Der Doomsday Bären-Thread
Wie schnell und zügig es weiter abwärts gehen kann, zeigt die letzte US-Rezession (Dez. 2000 bis März 2001, siehe Chart unten).
Barry Ritholtz Blog
Q4 Earnings Drop Below 10%
With 362 S&P500 companies reporting Q4 earnings, year over year growth is now 9.3%.
An interesting take on this how earnigns are being reported as the Quarter progresses. Birinyi Associates notes that "last quarter, earnings growth steadily climbed to 22.8% as more and more companies reported. This quarter, however, the number has steadily declined since early January."
From today's FT:
"The percentage of US companies failing to meet Wall Street's earnings expectations has reached the highest level in more than two years, fuelling fears that corporate America's record run of profit growth will come to an abrupt end.
Concerns of a slowdown in corporate profitability – one of the key reasons for the stock market's record-breaking streak – have been heightened by companies' increasingly bearish outlook on business prospects.
More than 22 per cent of the 400-plus S&P 500 companies to have reported results for the fourth quarter of 2006 failed to meet Wall Street expectations. This is the highest level of "misses" since the third quarter of 2004, according to Reuters Estimates.
The spike in earnings disappointments increases the chances that corporate America will end a three-and-a-half year run of quarterly double-digit profit growth in the last quarter of 2006 rather than at the beginning of 2007, as widely expected."
Sources:
US slowdown looms as groups miss targets
Francesco Guerrera
FT 1:40 a.m. ET Feb 12, 2007
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17104615/
Chart courtesy of Birinyi Associates
Angehängte Grafik:
sp500_earnings_21007.png (verkleinert auf 97%)
sp500_earnings_21007.png (verkleinert auf 97%)
IMPLODE-O-METER
http://ml-implode.com/
Der ABX-Index (Junkbonds mit Rating unter BBB-) befindet sich zurzeit im freien Fall. Dies hat hat die Kosten für die Kreditabsicherung (CDS) bereits um 1000 Basispunkte nach oben schnellen lassen! (unten)
Während die US-Aktienmärkte immer noch wie die Karnevals-Gecken "Goldilock" feiern (Dow Jones schloss Freitag auf ATH), ist es nach Roubini nur noch eine Frage der Zeit, bis die Housing-Krise auf den Arbeitsmarkt durchschlägt. Donnerstag lag die Zahl der Erstanträge bereits um 14 % höher als erwartet:
Veröffentlichung der Zahlen zu den US-amerikanischen Erstanträgen auf Arbeitslosenhilfe ("Initial Jobless Claims") für die Vorwoche: Die Zahl der Erstanträge ist in den USA auf 357.000 gestiegen. Erwartet wurden 310.000 bis 315.000 neue Anträge nach zuvor 313.000 (revidiert von 311.000).
Dass die Krise wie üblich kleingeredet wird, ist in USA übliche Praxis - und letztlich verständlich, wenn man die weltweit größte Schuldner-Nation ist. Ziehen verängstigte Ausländer ihre Ersparnisse ab, fällt das "Kartenhaus auf Pump" in sich zusammen. Die 11,3 Mrd. Netto-Kapitalabflüsse aus USA im Dezember (TIC-Zahlen) deuten bereits stark darauf hin. Sie kamen zustande, weil Ausländer (vor allem Deutsche!) in großem Stil US-Aktien verkauften:
http://www.ariva.de/board/245194?pnr=3095170#jump3095170
Inzwischen aber lässt sich die Krise kaum noch leugnen - erkennbar an der schärferen Wortwahl von Wall Street Insidern: War im Sub-Prime-Sektor anfangs noch von einer "Korrektur" die Rede, so sprechen sie heute von "Gemetzel", "Kollaps" und "Kredit-Crunch". Doch all dies sei, so die aktuelle Abwiegelstrategie, ja nur auf den Sub-Prime-Markt beschränkt. Die Gefahr, dass der Prime-Markt "angesteckt" wird, wird abgestritten - NOCH.
Sub-Prime "Meltdown”, ABX “Carnage” and the Risk of a “Credit Crunch”
Nouriel Roubini
Feb 16, 2007
When growth optimists such as the wise Richard Berner of Morgan Stanley (not just Roach, their resident long term bear) start talking about a sub-prime and ABX “meltdown”; when the terms “carnage” and “time bomb” are used by mainstream observers to describe the sub-prime and ABX market; and when the same Berner needs to write a long piece to convince you that there will be no “credit crunch” following the sub-prime meltdown you know that some serious trouble may be brewing. The trouble takes the form of three problems:
1. Risk of the subprime "meltdown" becoming contagious to prime mortgages;
2. Risk of the beginning of a broader credit crunch;
3. Risk of the ABX "carnage" leading to more serious losses and implications for
credit markets.
