Hart aber Fair !
aber die indikatoren arbeiten korrekt?!
Ich gehe von einer Erholung in dieser Woche aus.
Der S-Stochastik ist im 6-monats-chart endlich am unteren Wendepunkt
angekommen. Des Weiteren besteht die Chance eines Hammers (candlesticks).
Eine Erholung könnte also schon am Montag starten.
Ich preferiere aber den Dienstag...
Der 3-Jahres-Chart zeigt einen intakten Abwärtstrend in den Indikatoren an.
Vor einer neuen Hausse-Etappe sollte der Stochastik sein Tief bei 0.002 finden.
Es ist schon erstaunlich, wie hoch der Stochastik trotz eines solchen Ausverkaufes
steht. Deshalb sollte auf der Unterseite -mittelfristig- noch einiges fehlen.
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Ich denke man sollte noch auf deutlich höhere Kurse zum shorten warten.
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Ih kaufe aber nur DB Scheine , vielleicht noch Abn Scheine....Alles andere wird nicht angefasst...
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19:30 12.10.08
DJ Ackermann: Optimistisch zu Lösung für Krise noch am Sonntag
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Josef Ackermann ist zuversichtlich, dass eine Lösung für die Finanzkrise noch am Sonntag gefunden wird. Das sagte Ackermann in seiner Rolle als Chairman des IIF (Institute of International Finance) am Sonntag (Ortszeit) in Washington.
Webseite: http://www.iif.com
- Von Madeleine Winkler, Dow Jones Newswires, +49 (0)69 - 29725 115, madeleine.winkler@dowjones.com
DJG/maw/kla
Die Vola wird ab 9 Uhr hochgetaxt wenn zu gunsten der Longs, allein durchs Vola getaxe gewinnst du also dadurch...Short bin ich aber immer noch eingestellt und werde nach 9 Uhr shorts kaufen, da durch die steigenden Märkte die Shorts ein wenig entwertet werden, Achtung: erst nach 9 Uhr kaufen...Sonst kann dich das Geld kosten ! Nicht gerade wenig
1. Warum ich kurzfristig eher bullish bin: der Markt glaubt, daß wir letzte Woche Panik gesehen haben; was wir sehen werden ist eine Gegenbewegung mit Schliessen der Freitagslücke. Es könnte bis 5000 oder 5200 gehen.
2. Warum ich dann eher bearish bin: nach einem etwas euphorischem Rebound kehren dann sehr rasch wieder die fundamentalen Fakten aufs Parkett zurück. Ziel nach unten - keine Ahnung - da liegst Du mit 3000 vielleicht gar nicht so schlecht. Vielleicht wird aber auch "nur" die 4000 nochmal getestet.
3. Warum ich nicht an die Kernfusion glaube: einen Rückschritt ins 18. Jahrhundert wird die Staatengemeinschaft nicht zulassen und um das zu verhindern werden sie Geld drucken, drucken, drucken. Überdies muss noch viel Liquidität vorhanden sein (ich weiß nur nicht wo - grins).
4. Warum ich an ein bullishes 2009 denke: Der US-Dollar hat es vorgegeben: der schwache Dollar hat die Gelder in Öl und Rohstoffe getrieben. Mit der einsetzenden Dollar-Stärke sind die Blasen an den Rohstoff - und Energiemärkten geplatzt. Die Mischung aus Dollar-Erholung unter 1,40 sowie niedrigeren Rohstoffnotierungen und Zinsen könnten die Märkte wieder auf die Beine bringen. Mit dem für Europa stärkeren Dollar werden unsere Exporterlöse und Unternehmensgewinne wieder steigen. Jetzt fehlt nur noch Vertrauen ins Finanzsystem.
Bis morgen. Gruss, Stone
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Bin kein Werner der Her zog um das Fürchten zu lehren und auch kein Libuda...
Hätte da erst mal ganz wichtig dies hinzuzufügen
http://www.ariva.de/BIsher_war_Crash_Beginnt_morgen_DAS_GRAUEN_t349613
und dies
http://www.ariva.de/Wartet_noch_ca_ein_Jahr_Meine_Meinung_t349171
Ich selber beachte sehr die Charttechnik ... doch die kann man zur Zeit glaube ich in die Tonne treten !!
Es geht darum , dass der Finanzmarkt zerkloppt ist und das ist der MARKT womit wir "NUR" zu tun haben !!
