AIG und die Zukunft

ich habe den Finger auf dem Verkaufen Knopf .........




.......... wenn wir die 100$ erreicht haben, verkaufe ich sofort. ;-)  

Ich leg mich beim Verkaufen auf keinen Kurs fest.

Ich verkauf wenn das DAX auf guten 7000 und der Dow auf guten 13000 steht.

Die ganz harten warten sogar auf Kurse über 8000 und 14000. Wurd ja wieder schön Geld gedruckt in der Krise...

 

das ist richtig, Geld ist ohne Ende da, nur viele Anleger haben (noch) Angst.

Den Gesamtmarkt muss man natürlich immer beobachten, auch das ist richtig, aber bei 100$ (vielleicht auch wieder bei 50$) setzt eine psychologische Wirkung ein, viele Anleger haben bei solch runden Zahlen ihr Ziel und steigen dann aus. Im Sommer 2009 war es bei den 50$ auch so, kaum hatte man die geknackt, ging es relativ kräftig abwärts.  

Summary Analysis  

AIG is undervalued compared to its Price of $35.14 per share, has somewhat below average safety, and is currently rated a Buy.  
 
Graphs  
 
Amer Int'lGrp  
 
 
Insurance (General)  
 
 


 
Detailed Analysis  

 
Capital Appreciation  
 
Value: Value is a measure of a stock's current worth.  AIG has a current Value of $46.24 per share. Therefore, it is undervalued compared to its Price of $35.14 per share.  Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease. VectorVest advocates the purchase of undervalued stocks. At some point in time, a stock's Price and Value always will converge.  
 
RV (Relative Value): RV is an indicator of long-term price appreciation potential. AIG has an RV of 1.44, which is excellent on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. This indicator is far superior to a simple comparison of Price and Value because it is computed from an analysis of projected price appreciation three years out, AAA Corporate Bond Rates, and risk. RV solves the riddle of whether it is preferable to buy High growth, High P/E stocks, or Low growth, Low P/E stocks. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks with RV ratings above 1.00.  
 
 
 
RS (Relative Safety): RS is an indicator of risk. AIG has an RS rating of 0.88, which is fair on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. RS is computed from an analysis of the consistency and predictability of a company's financial performance, debt to equity ratio, sales volume, business longevity, price volatility and other factors. A stock with an RS rating greater than 1.00 is safer and more predictable than the average stock in the VectorVest database. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks of companies with consistent, predictable financial performance.  
 
RT (Relative Timing): RT is a fast, smart, accurate indicator of a stock's price trend. AIG has a Relative Timing rating of 1.64, which is excellent on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00.  RT is computed from an analysis of the direction, magnitude, and dynamics of a stock's price movements over one day, one week, one quarter and one year time periods. Once a stock's price has established a strong trend, it is expected to continue in that trend for the short-term. If a trend dissipates, RT will gravitate toward 1.00. RT will explode from bottoms, dive from tops, and reflect changes in price momentum. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks with RT ratings above 1.00.  
 
VST (VST-Vector):  VST is the master indicator for ranking every stock in the VectorVest database. AIG has a VST rating of 1.37, which is very good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. VST is computed from the square root of a weighted sum of the squares of RV, RS, and RT. Stocks with the highest VST ratings have the best combinations of Value, Safety and Timing. These are the stocks to own for above average, long-term capital appreciation. VectorVest advocates the purchase of safe, undervalued stocks rising in price.  
 
Recommendation (REC): VectorVest gives a Buy, Sell, Hold recommendation on every stock, every day. AIG has a Buy recommendation. REC reflects the cumulative effect of all the VectorVest parameters working together. These parameters are designed to help investors buy safe, undervalued stocks rising in price. They also help investors avoid or sell risky, overvalued stocks falling in price. VectorVest recommends that investors buy high VST-Vector, Buy-rated stocks in rising markets.  
 
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


 
Stop (Stop-Price): Stop is an indicator of when to sell a long position or cover a short position.  AIG has a Stop of $29.72 per share. This is $5.42 below AIG's current closing Price. A stock's Stop is computed from a 13 week moving average of its closing prices, and is fine-tuned according to the stock's fundamentals. High RV, high RS stocks have lower Stops, and low RV, low RS stocks have higher Stops. In the VectorVest system, a stock gets a 'B' or 'H' recommendation if its Price is above its Stop and an 'S' recommendation if its Price is below its Stop.  
 