Of course last week many investment banks had conference calls to reassure their clients with the message that the subprime meltdown is contained, that other credit spreads are holding in spite of the free fall of the ABX (BBB-) indices, and that there is very little risk of a broader credit crunch.
That optimistic scenario is of course possible and we do not know yet how these credit markets will behave over the next few months. But the same cycle of minimizing the potential risks from the housing fallout has occurred all along since last year: the housing recession was first defined as “housing slowdown” and is now argued to be “bottoming out” based on relatively little evidence; today’s subprime “meltdown” was yesterday’s subprime “correction”; and today’s worries of a “credit crunch” are widely dismissed as unlikely.
But consider the following issues. Normally when a sector like housing or real estate or tech goes into a boom and bust cycle, the “real cycle” precedes the “credit cycle”. In other terms we would have expected that weakness in housing would lead first to large job losses, lower income generation, higher unemployment first (the “real” cycle). Only when the “real” cycle is underway one would usually expect – as in the 1980s S&L fiasco – that a “credit” cycle would be triggered and emerge leading to further real and financial distress.
Instead the most surprising thing about this housing bust and subprime meltdown is how the “credit” cycle started much earlier than the “real” cycle and much more rapidly than anyone would have ever suspected. Now in an economy with still high growth, still high job creation, still very low unemployment rate, still high income generation we are already observing massive increases in subprime defaults and foreclosures, 20 subprime lenders going out of business in two months, the ABX going into free fall and the cost of insuring against the BBB- tranche of the ABX index going to a spread relative to LIBOR of over 1000bps. So, if all this happening in what the consensus terms as a “Goldilocks economy” what would happen if the economy – as likely – will start to slow down more in 2007? How much more carnage can we expect in many sectors and markets when the economy is weaker than in recent months? [-> siehe dazu auch # 3526 ]
The fact that the downward “credit” cycle has emerged so fast and so sharply in a still “strong” economy is the most important signal that this sub-prime mess cannot be easily dismissed as a niche problem that will have no contagious effects on the rest of the economy and of financial markets.
So let me explain in detail why there are meaningful risks that sub-prime meltdown could infect prime mortgages, why we could be at the beginning of a more serious credit crunch for consumers, and why there is a risk that the ABX carnage could spillover to other credit markets…
(Auszug, Rest nur für Abonnenten...)
Der ABX-Index ist ein Preisindex für Junkbonds mit Rating unter BBB-. Er befindet sich im freien Fall.
Von 19. Januar bis 16. Februar fiel er von 97,5 % auf 82,5 %. Das ist ein Rückgang von 15 % in nur einem Monat!
(Quelle: http://www.markit.com/information/affiliations/abx/history)
Angehängte Grafik:
ec50e3129523a449a5427c437e9.png
ec50e3129523a449a5427c437e9.png
Servus, J.B.
--------------------------------------------------
"If any man seeks for greatness, let him forget greatness and ask for truth, and he will find both." (Horace Mann)
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Angehängte Grafik:
EURO.png (verkleinert auf 93%)
EURO.png (verkleinert auf 93%)
Bad Data Begins To Mount...
Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! 9 degrees on my car's thermostat this morning... You would think that with it being that cold, it would have helped to wake me up when I stepped outside this morning... But, no... My motor just won't get started this morning...
But it's Friday, and a 3-day weekend for yours truly, so maybe I can muster up enough energy to get through the day on that thought! There was some very important data that printed yesterday in the U.S. and the outcome wasn't dollar friendly... But for the most part, we saw the currencies go right back to a tight trading range, with the euro on terra firma above 1.31.
Front and Center on the data yesterday was the awful showing of the TIC Data... Recall, I've talked about how this data, which measures the ability of the U.S. to attract investment to finance the Current Account Deficit, had been trending down for the past year. Well... While I'm skeptical of this printing of the TIC Data, it does show that the investment flow went NEGATIVE in December... That's right! NEGATIVE! Obviously, there could have been some year-end "Window Dressing" by money managers... But still, NEGATIVE? That's pretty ugly stuff for the U.S.' ability to attract financing...