Keine Bombe die irgendwo geworfen wurde und auch kein Säbelrasseln von irgend ´nem Diktator ... nein !!
DER MARKT IST IM A.... !!!!!!! Das ist eine ganz andere Dimension und wird sich nicht so schnell erholen !!
Wünsche allen ein geschicktes Händchen die Tage ... MAnni
The problem for the banking sector is that even as the stock markets fall to new lows, the all- important credit markets, where companies both large and small borrow billions of dollars a day to fund their operations, is locked and showing little signs of life because of bad real estate related debt and risky mortgages on the books of major banks and brokerage firms.
Congress recently passed a plan to spend $700 billion to buy these soured assets directly from the bank, and now has unveiled a plan to recapitalize struggling banks to unlock the credit markets and allow borrowing to begin. But the markets have yet to respond favorably to the governments efforts, causing senior executives at the major banks to weigh further consolidation of the banking sector.
Since the credit crunch began in early 2007, Bear Stearns, facing likely bankruptcy, sold itself to JP Morgan [JPM 41.64 4.96 (+13.52%) ] for $10 a share with the federal government agreeing to cover some of JP Morgan's losses on the soured real estate debt it inherited from Bear. Lehman Brothers [LEHMQ 0.098 -0.002 (-2%) ] without government help was forced to file for bankruptcy and its investment banking operations is now owned by Barclays. Goldman Sachs [GS 88.80 -12.55 (-12.38%) ] recently recast itself as a bank, and received a capital infusion from billionaire investor Warren Buffett.
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Another of these struggling banks, Morgan Stanley [MS 9.68 -2.77 (-22.25%) ] also recast itself as a bank, giving it direct access to funding from the government and recently announced a deal in which Mitsubishi UFJ Financial of Japan would invest $9 billion into the firm, holding a 21% stake in one of the most venerable names in American finance that traces its roots to the House of Morgan. But the recent market turmoil has decimated shares of Morgan, and its market value has fallen to around $10 billion. People inside Morgan expect Mitsubishi to recast the deal since US banking laws prohibit a foreign bank from holding a majority stake in a US bank.
Also, people inside Morgan say the government might take a direct stake in the firm to further bolster its balance sheet.
On Saturday, a spokeswoman for Morgan said the firm has had no conversations with the government about an investment and there are no talks with Mitsubishi about changing the terms of the deal. She did not return telephone calls on Sunday to determine if the status of either issue had changed.
Meanwhile, many of the major financial firms from Morgan and Goldman to Citigroup [C 14.11 1.18 (+9.13%) ], Credit Suisse [CS 32.00 -1.85 (-5.47%) ], UBS [UBS 15.30 -0.20 (-1.29%) ] and JP Morgan are closely weighing their futures.
A senior Wall Street executive with knowledge of each of the firms' thinking told CNBC that senior executives at these firms all concede that there could be a wave of mergers in the coming weeks among these firms as a way to bolster their balance sheets if the government's efforts to bolster the banking sector don't begin to unlock the credit markets.
RELATED LINKS
Euro Nations to Guarantee Bank Refinancing
Market Insider: Week Ahead
High Volume = Capitulation?
US Plans Recapitalization Plan For Financial Firms
"This will be a big week," said the executive, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. "From what I hear all these guys are talking because the credit markets aren't getting better."
At one of the most financially stable banks, JP Morgan, officials there are bracing for the government to ask if it will do what it had done with Bear: step in and buy one of the other remaining ailing institutions - possibly Morgan Stanley - in a move that would reunite the old House of Morgan. (The Depression-era banking law Glass-Steagall forced JP Morgan to separate its commercial and investment banking operations. That law has since been revoked.) But officials at JP Morgan are loathe to take over and integrate another financial house.
The bad debt on Bear's balance sheet, these people say, was even worse that the firm thought, causing JP Morgan to write down more losses than originally planned.
In addition, the Bear integration caused massive layoffs because both sides had similar operations.
If JP Morgan took over Morgan Stanley -- one of the world's premier investment banks -- it would still have to slash staff to make the merger work.
"It would be a bloodbath," said one JP Morgan executive.
A JP Morgan spokeswoman had no comment.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson told international leaders on Sunday that isolationism and protectionism could worsen the spreading financial crisis. With a new trading week dawning, U.S. lawmakers urged quick action by the Bush administration on measures to make direct purchases of bank stock to help unlock lending.
Sen. Chuck Schumer, chairman of the Joint Economic Committee, said an administration proposal to inject federal money directly into certain banks, in effect partially nationalizing the banking system, “is gaining steam.”