GRT (Earnings Growth Rate): GRT reflects a company's one to three year forecasted earnings growth rate in percent per year. AIG has a forecasted Earnings Growth Rate of 27.00%, which VectorVest considers to be excellent. GRT is computed from historical, current and forecasted earnings data. It is updated each week for every stock in the VectorVest database. GRT often foretells a stock's future price trend. If a stock's GRT trend is upward, the stock's price will likely rise. If GRT is trending downward, the stock's Price will probably fall. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks whose GRT is rising and is greater than the sum of current inflation and interest rates, as shown weekly in our investment climate report.  
 
EPS (Earnings per Share):  EPS stands for leading 12 months Earnings Per Share.  AIG has a forecasted EPS of $-17.67 per share. VectorVest determines this forecast from a combination of recent earnings performance and traditional fiscal and/or calendar year earnings forecasts.  
 
P/E (Price to Earnings Ratio): P/E is a popular measure of stock valuation which shows the dollars required to buy one dollar of earnings.  AIG has a P/E of -1.99. This ratio may be deemed to be high or low depending upon your frame of reference. The average P/E of all the stocks in the VectorVest database is 82.61. P/E is computed daily using the formula: P/E = Price/EPS.  
 
EY (Earnings Yield): EY reflects earnings per share as a percent of Price. EY is related to P/E via the formula, EY = 100 / (P/E), and may be used in place of P/E as a measure of valuation. EY has the advantages that it is always determinate and can reflect negative earnings. AIG has an EY of -50.28 percent. This is below the current average of 1.21% for all the stocks in the VectorVest database. EY equals 100 x (EPS/Price).  
 
GPE (Growth to P/E Ratio): GPE is another popular measure of stock valuation. It compares earnings growth rate to P/E ratio. AIG has a GPE rating of -13.57.  High growth stocks are believed to be able to justify high P/E ratios. A stock is commonly considered to be undervalued when GPE is greater than 1.00 and overvalued when GPE is below 1.00. Unfortunately, this rule of thumb does not take into account the effect of interest rates on P/E ratios. The operative GPE ratio of 1.00 is valid when and only when interest rates equal 10%. With long-term interest rates currently at 4.25%, the operative GPE ratio is 0.18. Therefore, AIG may be considered to be overvalued.  
 
Dividend Information  
 
DIV (Dividend): VectorVest reports annual, regular, cash dividends as indicated by the most recent payments. Special distributions, one-time payments, stock dividends, etc., are not generally included in DIV. AIG does not pay a dividend.  
 
DY (Dividend Yield): DY reflects dividend per share as a percent of Price. AIG does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Yield rating. . DY equals 100 x (DIV/Price). It is useful to compare DY with EY. If DY is not significantly lower than EY, the dividend payment may be in jeopardy.  
 
DS (Dividend Safety): DS is an indicator of the assurance that regular cash dividends will be declared and paid at current or at higher rates for the foreseeable future. AIG does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Safety rating . Stocks with DS values above 75 typically have RS values well above 1.00 and EY levels that are much higher than DY.

 
DG (Dividend Growth Rate): Dividend Growth is a subtle yet important indicator of a company's financial performance. It also provides some insight into the board's outlook on the company's ability to increase earnings. AIG does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Growth rating .  
 
YSG (YSG-Vector): YSG is an indicator which combines DIV, DY and DG into a single value, and allows direct comparison of all dividend-paying stocks in the database. AIG does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a YSG rating . Stocks with the highest YSG values have the best combinations of Dividend Yield, Safety and Growth. These are the stocks to buy for above average current income and long-term growth.  
 
Price-Volume Data  
 
Price: AIG closed on 3/16/2010 at $35.14 per share  
 
Open: AIG opened trading at a price of $34.79 per share on 3/16/2010.  
 
High: AIG traded at a High price of $35.98 per share on 3/16/2010.  
 
Low: AIG traded at a Low price of $34.75 per share on 3/16/2010  
 
Close: AIG closed trading at price $35.14 per share on 3/16/2010. (Close is also called Price in the VectorVest system)  
 
Range: Range reflects the difference between the High and Low prices for the day. AIG traded with a range of $1.23 per share on 3/16/2010.  
 
$Change: AIG closed up 0.82 from the prior day's closing Price.  
 
%PRC: AIG's Price changed 2.39% from the prior day's closing price.  
 
Volume: AIG traded 13,099,220 shares on 3/16/2010.  
 
AvgVol: AvgVol is the 50 day moving average of daily volume as computed by VectorVest. AIG has an AvgVol of 15,467,533 shares traded per day.  
 
%Vol: %Vol reflects the percent change in today's trading volume as compared to the AvgVol. %Vol equals ((Volume - AvgVol) / AvgVol ) * 100.  AIG had a %Vol of -15.31% on 3/16/2010  
 
CI (Comfort Index): CI is an indicator which reflects a stock's ability to resist severe and/or lengthy price declines. AIG has a CI rating of 1.10, which is good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. CI is quite different from RS in that it is based solely upon a stock's long-term price history. VectorVest advocates the purchase of high CI stocks.  
 