Not only did the buying stop by foreigners in December, but the outflows were huge! Domestic investors increased their buying of long-term overseas securities from $37 billion to a record $46 billion. This is a classic illustration of a "lack of funding"... So, the question I asked the desk was... "Why isn't the euro skyrocketing to 1.35?"
Well... The severity of the drop was such that it had to leave a lot of traders scratching their heads and wondering if this is just a rogue printing of this data, or what? Obviously, traders are taking the approach that this will be reversed next month... I'm not so certain of that, though... Look at the previous month's revision... Overall flows showed that the prior month was revised lower from $74.9 billion to $70.5 billion. Uh-Oh...
Capacity Utilization didn't lend a hand to the dollar either, falling to the lowest level since last February... And Industrial Production? Don't look for any help here, either! Industrial Production fell .5%, and marks the 4th monthly decline in the last 5 months... The Philly Fed Index collapsed... And then... The trap door sprung on the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims as they rose to 357K last week... Poor weather was blamed for this rise... But I'm not buying it... Look around at the data this week... Poor this, bad that... It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas... Really... Recall December? The data began to look bad, and the negative Nellies all came out of the woodwork, calling for a rate cut from the Fed, and the dollar suffered.
We end the week today with PPI, Housing Starts, and the U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence... Should be more dollar negative stuff...
OK... Enough on that bad data in the U.S.! That stuff can get quite boring, don't you agree? Anyway... After seeing the mistake the Riksbank (Sweden's Central Bank) made yesterday talking about an end to rate hikes... The Norges Bank (Norway) Gov. decided he would show the Riksbank how it's supposed to be done! Norway's Central Bank Gov. Svein Gjedrem said on Thursday he envisaged raising interest rates gradually to more than 5 percent from 3.75 percent now to calm a booming economy and curb a pick-up in inflation.
That comment put some major wind in the Krone's sails, and it set sail to a very nice performance vs. the dollar on the day. That's the way I like it... Money for nothing and the... No wait... I love it when a plan comes together! This is what I've been telling people about Norway for over a year now...
That strong Japanese GDP that posted on Wednesday helped the yen to a strong performance vs. the dollar yesterday... And believe or not, there wasn't any profit taking overnight! WOW! Of course the recent trend with yen is that it strengthens and then gives it back... So, today's performance should give us some indication on whether this rally is going to continue of fizzle out.
Well... Big Ben Bernanke was back on the docket for the "boys" on the "hill" yesterday... Recall, the day before he said that "inflation risks diminish"... Well, I guess he got a memo after the markets took the dollar to the woodshed because of that statement... Because yesterday he reminded the "boys" that inflation rises, the Fed is prepared to raise rates... Just a little band-aid, eh, Big Ben?
Big Ben also gave the Democrat-controlled "hill" a little fuel for their fire when he said that the Chinese renminbi remains undervalued... No Duh! Now, there's a bon-a-fide genius! OK... I better back off, I don't want to hear from June that I was a little hard on the Beaver! Anyway... The renminbi did gain on those words, so it wasn't wasted away again in Margaritaville!
The renminbi now trades at the highest level since breaking the peg in July of 2005... I said last year that I believed that we would see 7.50 from the renminbi before this year ended... It now sits at 7.7445...
Currencies today: A$ .7850, kiwi .6955, C$ .86, euro 1.3130, sterling 1.95, Swiss .81, ISK 67.15, rand 7.18, krone 6.1275, SEK 7.0650, forint 192.44, zloty 2.98, koruna 21.54, yen 119.20, baht 33.05, sing 1.5320, HKD 7.8130, INR 44.04, China 7.7445, pesos 10.9660, dollar index 84.21, silver $13.93, and gold... $666.20
That's it for today... Mardi Gras in St. Louis tomorrow... It's going to be a cold one! Monday is a national holiday called Presidents' Day... Isn't it a shame that we don't celebrate the great presidents with individual holidays? They are all just lumped together in one day that has come down to a 3-day weekend that is known for great mattress sales... UGH! Just two weeks before I head to Jupiter, Florida, for my first trip there of the spring! YAHOO! Have a great Friday, and 3-day weekend!
Chuck Butler
President
EverBank World Markets
1-800-926-4922
1-314-647-3837
www.everbank.com
PFENNIG DISCLOSURE
Er weiß natürlich, dass eine auf extreme Geldmengen-Expansion angelegte Wirtschaft wie die der USA notwendigerweise inflationär ist. (Die EZB bleibt ja aus dem gleichem Grund stur auf Erhöhungskurs.) Folglich müsste er, um die Geldmenge zu reduzieren, die Zinsen erhöhen, was er ja auch oft genug angedroht hat. Das kann er andererseits nicht, ohne den Housing-Markt vollends zu killen. So bleibt es bei Verbal-Warnungen.