“I am hopeful that tomorrow, the Treasury will announce that they’re doing it. And they have to do it quickly ... markets are waiting,” Schumer said.
The administration has not indicated when it would announce next steps.
Democrats also are lining up behind House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s plan to bring lawmakers back to Capitol Hill after the Nov. 4 election to work on a second economic relief plan. The idea is “give the middle-class and the average citizen the same kind of relief that we try to give the financial sector,” said Democratic Rep. Barney Frank of Massachusetts, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee.
CRISIS MANAGEMENT
What The Market Needs To Hear
US Government Actions Taken So Far
Top Democrats are suggesting a $150 billion measure that would extend jobless benefits, provide more money for food stamps and finance and some construction projects such as rebuilding bridges and roads. Rep. Roy Blunt of Missouri, the second-ranking House Republican, said he would help on a plan “that makes sense” but is not laden with huge public works projects or bailouts for states that overspent on social programs.
As the International Monetary Fund and World Bank held their annual meetings over the weekend, Paulson warned the bank’s policy-setting committee of the dangers of “inward-looking policies.”
“Although we in the United States are taking many extraordinary measures to ease the crisis, we are not pursuing policies that would limit the flow of goods, services or capital, as such measures would only intensify the risks of a prolonged crisis,” Paulson said.
“Financial market developments are having an acute impact on advanced economies, and we can expect the crisis to have major ramifications for emerging markets and the poorest countries as well,” Paulson said. “Isolationism and protectionism will not offer a way out.”
The economic crisis is limiting the ability of the world’s richest nations to help countries facing twin shocks of rising food and fuel prices, said bank president Robert Zoellick, a former U.S. diplomat, trade negotiator and business executive. “For the poor, the costs of the crisis could be lifelong,” he said.
RELATED LINKS
Euro Nations to Guarantee Bank Refinancing
UK Banks Set to Unveil Plans
French, German Leaders Leaning Toward UK-Style Plan
US Should Follow UK Lead: Ross
Market Insider: Week Ahead
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Jittery investors awaited the reopening of stock markets — the Dow Jones industrial average just completed its worst week ever, plummeting more than 18 percent — and hoped for bold, coordinated international steps to address the crisis.
At a Paris meeting of European leaders Sunday, the 15 countries that use the euro will temporarily guarantee bank refinancing to ease the credit crunch, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said. He said the plan, to be in place through the end of 2009, was “not a gift to banks.”
The United States has not yet gone that far. But President Bush met at the White House with top global financial leaders on Saturday in a display of unity and said afterward that they had agreed to general principles to combat the crisis. Bush, who had spoken about the crisis for 22 of the past 27 days, went biking at a state park in Maryland on Sunday morning and then kept to a private schedule the rest of the day.
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Paulson has indicated the administration will use part of the recent $700 billion bailout Bush signed Oct. 3 to have the government take ownership stakes in banks. The plan has wide support on Capitol Hill, although Democrats pressed for quicker action in spelling out specifics.
Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., sounded a cautionary note. “That has to be very, very carefully done,” he said. “We are a capitalistic system and we don’t want to move away with nationalizing the banking system. So that anything that’s done has to be done on a temporary basis.”
This plan and other Paulson moves were supported by three former treasury secretaries.
“This is bigger than the private sector can fix by itself,” said James A. Baker III, who served under President Reagan. Robert Rubin, treasury secretary under President Clinton and now an adviser to Barack Obama, said it was important “to be highly, highly proactive.”
Lawrence Summers, also a Clinton treasury secretary, said, “Any time you have a problem with trust, you’ve got to deal with it in a very aggressive way.”
The lawmakers and ex-Cabinet officers made the rounds of the Sunday talk shows.
© 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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Gute Nacht und bis Morgen..Wenn irgendwelche Fragen sind bitte per BM oder hier posten...bis denne
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sowie das Verkaufssignal des MACD im 10-Jahres-Chart!
Ich würde implizieren, dass die größte Panik hinter uns liegt.
Die Fernsehsendungen in den letzten Tagen haben alle die
Botschaft nach dem Motto, "Gold ist Ausverkauft!", vermittelt.
Tatsächlich steht der Goldpreis unter dem Hoch vom Anfang
des Jahres.
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1) Financial systems contribute essentially to the well functioning of our economies and are therefore a necessary prerequisite for growth and a high level of employment. Millions of depositors have trusted their wealth to our financial institutions. The consequences of the current financial market crisis jeopardize the crucial economic role of the financial system.
