MOGO Finance Technology

MOGO FINANCE TECHNOLOGY INC. – SPECULATIVE BUY
• We are raising our target to $7/sh from $6/sh, even as Mogo is up ~20% since our Jun 14th note suggesting an attractive entry point.
• We believe Mogo can further benefit from a narrowing valuation discount to peers even while the stock appears to be benefiting from recent positive investor attention.
• Our new $7/sh target represents 3x net 2018 sales, still a discount to peers’ ~4x. Mogo currently trades at ~2x net 2018 sales.
• A sales multiple in-line with peers implies a stock price of ~$8.50-9.50/sh. Approaching Mogo’s $10/sh 2015 IPO price is an important milestone for the stock’s perception.
• H2/17 q/q revenue growth could help attain this important investor milestone by boosting investor confidence in Mogo’s revenue growth capability.
• We model >45% y/y 2018 revenue growth; higher than public FinTech group. However, a few quarters of revenue growth could be needed to unlock a premium valuation.
• We also highlight recent moves by large FinTech providers PayPal and Square, which corroborate Mogo’s business model.
• Recent financing by Canadian FinTech Wealthsimple and acquisitions of Zenbanx (at ~10x sales) and TIO Networks (~4x gross sales) testify Canadian FinTech value creation.
• As consumer banking becomes increasingly digital, Mogo should benefit and perhaps be an attractive partner for Tier 2 banks, credit unions etc.
• In this regard, Mogo could provide potential partners a robust technology platform, national scale and brand (Postmedia relationship).

(Aus dem Stockhouseforum zu Mogo vom 04.07.17)  

Schöner Anstieg des Kurses auf 4,75 CAD gestern in Toronto, was derzeit 3,26 € entspricht.

Hier ein weiterer interessanter Beitrag aus dem Stockhouse-Forum zu Mogo.

Der Autor beschreibt die Entwicklung zu den heute bekannten 10% Shortanteilen (1,86Mio von 18,3 Mio Shares) bei Mogo und verweist auf den recht geringen Freefloat, wenn man die Zusammensetzung der Shareholder betrachtet, der zu einem starken Anstieg bereits in den nächsten Tagen führen könnte, wenn es zum Short-squeeze käme. Interessant auch die Aussage, dass in Deutschland 1 Million Aktien im Umlauf bzw. bei Aktionären platziert sind: 
Unten im Artikel angefügte Links zu einem Bash-Artikel vom 24. Mai diesen Jahres und die Antwort darauf vom nächsten Tag, in dem die Falschaussagen darin widerlegt werden.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MOGO FINANCE TECHNOLOGY INC. – SPECULATIVE BUY

• We are raising our target to $12/sh from $9/sh. Mogo trades at <2x net sales vs.
   FinTech names at ~4x on a 2019 basis. 

• Our new $12/sh price target reflects ~3.5x net 2019 revenue. Recall, we exclude funding debt from net debt and account for loan book interest revenue net of funding interest expenses. 
• Q3 results last night exceeded our expectations on numerous metrics. Management tone re. new fee based offerings and Mogo’s transition to platform play in 2018 was bullish.
• Mogo’s Q3/17 call last night highlighted numerous steps, which support Mogo’s evolution towards becoming a financial platform vs. a consumer lender with a mobile app (existing investor perception).
• Mogo is targeting to ~2x (upper end of guidance) its member base to ~800K – 1 mln by the end of Q4/18 vs. our ~610K estimate.
• Mogo intends to generate ~50% of Q4/18 net revenue from fee based products, which should provide a ~$2.5-3 mln cash benefit. We expected ~40% when we launched coverage.
• Management indicated that the company has nine additional products in its near-term roadmap in addition to Mogo Protect (Q4 launch) and Crypto wallet (Q1 launch). 
• Management is confident one new product idea can be implemented quarterly (new identity protection offers execution proof point). 
• Planned enhancements, e.g. rewards with Mogo’s prepaid card, prepaid card connected to crypto wallet, Bitcoin backed loans etc. could meaningfully enhance fee based revenue. 
• Mogo could provide an smart way for investors to play the blockchain/crypto theme. Crypto product launch and additional TV/radio offline marketing partnerships could significantly accelerate Mogo’s 2018 member growth
• If the company can execute on new fee based product initiatives outlined last night during 2018, we see upside over ~$15/sh (based on a 2019 valuation inline with Fintech peers).