Bernanke wird die Zinsen deshalb vorerst da lassen, wo sie jetzt sind (in etwa ein Kompromiss-Niveau) und ansonsten je nach Lage opportunistisch argumentieren - mal zinsbullisch, mal zinsbärisch.
Sehr wichtig für die USA ist das Konsumentenvertrauen, dass Freitag von 96,9 auf 93,3 fiel - immerhin um rund 3,5 %:
Veröffentlichung der vorläufigen Zahlen zum Index der Verbraucherstimmung der Universtät Michigan ("Michigan University Consumer Sentiment") für Februar 2007: Der vorläufige Verbraucherstimmungsindex der Uni Michigan für die USA notiert im Februar bei 93,3. Erwartet wurde er im Bereich 96,5 bis 97,5. Im Vormonat hatte der Index noch bei 96,9 notiert.
Sollte dies den US-Verbraucher aus seinem Kaufrausch reißen, wäre das schlecht für Amerika, denn die US-Wirtschaft basiert zu 2/3 auf privatem Konsum. Schlecht wäre das auch für China, das u. a. deshalb so schnell wächst, weil die Amis ein Großteil dessen, was dort produziert wird, "wegkonsumieren".
Ich vermute daher, Bernanke versucht zurzeit vor allem, den US-Verbraucher bei Laune zu halten. Da fast alle Amerikaner (zumindest die Hausbesitzer) auch Aktien oder Aktienfonds haben, schafft Bernanke mit weiteren Indexanstiegen das Kunststück, die Illusion des "Reich-Fühlens" auch dann weiter aufrecht zu erhalten, wenn die Hauspreise purzeln. Das Depot fängt die "virtuellen Verluste" bei den Häusern wieder auf.
Dabei setzt Bernanke offenbar auch auf Charttechnik. Die Rallye muss auf Teufel komm heraus am Laufen gehalten werden, weil jeder Trendbruch ein Short-Seller-Fiasko auslösen könnte. Daher die positive Stimmungsmache trotz übler Wirtschaftszahlen (z. B. 14 % mehr Arbeitlose, Poru. Ich nehme auch an, dass dazu noch das PPT im Hintergrund Kurskosmetik betreibt, um Downtrends gar nicht erst aufkommen zu lassen (zu gefährlich!). Doch je höher die Indizes auf diese Weise "hochgepäppelt" werden, desto Crash-artiger wird der Absturz ablaufen. 6 % Anstiege an einem Tag bei Gurken wie Daimler-Chrylser, Ford und GM sind eher ein schlechtes Zeichen (zuviele Idioten am Markt).
Jedenfalls dürfte klar sein, dass Bernanke und die Fed "parteiisch" sind - pro Amerika. Die tun alles was sie können (inkl. Beschwichtigungen, Schönreden von Zahlen und Problemen sowie Goldilock-Propaganda), um die Krise so weit wie möglich aufzuschieben. Das war ja auch schon immer Greenspans Taktik.
Bernankes Hinweis auf abflauende Inflation (kaum vorstellbar bei der extremen Geldmengenvermehrung) ist daher ein wohl kalkuliertes Signal an den Aktienmarkt, Zinssenkungen einzupreisen (die dann gar nicht kommen müssen!) - was Aktien bekanntlich Flügel verleiht.
Bullen wie J. Cramer von Street.com frohlocken sogar schon mit Blick auf die Housing-Krise. Sie sehen dort ein "Gemetzel", das mehrere Zinssenkungen der Fed erforderlich macht. Ergebnis wäre dann eine Fortsetzung der Blasenwirtschaft von 2003/2004, als die Dollar-Zinsen auf viel zu niedrigen 1 % standen.
Mir scheint jedoch wahrscheinlicher, dass die Krise im Housingmarkt zu Kreditverteuerung und Risikoaversion führt, die auch dem Aktienmarkt Geld entzieht und schon ziemlich bald zu einer größeren Korrektur führen dürfte.
Kommentar zum Chart unten von B. Ritzholtz:
Using the most recent J.P. Morgan estimates (chart 2), we see that GDP has actually been on the downslide since peaking in late 2003/early 2004. If we were to add the Import/Export data to this, that dings this even further downwards -- We are looking at a GDP of potentially 2-2.5%. If the economic deceleration continues on (as I suspect it will), there is a very real possibility we will see GDP slip to 1-2% by mid 2007.