2) Since the beginning of the crisis, we have acted to address the challenges posed to our financial system: we have committed ourselves to take decisive action and use all available tools to support relevant institutions and prevent their failure and effectively acted in several cases; we have increased transparency and disclosure on banks exposure ; we have enhanced retail deposit guarantee protection.
3) Further concerted action is urgently needed given the persistent problems of bank financing and the contagion from the financial crisis to the real economy.
4) We confirm today our commitment to act together in a decisive and comprehensive way in order to restore confidence and proper functioning of the financial system, aiming at restoring appropriate and efficient financing conditions for the economy. In parallel, Member States agree to coordinate measures to address the consequences of the financial crisis on the real economy, in line with 7th of October Ecofin conclusions. In particular, we welcome the EIB's decision to mobilize 30 billions -- to support European SME's and its commitment to step up its ability to intervene in infrastructure projects.
5) As members of the euro area, we share a common responsibility and have to contribute to a common European approach. We invite our European partners to adopt the following principles so that the European Union as a whole can act in a united manner and avoid that national measures adversely affect the functioning of the single market and the other member States.
This requires European Union and euro-area governments, central banks and supervisors to agree to a coordinated approach aiming at :
- ensuring appropriate liquidity conditions for financial institutions;
- facilitating the funding of banks, which is currently constrained;
- providing financial institutions with additional capital resources so as to continue to ensure the proper financing of the economy ;
- allowing for an efficient recapitalization of distressed banks;
- ensuring sufficient flexibility in the implementation of accounting rules given current exceptional market circumstances;
- enhancing cooperation procedures among European countries.
In the current exceptional circumstances, we stress the need for the Commission to continue to act quickly and apply flexibility in state aid decisions, continuing to uphold the principles of the single market and of the state aid regime.
Ensuring appropriate liquidity conditions for financial institutions.
6) We welcome the recent decision by the European Central Bank and other Central Banks in the world to cut their interest rates.
7) We also welcome the decisions by the European Central Bank to improve the conditions for the refinancing of banks and to provide more longer term funding. We look forward to Central Banks considering all ways and means to react flexibly to the current market environment.
We welcome the intention of the ECB and the Euro system to react flexibly to the current market environment, in particular in considering to further improve its collateral framework with regard to the eligibility of commercial paper.
Facilitating the funding of banks, which is currently constrained.
8) With a view to complementing the actions taken by the European Central Bank in the interbank money market, the Governments of the Euro Area are ready to take proper action in a concerted and coordinated manner to improve market functioning over longer term maturities. The objective of such initiatives should be to address funding problems of liquidity constrained solvent banks.
We welcome the initiatives put forward in some member states to facilitate medium term funding of banks notably through purchase of high quality assets or through swaps of government securities. The worsening of financial conditions in the last four weeks requires additional coordinated actions.
To this aim, Governments would make available for an interim period and on appropriate commercial terms, directly or indirectly, a Government guarantee, insurance, or other similar arrangements of new medium term (up to 5 years) bank senior debt issuance. Depending on domestic market conditions in each country, actions could be targeted at some specific and relevant types of debt issuance.
In all cases, these actions will be designed in order to avoid any distortion in the level playing field and possible abuse at the expense of non beneficiaries of these arrangements. As a consequence:
- the price of those instruments will reflect at least their true value with respect to normal market conditions ;
- all the financial institutions incorporated and operating in our countries and subsidiary of foreign institutions with substantial operations will be eligible, provided they meet the regulatory capital requirements and other non discriminatory objective criteria ;
- Governments may impose further conditions for the beneficiaries of these arrangements, including conditions to ensure an adequate support to real economy;
- the scheme will be limited in amount, temporary and will be applied under close scrutiny of financial authorities, until December 31 2009.
While acting quickly as required by circumstances, we will coordinate in providing these guarantees as significant differences in national implementation could have a counter-productive effect, creating distortions in the global banking markets. We will also work in cooperation with the European Central Bank so as to ensure consistency with the management of liquidity by the Eurosystem and compatibility with the operational framework of the Eurosystem.
Providing financial institutions with additional capital resources so as to continue to ensure the proper financing of the economy.
