EUR/CNY...$

USD/CNY Dn Midday; May Target 7.3950 in Afternoon

USD/CNY down midday at 7.4000 in OTC trade vs 7.4025 late yesterday afternoon. Shanghai-based dealer with foreign bank tips pair may fall as low as 7.3950 after artificially being dragged higher by central parity; "The fixing has been too high for the last few days. The PBOC is trying to force an adjustment." Tips CNY to resume appreciating to new heights Thursday in advance of U.S.-China Strategic Economic Dialogue starting Dec. 12.  

HK Dlr Ends Lower For 5th Session On Arbitrage Positioning

Latest Change USD/HKD Spot 7.7914 +0.0027 1-year USD/HKD Forward* -515 +30 Overnight Hibor 3.13% -67 bps 1-month Hibor 3.82% -9 bps 3-month Hibor 3.94% +10 bps 1-year Hibor 3.86% +11 bps 2-year EF Note 1.80% -9 bps 10-year EF Note 3.13% -5 bps
*mid-point of bid-offer spread HONG KONG (Dow Jones)--Expectations of a decline in local interest rates on refunds from unsuccessful subscriptions to China Railway's initial public offering pushed down the Hong Kong dollar against the U.S. dollar for the fifth consecutive session Tuesday. Traders said they expect the Hong Kong dollar to continue to retreat on more aggressive repositioning of carry trades, which exploit the differentials between Hong Kong dollar and U.S. dollar interest rates.

In late Asian trade, the U.S. dollar was at HK$7.7914, up from HK$7.7887 late Monday. The U.S. unit was fixed at HK$7.7890 earlier Tuesday.

'The recent correction in the stock market appears to have come to an end, so the pair will largely follow local interest rates in the week ahead,' a senior trader with a local bank said. Strong demand for China Railway Group's US$2.46 billion IPO, with the institutional tranche 40 times covered and the retail portion 195 times covered, had soaked up liquidity of US$48 billion in the banking system and drove up local interest rates. The funds tied up by the IPO will be released Friday, when the company is scheduled to make its debut on the local stock market. The gap between Hong Kong and U.S. rates was at a relatively wide margin of 120 basis points in favor of the U.S. unit, down from 129 basis points on Monday. 'Much of our attention is on the reception to the upcoming IPOs, which won't compare with the share offering from China Railway,' a trader with a U.K bank said. Among the other companies in the IPO pipeline is cosmetics and skincare products manufacturer and retailer Bio Beauty Group, which plans to raise up to US$309 million ahead of its Hong Kong listing. The one-year U.S. dollar/Hong Kong dollar forward contract was quoted at a discount of 515 points to the spot rate, compared with a 545 point discount late Monday.  

 

China should allow faster yuan rise after economic meeting - Moody's Economy.

China should follow up a key economic policy meeting this week with a faster appreciation of the yuan, as this would be the best way to address imbalances in the country's economy, Moody's Economy.com said.

""If the country's custodians are truly serious about fixing China's economic imbalances, then a higher yuan is the obvious answer,"" Moody's Economy.com said in a note.

The Central Economic Work meeting, chaired by President Hu Jintao, closed yesterday with a statement that the direction of monetary policy will shift from ""prudent"" to ""tightening"", a sign that the government is prepared to get tough on the country's runaway economic growth.

""China's economic policy decision makers face one of their greatest tests in a decade. They are confronted by a red hot domestic economy with galloping goods and asset price inflation, and surging growth right across the economy, "" Moody's Economy.com said.

""The change in language used to outline the likely direction of monetary policy from 'stable', or alternatively 'prudent', to 'tightening' reflects real worries in China about inflation, exuberant economic growth and investment, as well as stock market and real estate bubbles,"" it said.

The note added that the best approach would be to allow the yuan to appreciate faster. This would help lower imported price inflation and cool much of the export-related investment which has led to more and more factories springing up on the east coast, the note said. But it added that this week's talks appeared to skirt around this key issue.

""A faster appreciation of the yuan would be just the circuit breaker that China's economy needs at present to get it out of what could transform into a dangerous wage-price spiral,"" it said.

Moody's Economy.com added that tightening policies used thus far have proved ineffective because they have been implemented via the banking system, which investors have managed to circumvent.

Booming profits and retained earnings for China's private enterprises, along with high returns in the real estate and stock markets, have provided plenty of surplus cash to invest, the note said.