 

 

 

 

 

Unsere Mogo wurde in der aktuellen Ausgabe mit einem Kursziel von acht Euro empfohlen...

Spekulation mit Absicherung... bestehende Geschäft sichert Kurs nach unten ab.  

Werde aber wohl lieber B + S Banksysteme investierten. Die stehen ebenfalls drin. Keine kauf oder Verkaufs Empfehlung  

Habe jetzt doch hier mein Invest getätigt. Ich bin der Meinung das Mogo Finance doch aussichtsreicher ist.  

Mogo hat noch unendlich viel Potential, mögl. dass sie noch korrigiert aber längerfristig kann sie sich immer noch vervielfachen bei dem innovativen Management. Und amerikanische Konkurrenten können in Kanada aufgrund anderer Regulierungen wohl nicht so leicht Marktanteile gewinnen. Mfg.  

als ob hier weiterer Kaufdruck aufgebaut wird. Gut so  

Technology MOGO FINANCE TECHNOLOGY INC. MOGO (CAD$6.79) Target: $12.00 SPECULATIVE BUY Stock Gaining Currency On Cryptocurrency Potential Action: We Recommend Adding To Benefit From Potential 2018 Upside 2018 could offer upside from new products. Mogo stock is up >100% since we launched coverage in April and ~17% since Q3 results on November 8th as the company seems to be making progress towards becoming a platform play with various complementary and synergistic fee based products. We view insider buying of ~$115K last week positively. Our street high $12/sh target could have upside bias from product roadmap execution. Mogo trades at ~2x net sales vs. FinTech names at ~4x on a 2019 basis. Recall, we exclude funding debt from net debt and account for loan book interest revenue net of funding interest expenses. Our $12/sh price target reflects ~3.5x net 2019 revenue. If the company can execute on new fee based products in 2018, we see upside over ~$15/sh. All else equal, if Mogo demonstrates execution on various initiatives outlined on the Q3 call recently, a valuation in line with Fintech names, implies a stock price around $15/sh. Mogos planned 2018 cryptocurrency offering could offer meaningful 2018 upside, which is not yet reflected in our estimates. Details: Market Appears To Be Getting Excited About Mogos Crypto Potential Recent Square (SQ-NYSE, ~US$18 bln market cap) move validates Mogos planned consumer facing crypto rollout to reduce transaction friction. We note Square is up ~20% or an incremental ~US$3 bln since the company roughly two weeks ago gave some users the option to buy or sell Bitcoin. Per the company -- Were always listening to our customers and weve found that they are interested in using the Cash App to buy Bitcoin. We're exploring how Square can make this experience faster and easier, and have rolled out this feature to a small number of Cash App customers. We believe cryptocurrency can greatly impact the ability of individuals to participate in the global financial system and we're excited to learn more here. Initial feedback appears positive, with regards to making cryptocurrency transactions as friction less as possible (http://read.bi/2z8PZqu). Impact: Benefits From 2018 Crypto Roll Out By Virtue Of Being Consumer Facing Member growth could meaningfully accelerate from crypto related initiatives. Recall, Mogo is now targeting ~800K-1 mln members by the end of Q4/18. Based on some industry anecdotes, we would not be surprised if Mogos member growth with the crypto launch in Q1/18 exceeds 10K/day vs. current trend of ~50K/qtr & implied guidance of ~60-100K/qtr through 2018. Mogo should benefit if cryptocurrencies remain in favour. Successful crypto launch could enable additional innovative offerings and revenue streams. As Mogo launches its planned crypto wallet, we speculate that the company could couple its existing prepaid card with members crypto accounts. It should be relatively trivial for Mogo to offer credit to purchase cryptocurrencies given Mogos existing expertise in advancing unsecured consumer loans. We speculate Mogo could partner with crypto miners (vs. purchasing on exchanges). Finally, we expect Mogo to be an attractive partner for various crypto ecosystem players given Mogos consumer brand, existing relationships and low cost of customer acquisition. By Nikhil Thadani 2017/11/21