9) So as to allow financial institutions to continue to ensure the proper financing of the euro-zone economy, each Member State will make available to financial institutions Tier 1 capital, e.g. by acquiring preferred shares or other instruments including non dilutive ones. Price conditions shall take into account the market situation of each involved institution. Governments commit themselves to provide capital when needed in appropriate volume while favoring by all available means the raising of private capital. Financial institutions should be obliged to accept additional restrictions, notably to preclude possible abuse of such arrangements at the expense of non beneficiaries.
10) Given the exceptional market circumstances, we urge national supervisors, in accordance with the spirit of Basel 2 rules, to implement prudential rules also with a view to stabilizing the financial system.
Allowing for an efficient recapitalization of distressed banks.
11) Governments remain committed to support the financial system and therefore to avoid the failure of relevant financial institutions, through appropriate means including recapitalization. In doing so, we will be watchful regarding the interest of taxpayers and ensure that existing shareholders and management bear the due consequences of the intervention. Emergency recapitalization of a given institution shall be followed by an appropriate restructuring plan.
Ensuring sufficient flexibility in the implementation of accounting rules given current exceptional market circumstances.
12) We welcome the recent initiatives of the Commission regarding conclusions of the 7th October Ecofin regarding the classification of financial instruments by banks between their trading and banking books, notably to ensure a level playing field with our competitors.
Under the current exceptional circumstances, financial and non-financial institutions should be allowed as necessary to value their assets consistently with risk of default assumptions rather than immediate market value which, in illiquid markets may no longer be appropriate.
We ask the competent authorities to take the next steps within the coming days. Enhancing cooperation among European countries.
13) In such circumstances, efficient crisis management requires constant and immediate monitoring. We will therefore set up and strengthen procedures allowing the exchange of information between our Governments, the President of the European Council, the President of the European Commission, the President of the European Central Bank and the President of the Eurogroup. We look forward the European Council on next Wednesday to setting up a mechanism to improve crisis management between European countries.
14) The Ecofin Council with the support of the Commission and in cooperation with the European Central Bank will report in due time to the European Council on the implementation of these decisions.
France, Germany, the U.K., Australia, the United Arab Emirates and Portugal were among the countries reported readying of fresh efforts to protect depositors and their banks.
The French government plans to propose a law Monday that would offer a state guarantee for banks and create an agency to help channel capital into them, Agence-France Presse quoted a ruling party deputy as saying Sunday.
Gilles Carrez, a senior member of the parliamentary finance committee, told AFP that the law would be unveiled at an emergency Cabinet meeting called by President Nicolas Sarkozy in response to the economic meltdown.
"We need a law to put in place a state guarantee and an organ that will be charged with raising funds to help banks deal with their need to recapitalize," Carrez said.
AFP said Sarkozy's office had confirmed the Cabinet meeting, with Sarkozy due to address the French nation in a televised speech Monday following the meeting.
A second ruling party parliamentary source said that the law would be brought to a parliamentary vote "sometime during the week," AFP reported.
Germany & Britain
The U.K. government is finalizing plans to invest billions of pounds in four of its largest banks as part of its efforts to stabilize the country's financial system, a move that could lead to the suspension of London stock trading Monday, according to media reports.
The government could take a majority stake in Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS:
1.45, -0.04, -2.7%) and HBOS PLC (UK:HBOS: news, chart, profile) , London newspapers reported. See full story.
Similarly, Germany's government will set up a fund to provide as much as 100 billion euros ($135 billion) of equity capital to help the nation's banks through the economic turmoil, Reuters reported Sunday, citing the daily Handelsblatt. See full story.
Australia & New Zealand
Meanwhile, Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said Sunday that his government will guarantee all deposits with institutions for the next three years to bolster confidence in the banking system.
The government will also guarantee all "term wholesale funding" by Australian banks operating in international credit markets to ensure they can compete against global rivals getting similar backing, Bloomberg News quoted Rudd as saying.
In addition, Australia said it was doubling its pledge to purchase residential mortgage-backed securities to A$8 billion.
For its part, New Zealand said it would guarantee all retail bank deposits for the next two years to free up liquidity flows, the Associated Press quoted Finance Minister Michael Cullen as saying Sunday.
UAE, others
Even oil-rich Gulf nations were not immune from the need to protect their banks.
The United Arab Emirates said Sunday it will guarantee all credit risks and deposits at national banks and interbank lending among all banks operating in the UAE, the Financial Times reported.
The Abu Dhabi-based central bank also promised to inject extra liquidity if needed, as local banks are being frozen out of international debt markets and liquidity in local money markets is becoming increasingly scarce, the report said.