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Der Chart unten zeigt die prozentuale BIP-Zuwachsrate nach einer aktuellen JP-Morgan-Prognose. Darin wurde die BIP-Wachstumserwartung aufgrund der im Dezember stark gefallenen Lagerbestände nach unten revidiert.
Im Goldilock-Szenario mit konstantem 3 % Wachstum würde die rote BIP-Linie waagrecht verlaufen. Sinkt sie, spricht dies für rückläufiges Gewinnwachstum (siehe auch # 3526).
Fällt das BIP entsprechend den Abschätzungen von B. Ritholtz bis Mitte 2007 auf 1 bis 2 %, fehlt nicht mehr viel bis zu den Tiefständen der letzten Rezession in 2001/2002 (rosa Fläche links).
Der blaue waagrechte Strich (2003/2004) zeigt die Periode, in der die Fed die Zinsen auf dem Tiefstand von 1 % beließ. Dies führte erwartungsgemäß zu einem starken BIP-Wachstum (TOP im Sommer 2004), allerdings auch zu stark gestiegener Inflation. Die 17 Zinserhöhungen der Fed in der Folgezeit auf jetzt 5,25 % haben die Inflation wieder etwas gedämpft, der Wirtschaft aber zugleich den "Billig-Geld-Stimulus" genommen.
FAZIT: Aufgeschoben ist nicht aufgehoben. Irgendwann wird die Zeche für den Jahr-2000-Überschwang fällig.
Angehängte Grafik:
gdp_q4_rev.jpg (verkleinert auf 79%)
gdp_q4_rev.jpg (verkleinert auf 79%)
Wirtschaftsforscher rechnen mit einem deutlichen Rückgang der Arbeitslosenzahl bis zum Bundestagswahljahr 2009. "Ich halte es durchaus für möglich, dass wir 2009 an die Drei-Millionen-Grenze kommen", sagte der Chefvolkswirt der DZ Bank, Hans Jäckel, dem Berliner "Tagesspiegel".
"Wenn der Wachstumsprozess nicht gestört wird, kann der Arbeitsmarkt 2009 in Richtung drei Millionen laufen", sagte auch Michael Hüther, Direktor des Instituts der Deutschen Wirtschaft (IW), der Zeitung. Er halte es auch für möglich, dass Deutschland 2009 erstmals seit vierzig Jahren wieder einen ausgeglichen Staatshaushalt vorweisen kann. Für das laufende Jahr wollen auch diese Ökonomen ihre Wachstumsprognosen nach oben korrigieren. "Es spricht einiges dafür, dass wir bei unserer Prognose Ende April Richtung zwei Prozent gehen", sagte Hüther. Derzeit geht sein Institut offiziell noch von 1,5 Prozent aus.
Auch die DZ-Bank erwartet ein stärkeres Wachstum für 2007. "Wir sind gerade dabei, unsere Prognose von 1,7 auf 2,0 Prozent zu erhöhen", sagte Jäckel. Grund sei vor allem das Wachstum 2006, das mit 2,7 Prozent deutlich höher ausgefallen war, als von den Ökonomen erwartet.
Quelle;n-tv
also jetzt erst recht long
Die rote Linie im unteren Chartbild ist vermutlich nur falsch beschriftet
statt qc_xaverage(200) also 20.
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Angehängte Grafik:
oexpcr.png (verkleinert auf 86%)
oexpcr.png (verkleinert auf 86%)
Es gibt unter Shortsellern sogar Charttechniker, die den Anstieg des Put/Call-Verhältnisses als eines von mehreren Einstiegssignalen betrachten. Zählst Du auch dazu?
weichgefedert auf Beamtensesseln, fangen abgefahrene Wirtschaftsforscher wieder mal
an zu träumen und wagen blumige Prognosen, die durch nichts belegbar sind.
Wer holt diese irren Flachbrettbohrer von der Palme runter ????
A. die Produktivität nimmt weiter zu
B. Große Unternehmen wie Telekom Siemens Alcatel und und und entlassen weiter Personal
C. Statistiken der Arbeitsagentur sind geschönt, da sie viele Niedriglohnjobs
umfassen
D. Lt. Uni Berichten studieren viele Leute die wenig nachgefragten Geisteswissenschaften
Deutschland lebt von erhöhten Stuereinnahmen.
Ich frage mich langsam , ob ich im falschen Film gelandet bin. Ist das echt ?
Alles ist gut und Bären sind shice......
The recessionists are wrong. The bears are wrong. The pessimists are wrong. The doom-and-gloom crowd is wrong. The Democrats who rule the roost on Capitol Hill are wrong.We are witnessing the Bush-Bernanke boom, and it’s still the greatest story never told.
http://article.nationalreview.com/print/?q=ZTRiNWRlZDYzZmRjZDQ0ZGEzNzAwODlhY2VjZjI3MjQ=
......und Psychonauten sowieso
A case can also be made that the cult of the bear is based on primal emotion more than any other factor. Ask any super bear why he is bearish in the face of a strong bull market, year after year, and after you've stripped away all the intellectual pabulum and excuses it really boils down to this: he is bearish because it "feels right." Bearishness for most bear cult members is a "feel good" experience. It is stimulating for one to think that he's part of a small cadre of wise observers who "know better than the careless herd" of stock market investors. The perma-bears believe that theirs is a just cause and that their patience will be amply rewarded in due time. They believe they will be the ones to "inherit the earth" when the prophesied stock market apocalypse arrives and share prices come crashing down.
When viewed from this standpoint the cult-like attributes of the bear's religion come clearly into focus. More than once a high profile perma-bear has been overheard exhorting his followers to "keep the faith." To borrow a term from a famous theologian, bearishness, for many, is a "religious affection."
Wirklichen Ärger provoziert aber Roubinis härteste Prognose: Spätestens im Frühjahr 2007 werde die US-Wirtschaft in eine schwere Rezession geraten und die Weltökonomie erschüttern, schrieb er im vergangenen Juli."
Auszug vom 08.12.2006
http://www.tagesspiegel.de/dritte-seite/archiv/08.12.2006/2950361.asp
Hier kann man blind (nehmt einfach den Würfel) shorten.
und wenn man ein noch grössere idiot sein will, würfelt man geht mit der aktie long u. wird reich.....
mfg
ath
taktik ist es wenn ein affe oder wenn dieser nicht zur verfügung steht, ich die würfel schwinge...
mfg
ath
http://www.ariva.de/board/245194?pnr=3068505#jump3068505
http://www.ariva.de/board/283077?pnr=3100519#jump3100519
...und sich nach dem 14,3-%-Einbruch der US-Baubeginne im Januar als pures Wunschdenken entpuppt hat.
ECONOMIC PREVIEW
Inflation not rising, but it's not falling, either
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Feb 18, 2007
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Inflation is topic No. 1 at the Federal Reserve. And it will be the main topic of economic analysis in the coming week, because the consumer price index for January is the only economic indicator of note.
The news should be good, but not too good. The inflation rate doesn't appear to be rising, but neither does it appear to be falling to point that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke can breathe a sigh of relief.
The CPI has been driven by energy prices for the past four months, and January will be no exception. With energy prices falling slightly in January, the economists we survey expect the CPI to nudge higher by just 0.1%, after a 0.5% rise in December, no change in November and 0.5% declines in October and September.
The more important question is what core inflation is doing. Core inflation, you'll recall, ignores movements in food and energy prices in order to get a look at where underlying inflation is heading.
The core CPI probably rose 0.2% in January, according to the median forecast of economists in the MarketWatch survey. That's right in line with the recent trends.
If the median forecast is right, the year-over-year gain in the headline CPI would fall back to 2% from 2.6% in December, while the core CPI would be up 2.6% in the past 12 months, the same pace as in November and December.
So, core inflation is flat, while the headline inflation rate is just following the price of oil and natural gas up and down. That's not good enough for the Fed.
As Bernanke told Congress this past week, "Readings on core inflation -- that is, inflation excluding the prices of food and energy -- have improved modestly in recent months. Nevertheless, the core inflation rate remains somewhat elevated."
The market rally that followed Bernanke's talk was based on hearing the part of his testimony that predicted a "gradual ebbing of core inflation," while ignoring the part that said the Fed "is prepared to take action to address inflation risks if developments warrant."
"Markets have started to downplay inflation risks as a result of the softer core CPI data in the fourth quarter," wrote Drew Matus, an economist for Lehman Bros., in a weekly research note to clients. But he notes that even after three months of cooler numbers, "core inflation is still running just above the Fed's comfort zone."
Unofficially, the Fed seems to have a target zone of 1% to 2% for core inflation, as measured by a slightly different gauge that runs about a quarter or a half percentage point lower than the core CPI.
In the past year, the core personal consumption expenditure price index (to use its full unwieldy name) has risen 2.2%, slightly hotter than the Fed wants.
Energy prices fell about 2% in January, Lehman's Matus predicts. Brian Jones, an economist for Citigroup, expects a 0.7% decline.
Food prices may be a surprise. Although wholesale food prices have jumped in recent months, retail prices have been flat. The severe weather in California that destroyed some crops could push food prices higher in January, Mickey Levy, chief economist for Bank of America, said in a research note.
Shelter costs represent about a third of the CPI. "The core CPI will be mostly about higher prices for rent and medical care and education services," wrote Stu Hoffman, chief economist for PNC. Bernanke told Congress that the FOMC expects inflation from rents to recede in coming months, but other observers aren't sold on that idea. "The shelter components of core CPI should continue to post gains," wrote Dean Maki and Julia Coronado, economists for Barclays Capital.
Medical prices could also be a wild card. Prices rose just 0.1% in December, the lowest increase in a decade. Prescription drug prices have fallen three months in a row for the first time since 1972, largely because of the deals at Wal-Mart and other discounters. But whether that will last is anyone's guess. End of Story
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.
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Chart der Kerninflation: Bleibt die "Wende" Wunschdenken wie beim Housing? Normalerweise geht horrende Überschuldung IMMER mit einem starken Anstieg der Inflation zusammen. Diese volkswirtschaftliche Grundregel wird auch Bernanke nicht außer Kraft setzen können, etwa nach dem Motto "Diesmal ist alles anders".
Anders gesagt: Würde der Chart unten nicht die Kerninflation zeigen, sondern eine Aktie, würden jetzt alle von einer "Kaufgelegenheit nach einem Rücksetzer" faseln.
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Daß selbst wir Deutschen aktuell in einer Aufschwungphase stecken merkt selbst ein Blinder mit Krückstock,weshalb um Gottes Willen sollte man da net mitschwimmen???
Aber shorte du nur alles solange die Kohle reicht...
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Subprime-Hypokredite haben wegen der höheren Risiken Zinsen, die um 2 bis 3 Prozentpunkten über denen für "wohlsituierte Kreditnehmer" liegen. Die hohen Kosten wurden bei Vertragsabschluss von windigen Mortgage-Brokern [die jetzt selber reihenweise pleite gehen -> http://ml-implode.com ] arglistig verschwiegen: Da wurden nur die vergleichsweise niedrigen Option-ARMs-Zinsen (befristet auf 1 bis 3 Jahre) genannt. Die Habenichtse rannten mit ihren Hauskäufen somit in ihr finanzielles Verderben - erkennbar am starken Anstieg der Zwangsversteigerungen.
Subprime ist kein Nischenmarkt: Subprime-Hypothekenkredite machten rund 20 Prozent aller neu aufgenommenen Hypotheken in 2006 aus. Insgesamt fallen zurzeit rund 13,5 % aller ausstehenden US-Hypotheken in den Subprime-Sektor. Dies sind die offiziellen Zahlen der amerikanischen Mortgage Bankers Association, zitiert nach C. Baum (unten).
Greenspan hatte noch vor drei Jahren Option-ARMs als Sparmaßnahme wärmstens empfohlen (unten) - einer der vielen gravierenden Fehler des Altmeisters. Die Housing-Blase geht, ausgelöst durch unverantwortliche Tiefstzinsen von 1 % (2003 - 2004) - ebenfalls auf Greenspans Konto.
Banks That Took Greenspan's Advice Pay the Price: Caroline Baum
By Caroline Baum
Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- It was bound to happen sooner or later, an out-of-the-blue reminder that the froth or the boom or the disconnect between prices and fundamentals in the housing market would have a financial after-shock.
HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe's biggest bank, dropped a small bomb last week when it announced that it was setting aside more money as a cushion against the accelerating pace of loan delinquencies. Yes, Virginia, subprime mortgages -- home loans to folks with a spotty credit history -- do carry some risk after all.
In addition to making those loans, HSBC bought packages of subprime and second-lien loans from other mortgage originators. It seems the best models HSBC's quants could design didn't adequately reflect the inherent risk in lending to deadbeats when house prices stop soaring.
[Wenn HSBC im Subprime-Immobiliensektor hohe Risiken eingeht, sollte die Bank nach den Grundsätzen der Risikostreuung nicht auch noch Hypotheken-Anleihen anderer Banken aus dem gleichen Sektor als Geldanlage kaufen. Das erinnert mich an die traurigen Gestalten, die bei einer Firma wie Enron arbeiteten und ihre "Live savings" in Enron-Aktien angelegt hatten. Als Enron pleite ging, standen sie vor dem Nichts - A.L.]
Before folks could say, ``sell,'' New Century Financial Corp., the No. 2 subprime lender in the U.S., delivered its bad news, saying it would have to restate 2006 earnings because of an increase in loan-loss provisions. The stock lost 40 percent of its value.
Isolated examples? Probably not. Confined to the subprime market? Doubtful.
``There is no way the conditions that existed in the subprime market between borrowers and lenders weren't a multiple of what went wrong,'' said Michael Aronstein, chief investment strategist at Oscar Gruss & Co. ``The incentives are perverse. You're paid for volume, not for being a schoolmarm.''
Sub-Zero
Subprime loans carry rates 2 or 3 percentage points higher than those extended to prime borrowers. They accounted for about 20 percent of new mortgages last year and 13.5 percent of the total home loans outstanding, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
The issue isn't whether loans defined as risky carry risk; they do. The real question is whether the risk was priced correctly; whether rising delinquency rates on subprime loans, sometimes made without proper documentation, will spill over into the rest of the home-loan market; whether borrowers will default when teaser rates on adjustable-rate mortgages reset higher at a time when home prices are falling; and -- the big kahuna, the one that matters to the Federal Reserve -- whether any of the bad-loan problems will affect financial institutions' ability to lend.
In its January survey on bank lending practices, the Fed said that a net 15 percent of domestic banks reported tightening credit standards on residential mortgage loans over the past three months, the biggest net increase since the early 1990s. That was the last time banks were saddled with -- guess what? -- bad real-estate loans. More banks and thrifts failed in the early '90s than at any time since the Great Depression.
Ripple Effects
The Fed's survey also found that a net 37 percent of the banks reported weaker mortgage demand to purchase a home. (It's not clear based on the limitations of the survey whether weaker demand was a result of tighter standards.)
The ripple effects of the housing slowdown aren't confined to the financial sector, according to Asha Bangalore, an economist at the Northern Trust Corp. in Chicago.
``Production in housing-related industries has dropped sharply in the past year,'' she says. ``For example, production in furniture, household appliances and carpeting has fallen for five straight quarters.''
A reasonable person might conclude that layoffs in these industries will compound the declines in residential construction, Bangalore says.
Job Losses
``Housing and housing-related employment made up a little over 40 percent of all payroll employment from November 2001 to April 2005,'' she says. ``Employment in residential construction declined in nine out of the 10 months ended January 2007,'' with 104,000 jobs in residential specialty trade contracting lost since the February 2006 peak, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The residential job losses were more than offset by gains in non-residential contracting, the BLS [US-Arbeitsamt] said.
Falling employment in one sector of the economy or one region of the country is not an expansion killer in and of itself. The Southwest oil patch was depressed when oil prices slumped to $10 a barrel in 1986 even as the economy logged four more years of strong growth. The Northeast real-estate market was slower to recover from the 1990-1991 recession than other sectors.
The danger comes when the financial system is impaired, as it was in the early 1990s in the U.S. and during the 1990s and part of the current decade in Japan.
Sage Advice?
That's when the Fed would start to get concerned about the ramifications, which so far have been limited to a decline in the prices of subprime mortgage bonds [siehe oben: ABX-Chart] and the stocks of mortgage lenders.
It's too soon to know the extent of the problem from all the option ARMs (the interest is optional, but the principal is not!). Only three years ago, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said homeowners could have saved a heck of a lot of money had they opted for adjustable-rate mortgages during the past decade.
[Wieder mal ein Paradebeispiel für Greenspans meist falsche Vorhersagen! - A.L.]
Ex post, that was good advice. Ex ante, it's not looking good.
``American consumers might benefit if lenders provided greater mortgage product alternatives to the traditional fixed- rate mortgage,'' Greenspan said in a speech to the Credit Union National Association in Washington.
Lenders took his advice. Borrowers jumped at the opportunity. Everyone may suffer the consequences.
(Caroline Baum, author of ``Just What I Said,'' is a columnist for Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are her own.)
To contact the writer of this column: Caroline Baum in New York at cabaum@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: February 12, 2007 00:05 EST
Hier die Autorin (Bild). Sieht nicht gerade aus wie ein grimmiger Perma-Bär, oder?
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