Sales / Market Capitalization Information  
 
Sales: AIG has annual sales of $97,253,000,000  
 
Sales Growth: Sales Growth is the Sales Growth Rate in percent over the last 12 months. AIG has a Sales Growth of 999.00% per year. This is excellent. Sales Growth is updated each week for every stock. It is often useful to compare Sales Growth to Earnings Growth to gain an insight into a company's operations.  
 
Sales Per Share (SPS): AIG has annual sales of $722.86 per share. SPS can be used as a measure of valuation when comparing stocks within an Industry Group.  
 
Price to Sales Ratio (P/S): AIG has a P/S of 0.05. This ratio is also used as a measure of valuation. Here, too, it is useful when comparing stocks within an Industry Group.  
 
Shares: AIG has 134,000,000 shares of stock outstanding.  
 
Market Capitalization: AIG has a Market Capitalization of $4,727,000,000. Market Capitalization is calculated by multiplying price times shares outstanding.  
 
Business: Amer Int'lGrp, (AIG) American International Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides insurance and financial services in the United States and internationally. It operates in four segments: General Insurance, Life Insurance and Retirement Services, Financial Services, and Asset Management. The General Insurance segment underwrites various business insurance products, including large commercial or industrial property insurance, excess liability, inland marine, environmental, workers compensation, and excess and umbrella coverages. This segment also offers various specialized forms of insurance, such as aviation, accident and health, equipment breakdown, directors and officers liability, difference-in-conditions, kidnap-ransom, export credit and political risk, and professional errors and omissions coverages. The Life Insurance and Retirement Services segment provides individual and group life, payout annuities, endowment, and accident and health policies, as well as retirement savings products consisting of fixed and variable annuities. The Financial Services segment offers aircraft and equipment leasing, capital market transactions, consumer finance, and insurance premium financing. The Asset Management segment operations comprise investment-related services and investment products, including institutional and retail asset management, broker-dealer services, and institutional spread-based investment business. The company was founded in 1967 and is based in New York, New York.  
Business Sector: AIG has been assigned to the Insurance Business Sector. VectorVest classifies stocks into over 200 Industry Groups and 40 Business Sectors.  
Industry Group: AIG has been assigned to the Insurance (General) Industry Group. VectorVest classifies stocks into over 200 Industry Groups and 40 Business Sectors.  
 
 
 

 

   
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ob ich dir mit den psychologischen Grenzen zustimmen kann weiß ich nicht ganz.

Dann musste es sowas ja auch bei der Deutschen Bank passieren bei 50 und 100€. Um ehrlich gesagt solche Grenzen sind mir noch nie aufgefallen. 

Ich entscheide nach dem Gesamtmarkt, weil sich fast jede Aktie danach richtet. Außer Telekom und so.

Ich werd auf deine Theorie mal drauf achten.

 

"Dann musste es sowas ja auch bei der Deutschen Bank passieren bei 50 und 100€."

Diese psychologischen Grenzen, so es sie überhaupt gibt, sind besonders bei Zockertiteln stark, bei einer Deutschen Bank eher nicht und bei einer BASF auch nicht. Vor allem gilt dies für Aktien, die man schlecht bewerten kann, wie dies bei AIG, C, Fann&Fred, CoBa .... der Fall ist, weil eben die Zukunft ungewiss ist und der Staat massiv drin steckt.

Bei AIG setzte im Sommer bei 50$ eine Verkaufswellen ein, nachdem diese schöne runde Zahl erreicht wurde. Allerdings kann man auch andersrum argumentieren, dass der Kurs bis auf 50$ getrieben wurde, als der Markt (nur Finanztitel) den Höhepunkt erreicht hatte.  

So Eröffnungsgap von heute ist geschlossen, Rico haben wir abgeholt, jetzt könnte es doch wieder hoch gehen.  

Ich stehe z.Z. neben dem Gleis.
Hatte vorhin zu $35.59 verkauft und warte das der
Zug wieder unter $34 hält.  

100$ hin oder her im Augenblick sehe ich die lage so das der Kurs meiner Meinung mit absprache hoch getrieben wird...dann wieder mit absprache zurück geht dahin wo der Kurs gestartet ist.  

American International Group Inc. said it received about $452 million in gross proceeds from the sale of 8.5 million shares of reinsurer Transatlantic Holdings Inc.

AIG subsidiary American Home Assurance Co. owned the shares.

As previously announced, Transatlantic (NYSE: TRH) purchased 2 million of the shares owned by AHAC in the offering.