But the latest measure, coupled with interest rate cuts announced last week, failed to lift investor sentiment and stock indexes in the UAE, as well as the rest of the region, slumped sharply, the report said.
The Dubai Financial Market Index fell 5.4% to 3,025.08 points, slightly recovering from early losses that sent the index below the 3,000 mark, the Financial Times said, adding that the index has tumbled 26.7% since last week.
The UAE move came as neighboring Saudi Arabia's central bank made 150 billion Saudi riyals ($40 billion) available for its banks Sunday, according to local media reports.
Back in Europe, Portugal's finance minister announced that his government was offering a 20 billion euro state guarantee for banks endangered by the global financial crisis, AFP said.
Also Sunday, Norway said it plans to issue government bonds amounting to 350 billion kroner ($56 billion) in order provide collateral that may be used in banks' funding operations. It said lender Norges Bank will at the same time provide two-year liquidity loans targeted at smaller banks.
Michael Kitchen is a copy editor for MarketWatch and is based in New York
Most of the data should confirm that the economy weakened further in September. The key reports will be the retail sales figures, industrial production and housing starts. And for those who still harbor lingering fears about inflation, the consumer price index should help put some of those concerns to rest.
The Fed's Beige Book will be read closely for any signs that the renewed financial pressures in late September have any major impact on the real economy.
The U.S. has slipped into a rare consumer-led recession this year. It looks increasingly likely that real consumer spending will decline for the first quarter in 17 years during the third quarter, and the fourth quarter isn't likely to be any better. The only thing that kept spending up in the first half of the year was the infusion of about $100 billion into consumer's bank accounts courtesy of Uncle Sam.
Retail sales represent about half of all consumer spending (the remainder is mostly services such as utility bills) and about a third of total final sales in the economy.
For September, economists surveyed by MarketWatch expect retail sales to fall 0.8%, which would be the third straight decline. Excluding the huge drop in auto sales to a 16-year low, sales probably fell 0.2%.
Same-store sales were extremely weak, with retailers reporting very soft demand for discretionary goods. "Consumer credit is hard to co me by these days, so anything that can't be bought with what's in the wallet, simply isn't bought," wrote Ellen Beeson Zentner, senior economist for Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.
"Consumer demand likely softened noticeably further in September, as the chaos in financial markets and deterioration in employment and income prospects have spooked households," wrote Stephen Stanley, chief economist for RBS Greenwich Capital.
Stanley looks for a "whopping" 2.5% annualized decline in real spending in the third quarter. "The outlook for the fourth quarter could be even worse, despite the astonishing declines in energy prices in recent weeks."
Stanley predicts consumer spending will fall again in the first quarter of the year, the first consecutive three-quarter drop in the post-World War II era.
After 9/11, consumers were told to shop, and they did. In the current crisis, consumers are being told to pay off their debts, and they are. Consumers paid off more debt (excluding mortgages) in August than they took on, an extremely rare event.
"While August marks just one month, we cannot help but wonder whether the events of the past six weeks will lead to another drop in September and beyond," wrote Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist for Deutsche Bank.
With global growth slowing, the prospects for U.S. manufacturing have weakened.
Industrial production probably fell 1.5% in September, our survey says. Other than the month right after Hurricane Katrina struck, it would be the largest decline in 26 years. The strike at Boeing and a couple of hurricanes hitting the Gulf States hurt output in September, but economists say the underlying trend is also weakening.
That weakness should be apparent in the forward-looking regional reports from the Fed banks. The Philly Fed index is expected to fall to negative 11 in October from 3.8 in September.
At the bottom of the world's economic problems lies the U.S. housing market. Builders have been great strides in reducing the number of unsold homes, but activity probably hasn't been cut enough, considering the flood of foreclosed homes coming to market.
The home builders' index is likely to fall back to match the all-time low in October, given the severe disruption in the credit markets. Housing starts, meanwhile, are expected to fall further in September from a 17-year low of 895,000 annualized in August. The survey expects starts to tumble to an 870,000 annual pace in September.
The good news will come on inflation. The consumer price index is expected to rise 0.2%. The core CPI is also expected to rise 0.2%.
Inflation has almost fallen off the Fed's radar. "There is a broad consensus among market participants that price pressures will fade abruptly going forward, with some even reviving fears of deflation," Greenwich Capital's Stanley wrote. However, he's "certainly not concerned" about deflation in prices for goods and services. "Asset prices are clearly a different matter."
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatc