules has gone down to 47c/watt . That is a 60% decrease in processing cost in 2 years . While First Solar has also managed to decrease costs by about 10% every year, it is far from matching the cost decrease in silicon solar panels. Chinese solar panel costs (Jinko (JKS), Canadian Solar(CSIQ) , Trina Solar (TSL)) have gone down to 60c/watt while First Solar is still stuck at 65c/watt for its lower efficiency solar panels.
Other Reasons Why First Solar is a short
- First Solar can't sell solar panels anymore - First Solar is first and foremost a solar panel seller , but it can't sell its solar panels outside of its inhouse solar system business. The reason is that you can buy higher efficiency silicon panels from Chinese companies at a lower costs. The only places First Solar is selling solar panels in decent numbers is India where muddled up solar policy has given thin film solar panels an advantage. But that won't remain for long as India plans to impose duties on imports of all solar panels ( thin film and silicon alike) .
There is a very strong possibility that it will eventually have to shut down its entire thin film solar capacity sometime in the future. This will lead to billions of dollars in impairments.
- First Solar has no presence in China - First Solar's plan to build a giant 2 GW solar power plant in the city of Ordos,Inner Mongolia in China has been hanging in uncertainty since 2009 .The project was hyped by the Chinese and USA media as the dawn of a new cooperation with the world's two biggest economies in the Green Energy area. However, its already 2013 and there is no sign of any activity. Washington Post has reported that the Inner Mongolian Government has having second thoughts about the building of the plant. Asian countries like Japan and China are notorious for protecting their domestic companies through implicit means. China will be a 7-8 GW market in the next year or so and First Solar will have negligible marketshare. Like the wind turbine companies Vestas, Suzlon and Gamesa , foreign solar companies like Sunpower and First Solar will only get a tidbit. First Solar has also failed to win any big projects in Japan which is the fastest growing big solar market.
- Valuation - First Solar is approaching a market cap of $2.8 billion compared t the biggest Chiense solar companies with equivalent or more solar panel sales of around $300 million. The easiest trade is to buy a basket of the big Chinese majors and short First Solar. The company make look cheap on a EV/Sales, P/E basis but as we very well know the Sales and Earnings in fast moving Technology companies don't take long to disappear
- Warranty and Product Issues - First Solar suffers from chronic problems with warranties and product recalls. It keeps shelling out millions of dollars in one time costs repeatedly. No other big solar panel company suffers from these problems.
- First Solar can't sell to the rooftop solar segment - First Solar's lower efficiency solar panels can't compete in the residential rooftop market. The reason is that the limited space on rooftops require higher efficiency solar panels to make the maximum use of the real estate. As countries shift more and more towards distributed rooftop solar , First Solar will lose out more and more
- Technology Disadvantage - First Solar makes solar panels using Cadmium Tellerium (Cd-Te) thin film solar technology. Most of the other big solar companies use the more mainstream crystalline silicon solar panel technology. Most of the solar equipment makers like Applied Materials, GTAT and Meyer Burgher also research and sell equipment targeted towards the silicon solar panel market. What this means is the R&D dollars spend each year on silicon solar panel is many times more than what is spend on Cd-Te technology. This gives a huge advantage to silicon solar technology to the disadvantage of First Solar . Note other Cd-Te companies like Abound Solar are bankrupt or have given up on the solar energy market (GE)
- First Solar DOE funded huge profitable solar farms are one time only - The biggest reason why First Solar is profitable today is that it won huge solar panel farm projects funded by DOE . These projects have given outsized returns but this profit stream is one time only and will never be repeated . The newer solar farms being built by First Solar have very low profit margins ( ~10-15% GM) . They are also being built in politically risky countries where the returns are not guaranteed. The sole advantage of First Solar is its solar system and development business. However that advantage is being eroded as this business has very low entry barriers as other solar companies like Canadian Solar, Trina Solar have also started to focus on their own solar development arms. The other problem is that solar project development business is a capital intensive ,risky and a low margin business with lumpy revenues. You are better off buying a pure play EPC and construction company like Fluor than First Solar.
Summary
It's fashionable to short the solar industry given the dramatic price declines in stock prices. However, the industry will bottom eventually as the prospects of the industry are one of the best in the world. These prospects have led to the current situation of every Tom, Dick and Harry jumping into the industry (think GE (GE), Siemens (SI), LG, Honda (HMC), Saint Gobain ). This had led to a huge churn in the industry as the small and unfocused companies are getting out. Despite the massive losses, the best companies are growing stronger as the competition is forced to downsize or get out.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/...-it-s-the-cost-stupid?source=yahoo
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)
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Wertpapier: Trina Solar |
Für mich Grund genug um First Solar nachzukaufen !
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Mit Wertungen wie "Blödsinn" solltest insbesondere Du sehr vorsichtig sein.....
Meinst Du wirklich ein alberner Artikel auf seekingalpha könne den Kurs beeinflussen - lol!
FSLR ist technisch einfach überkauft, auch unter Berücksichtigung der Short-Situation. Eine Korrektur war überfällig und ohne dramatische News wird sich diese auch noch fortsetzen.
scheint durchaus möglich, wenngleich ich den Eindruck habe, dass das ganze noch sehr stabil bullish aussieht. Der Kurs hält sich sehr hartnäckig um die 32 USD und ist bisher nicht nachhaltig nach unten durchgebrochen. Das Aufwärtsmomentum sehe ich immer noch intakt. Ich muss allerdings auch dazusagen, dass ich nicht der Mega-Charttechniker bin, da kennt sich beatthedealer sicher deutlich besser aus.
Ich bin sehr gespannt wie es die kommenden Tage weitergeht, glaube aber, dass wir die 40 USD bald sehen werden.
Chart ist zwar vom 27.11.12 aber das haut hin.
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Thin Film Intelligence Brief 5 – 18 December 2012
First Solar launches its Series 3 module Companies and organisations mentioned: First Solar, Duke Energy Renewables, Gato Montes Solar Power Project, Vis-solis, Solmotion, University of Arizona, Stion, Global Photonic Energy, University of Michigan
http://news.pv-insider.com/thin-film-pv/...%E2%80%93-18-december-2012
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http://www.deraktionaer.de/aktien-deutschland/...-und-co-19070559.htm
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chart-first_solar.png (verkleinert auf 77%)