""The implications are that the current range of banking-focused policy tools that officials have at their disposal are inadequate and the yuan needs to be put on the table,"" it said.  

China Yuan Down Late After Dlr Soars Overnight On Strong Data

Vs Parity Pvs USD/CNY Central Parity 7.4205 7.3982 USD/CNY OTC 0732 GMT 7.4115 -0.12% 7.3880 High 7.4160 -0.06% Low 7.4060 -0.20%

The U.S. dollar's gains on global markets overnight, after relatively strong U.S. economic reports reduced the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates aggressively next week, led to a fall in the yuan against the U.S. currency Thursday. Dealers said the dollar will likely continue to rise above CNY7.4000 Friday if the dollar remains strong against major currencies overnight. On the over-the-counter market, the dollar was at CNY7.4115 around 0732 GMT, up from Wednesday's close of CNY7.3880. It traded between CNY7.4060 and CNY7.4160. By the end of the New York session Wednesday, the dollar had hit a nearly three-week high against the euro and a two-month high against the U.K. pound. The dollar's rally came after a batch of strong U.S. economic data, including a report from the Labor Department that showed U.S. productivity soared and labor costs tumbled. 'Given that the yuan is measured against a weighted basket of currencies of China's trading partners, we don't expect the local currency to extend gains while European and Japanese currencies slide against the U.S. dollar,' said a Shenzhen-based trader at a local bank. Additionally, 'the dollar's strength could be taken as a good excuse (for Chinese regulators) to push the yuan down,' he said. A Shanghai-based trader said banks bargain hunting the dollar heavily in the afternoon, when the U.S. unit dropped below CNY7.4100, helped the U.S. unit rise above the key CNY7.4100 level. Offshore, dollar-yuan nondeliverable forwards rose for the fifth consecutive session amid concerns of a liquidity shortfall due to the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis. One-year dollar-yuan NDFs were at 6.8220/6.8280, up from 6.7730/6.7780 late Wednesday afternoon  

China Yuan Ends Up On Central Parity,Strong CPI Data

Vs Parity Pvs USD/CNY Central Parity 7.3797 7.3953 USD/CNY OTC 0930 GMT 7.3805 0.01% 7.3952 High 7.3890 0.13% Low 7.3770 -0.04%
SHANGHAI (Dow Jones)--A sharply lower U.S. dollar-yuan central parity and heightened expectations of an interest rate hike after November's strong inflation data pushed China's yuan higher against the U.S. dollar late Tuesday afternoon. Traders said the yuan may halt after today's sharp rise and they expect the dollar to hover around CNY7.3800 Wednesday. 'There's some bargain hunting for the dollar after the parity was set sharply lower this morning, showing that the downside for the dollar should be limited in coming days,' said a Beijing-based trader at a domestic bank. On the over-the-counter market, the dollar ended at CNY7.3805, down from Monday's close of CNY7.3952. It traded between CNY7.3890 and CNY7.3770, the lowest level in China's modern era. Beijing unified what had been a dual-rate currency system in 1994, pegging the yuan to the dollar. It revalued the Chinese currency in July 2005 and has since let the yuan rise against the dollar in a tightly managed trading band. China's central parity was set at CNY7.3797, sharply lower than Monday's parity of CNY7.3953 and also below market expectations of around CNY7.3900. 'The parity was set unexpectedly low, but it's easy to understand: given the Sino-U.S. dialogue starting tomorrow, this may be a friendly gesture from the China side,' said a Shanghai-based trader at a foreign bank. The third cabinet-level meeting of the Sino-U.S. Strategic Economic Dialogue will be held on the outskirts of Beijing Wednesday and Thursday. Traders said the U.S. may step up its pressure for a faster yuan rise during the dialogue. They also said expectations for an imminent interest rate hike heightened after the latest economic data showed that inflation pressure remains strong, with November's consumer price index at an 11-year-high. November's CPI rose 6.9% from the same month last year, driven by continued increases in food prices, the government said Tuesday. The increase in the key inflation gauge was higher than the average 6.6% forecast of 11 economists surveyed earlier by Dow Jones Newswires. Traders said the government may have to allow the yuan to rise faster next year to keep the economy from overheating. But they said there is unlikely to be any abrupt rise in the yuan. The Chinese government will remain cautious on the yuan issue, as any big fluctuations in the local currency could hurt economic stability, they said.  

Vs Parity Pvs USD/CNY Central Parity 7.3589 7.3568 USD/CNY OTC 0730 GMT 7.3720 0.18% 7.3692 High 7.3728 0.19% Low 7.3685 0.13%
SHANGHAI (Dow Jones)--A higher dollar-yuan central parity and banks' demand for the dollar to meet the latest reserve requirement ratio hike pushed China's yuan down against the U.S. dollar late Friday afternoon. Traders said the yuan may remain in consolidation mode early next week after its strong recent rises. They expect the dollar to trade between CNY7.3700-CNY7.3780 Monday. On the over-the-counter market, the dollar was at CNY7.3720 around 0730 GMT, up from Thursday's close of CNY7.3692. It traded between CNY7.3685 and CNY7.3728. Traders said some Chinese banks have been buying dollars in the market as they are required to use dollars as part of the reserves they must set aside to meet the government's most recent hike in the reserve requirement ratio. 'But the (dollar) demand is only moderate, since there's still more than one week before the reserve hike takes effect and banks are watching whether the parity will fall again in coming days,' says Shanghai-based trader at foreign bank. The dollar-yuan central parity, which had been set lower for five consecutive sessions, rebounded slightly to 7.3589, from 7.3568 Thursday. The central bank said Saturday it will raise the reserve requirement ratio by 100 basis points, effective Dec. 25, which will bring the ratio to 14.5% for most commercial banks, the highest since the mid-1980s. Expectations of an imminent interest rate hike heightened with the weekend approaching and limited the downside of the yuan, traders said. 'No one wants to hold too many dollars as there's a risk the government will announce a rate hike over the weekend,' said a Beijing-based trader at a domestic bank. An interest rate hike in China will mean higher returns on yuan-denominated deposits and lead to an upward pressure on the yuan, he said. Offshore, one-year dollar-yuan nondeliverable forwards were at 6.7560/6.7600, little changed from 6.7550/6.7600 late Thursday afternoon.  

China yuan ends at 7.3852 to US dollar vs 7.3873 in OTC trade

The yuan finished at 7.3852 to the dollar on the over-the-counter (OTC) market, up from 7.3873 yesterday.

On the exchange-traded market, the yuan ended at 7.3841, also up from 7. 3877 in the previous session, a Guangzhou-based trader with a foreign bank said.

The yuan traded between 7.3865 and 7.3785 on the OTC market and between 7. 3875 and 7.3755 on the exchange-traded market.

The central bank set the yuan central parity rate at 7.3751 for today's trading, compared with 7.3790 yesterday.

China's central bank widened the yuan's daily trading band to 0.5 pct from 0.3 pct, effective May 21.  

China Yuan Up Late On Lower Fixing; Dlr Demand Still Strong

Vs Parity Pvs USD/CNY Central Parity 7.3698 7.3751 USD/CNY OTC 0730 GMT 7.3822 +0.17% 7.3852 High 7.3845 +0.20% Low 7.3781 +0.11%
SHANGHAI (Dow Jones)--A lower dollar-yuan central parity rate again pushed the yuan marginally higher Wednesday, although dollar demand remained strong as banks sought to meet their obligations under the latest increase in reserve requirements. The reserve hike, which takes effect Tuesday, is likely to keep the dollar above CNY7.3700 at least until then, dealers said. On the over-the-counter market, the dollar was at CNY7.3822 around 0730 GMT, down from Tuesday's close of CNY7.3852. It traded between CNY7.3781 and CNY7.3845. ' The dollar-yuan central parity rate was set at 7.3698, down from Tuesday's level. But like Tuesday, the dollar traded above CNY7.3800 for most of the session. 'There are just not so many dollars out there in the market,' said a Shanghai-based dealer with a foreign bank. 'With no one really willing to sell dollars, central parity guidance is a lot less important.' The People's Bank of China has progressively been tightening onshore dollar liquidity during the second half of the year, most recently requiring large local banks to use dollars to meet a 100-basis-point reserve ratio increase, effective Dec. 25. 'But even after the Christmas reserve hike, things may stay fairly quiet until the new year,' said a Shanghai-based dealer at another foreign bank. Offshore, one-year dollar-yuan nondeliverable forwards were at 6.7960/6.8010, down from 6.8120/6.8170 late Tuesday afternoon.  