Goldman, Sachs & Co., Wells Fargo Securities and BofA Merrill Lynch served as the underwriters of the offering. The underwriters have a 30-day option, exercisable until April 8, 2010, to purchase up to an additional 725,969 shares, the remaining Transatlantic shares held by American Home, AIG said in a statement. Attempts to reach the company for comment were not immediately successful.

Earlier this month, AIG said it planned to sell its remaining 13.8% interest in Transatlantic Holdings, and last week, it announced it had priced the public offering of 9.2 million shares of Transatlantic at $53.35 a share (BestWire, March 10, 2010).

This latest sale follows last year's closing of a $1.14 billion secondary offering of 29.9 million shares of Transatlantic Holdings (BestWire, June 10, 2009). Before that offering, AIG and AHAC held a total of 39 million shares, or about 59%, of Transatlantic.

AIG has been selling assets to repay the federal government, which offered up to $182 billion to bailout AIG in the fall of 2008, when the company nearly fell into bankruptcy because of collateral payments tied to credit default swap contracts (BestWire, June 8, 2009).

Recently, AIG (NYSE: AIG) said it would raise $50.7 billion through the $35.5 billion sale of AIA Group Ltd. to Prudential plc and the $15.5 billion sale of American Life Insurance Co. to MetLife Inc. The AIA sale is the largest asset sale to date in AIG's ongoing restructuring efforts. The total authorized and outstanding federal assistance on AIG's balance sheet was about $95 billion at Dec. 31, 2009 (BestWire, March 8, 2010).

Most AIG insurance companies and Transatlantic Holdings currently have Best's Financial Strength Ratings of A (Excellent).

Shares of AIG were trading at $33.67 a share on the morning of March 16, up 3.36% from the previous close. Shares of Transatlantic Holdings were trading at $52.49, up 0.13% from the previous close.

http://insurancenewsnet.com/article.aspx?id=171986&type=newswires

Muß jetzt weg und kann den Kurs in den nächsten
3 Stunden nicht mehr verfolgen.
Viellecht wird meine neue KaufOrder zu $33.86 ja ausgeführt.  

Habe ich schon meine Unmut über den Kursverlauf kund getan.
Wenn nicht dann mach ich das jetzt.
Von 36 auf 32,22 runter fu...


Rico hat doch recht ,man kann da schon die Uhr danach stellen das der
Kurs nach 1 Stunde Abkackt.

Hoffe aber trotzden auf Grün für Heute.  

eigentlich kann man nix falsch machen, wenn man unter 34$ nachlegt (s.Rico)
Wir gehen bestimmt wieder über 35 hoch. DOW ist positiv gestimmt.

Wer das Geld hat und das kleine Risioko gehen will...ich mach´s ;-)  

$32.22 hatten wir heute aber noch nicht.
Wie schon bereits heute geschrieben wird es bis zum
großen Verfalltag mit den Schwankungen weiterhen.
Danach legen sich m.E. die großen Jungs erneut die Karten,
zumal die Calls mit Strike "$40" und "$45" nicht mehr
greifen werden.  

Cool bleiben....
Bleibe euch noch erhalten...
Schönen Tag u.Schönen Gruß
Dc.

1.135 Stück zu $33.86  

Ich glaube, Du wirst die shares länger halten, als ich.  

bis 33,60$ bzw 24,40€...
muss auch mal weg.  

Das könnte heute noch klappen.
Ich habe meine zumindest wieder zzgl. 50 Stück.
Gehe davon aus, daß es morgen wieder einen Anstieg geben wird.
Habe daher soeben einen neue VerkaufOrder zu $36.10 plaziert.  

Sorry, kann ich mir für Dich gerade mal nicht verkneifen

werde bald mal wieder meine !200! kaufen, dann biste wieder im grünen :-)  

dann mach mal, damit der Kurs wieder über 36$ steigt  ;-)  

wenn wir die zwanzig euro wiedersehen  was ich nicht hoffe  

Hat ja auch geklappt!
Eine Verkauforder setze ich heute nicht.
36 scheinen heute unmöglich (sofern man diesen Ausdruck bei AIG nehmen kann)
Warte wie der Schluß ist und setze morgen ne Order.
Das war´s für mich.
Morgen geht es weiter...
Tschö  

33$ könnten heute in Gefahr geraten.
Aber wenn ich es nüchtern betrachte, wären dass "nur" 3% Verlust (in US)
Allerdings wieder krass, wenn man die +4% Plus zu Beginn vergleicht.
Wieder eine Lücke von 7%

Jetzt bin ich weg...versprochen  

scheint sich ja das Chartbild von gestern zu wiederholen....