USD/CNY offshore NDFs rise slightly on higher central parity, which indicates Beijing's efforts to curb CNY's strong upward momentum,

says HK-based dealer.

1-year USD/CNY NDF last at 6.6780/6.6820 in light trade, vs late yesterday's 6.6760/6.6810; expected to consolidate around 6.68 later in session.

PBOC sets central parity at 7.2723, above yesterday's OTC close of 7.2643.  

Yuan's Gain Against Basket Exceeds 2007, Signaling Policy Shift

By Kim Kyoungwha and Kevin Hamlin
Enlarge Image/Details

May 15 (Bloomberg) -- The yuan's appreciation this year against a basket of currencies of its trading partners has exceeded gains in 2007, prompting Merrill Lynch & Co. to say China has made a ``significant change'' to policy.

The Westpac Nominal Effective Exchange Rate, a trade- weighted index for the yuan that includes the euro and the yen, has risen 3.5 percent, exceeding last year's 3.4 percent gain. It strengthened 2 percent this quarter, as the yuan's appreciation against the dollar stalled.

``The yuan is more focused on a basket of currencies instead of just the U.S. dollar,'' said Ting Lu, an economist with Merrill Lynch in Hong Kong. ``We think this is a relatively significant change in mindset of policy makers.''

The yuan's gains may slow against the dollar and accelerate versus the euro as policy makers combat inflation near an 11- year high and calm criticism from officials in Europe, China's biggest trading partner, according to Callum Henderson, head of foreign-exchange strategy with Standard Chartered Plc. The yuan has climbed 2.6 percent versus the euro and 5.4 percent against the yen since the start of April.

The yuan traded at 7.0021 to the dollar as of 10:08 a.m. in Shanghai, compared with 7.0030 yesterday, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. Against the euro, it traded at 10.8230 from 10.7491 at the end of 2007.

Since a peg against the dollar was scrapped in 2005, China's policy has been to manage the exchange rate against a basket of currencies including the euro, yen and the British pound. While the yuan has risen 18.2 percent against the dollar under the new sytem, it has fallen 8 percent against the euro.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson praised China for allowing the yuan to rise faster during the Group of Seven meeting in Washington in April even as he urged the government to do more. China's record trade surplus in 2007 has drawn criticism from the U.S., Europe and Japan.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...20601087&sid=aXb06hL9Mxco&refer=home  

Ein interessanter Fall...
von Michael Vaupel

Traders Daily-Leser Christian P. schrieb mir:

"ABN Amro hat unter der WKN AA0QEF ein Kapitalschutz-Zertifikat herausgegeben, mit dem der Anleger am Verfall des USD gegenüber dem chinesischen Yuan partizipieren kann. Interessanterweise verfällt aktuell der Kurs des Zertifikats sogar schneller als der des Underlyings. Dies sollte doch eigentlich nicht der Fall sein. Haben Sie für dieses Phänomen eine Erklärung?"


Meine Antwort:


Ja, Erklärung für dieses Phänomen gibt es. Ist ein ganz interessanter „Fall".


Hier ist der Punkt „Kapitalschutz" verantwortlich für die scheinbar fragwürdige Kursentwicklung, welche der Leser beobachtet hat.



Denn was bedeutet „Kapitalschutz" in der Praxis?

Konkret bietet der Emittent hier einen Kapitalschutz von 100% des Nennwertes.

Da die Emittenten uns aber natürlich nichts schenken, wird dieser Schein so konstruiert:

Der Emittent kauft einen Zerobond, das ist eine abgezinste Anleihe. Und zwar so, dass der Zerobond bei Laufzeitende ebenfalls fällig ist und 100,00 Euro pro Schein fällig werden.

Für so einen Zerobond muss der Emittent aktuell einen bestimmten Betrag X bezahlen, sagen wir mal einfach 85,00 Euro.

Für den Schein AA0QEF hat der Emittent zu Beginn 100,00 Euro von den Erstkäufern erhalten. Davon zieht er erstmal die 85,00 Euro für den Kauf des Zerobonds ab, und dann wohl einen Teil für den eigenen Gewinn, und der Rest wird dann in ein Hebelprodukt auf den Wechselkurs USD/Yuan investiert.

Aufgrund einer hohen Hebelwirkung kann der Emittent eine Partizipationsrate von sogar mehr als 100% bieten, in diesem Fall liegt die Partizipationsrate bei 120%.

Die 100,00 Euro Auszahlung des Zerobonds sind auf jeden Fall sicher, die kann der Emittent im schlimmsten Fall auszahlen (deshalb Kapitalgarantie in dieser Höhe).

So konstruiert der Emittent einen solchen Schein wie den AA0QEF!

Und jetzt wird klar, warum die Partizipationsrate von 120% nur auf das Laufzeitende bezogen gelten kann, und nicht für jeden Tag der Laufzeit:

Denn der Wert des Scheins wird auch vom Wert des enthaltenen Zerobonds bestimmt.

Und dieser Zerobond, der zu Laufzeitbeginn für einen bestimmten Betrag gekauft wurde, nähert sich bis Laufzeitende dem fixen Auszahlungsbetrag an. Aber zwischendrin kann er durchaus auch einmal fallen - und zwar genau dann, wenn das allgemeine Zinsniveau steigt!

Kennen Sie vielleicht von Anleihen: Wenn Sie eine Anleihe im Depot haben und das allgemeine Zinsniveau steigt, dann sinkt der Kurs dieser Anleihe. (Unabhängig davon, dass die Anleihe am Laufzeitende zum Nominalwert getilgt wird.)

Genauso ist es bei einem Zerobond. Auch wenn feststeht, wie viel der am Laufzeitende auszahlt - während der Laufzeit fällt ein Zerobond genau dann im Kurs, wenn das allgemeine Zinsniveau steigt.

Deshalb diese Kausalkette:

Steigende Zinsen - sinkender Kurs des im Zertifikat AA0QEF enthaltenen Zerobonds - sinkender Kurs des Zertifikats AA0QEF.

Da ein Zerobond nur während der Laufzeit fallen kann (Auszahlung zu Laufzeitende ist fix), wirkt sich dies auch nur während der Laufzeit aus. Entsprechend beziehen sich Partizipationsrate und Kapitalgarantie ausschließlich auf das Laufzeitende.

Das erklärt das unerfreuliche Phänomen, welches der Leser beobachtet hat.

Viele Grüße & wünsche Ihnen ein angenehmes Wochenende,

Michael Vaupel

 

kann ich dieses Thema hier beleben....
Wäre es nicht ein guter Schachzug jetzt Euro gegen Yuan zu tauschen? Ich weiß man hätte dies vor 2-3 Monaten tun sollen, aber besser spät als nie?!  

China bremst seine Wirtschaft, um Inflation zu
vermeiden. Das ist richtig, und vertretbar, aber im Umfang
schwer einzuschätzen. Der Grund liegt darin: China kann
seinen Banken direkt Vorschriften für die Kreditvergabe geben, sowohl quantitativ wie qualitativ. Wie sich
dies im Einzelnen darstellt, lässt sich nicht simulieren. Klare Absicht ist gleichwohl: Vorsichtige Bremsung
ohne das Risiko einzugehen, dass die Konjunktur unter wirklichen Druck gerät. Lediglich die Aufwertung des
Renminbi wird sich wohl beschleunigen.
Das erlaubt eine besondere Überlegung: Sie können auf den Renminbi wetten, in dem Sie Renminbi-
Konten eröffnen und entweder kurzes Geld parken oder längerfristiges Geld fest anlegen. Dieser Weg ist
über Hong Kong auf speziellen Renminbi Konten machbar. Schweizer Banken arrangieren dies. Ein solches
Konto ist völlig legal, was wir betonen, denn das Führen der Renminbi Konten durch Ausländer ist erlaubt.
Wie weit lässt sich eine Hochrechnung darstellen? Die Renminbi Aufwertung kann mit 3 bis 5 % pro Jahr
kalkuliert werden. Eine höhere Aufwertung dürfte Peking kaum zulassen. Da China die Zinsen verteuert
lässt sich ein solches Konto mit einem Zinsertrag von 5 % kalkulieren. Das erlaubt eine Schätzung von 10
bis 11 % Ertrag pro Jahr in der vorsichtigen Kalkulation, jedoch über mehr als 5 bis 6 Jahre, da China
ähnlich wie einst Japan keine schnelle, sondern eine langsame aber kontinuierliche Aufwertung begünstigen
wird.

Quelle: Züricher BB