GPC-Biotech 585150 auf den Weg zur 200€ marke
Ich persönlich habe gehofft, dass GPC nun ordentlich steigt, damit ich meine Verluste auf long reduziere. Was ich auch nicht verstehe, dass die weiteren Studien nun mit der KE in der Menge von 50 bis 60% nachfinziert werden sollen. MfG jointhegame
gruß Grenke
Also, eines ist klar, die Gewinne der Zukunft verteilen sich auf mehr Aktien, das wird beschränkend.
Die erweiterten Einsatzgebiete wirken Potential erweiternd.
Und alle die von Verwässerung reden sollten bedenken: Verwässert wurde zum cashwert von 12,50 bzw. 12 Euro.
Beim aktuellen Kurs war die KE also eher eindickend als verwässernd! Trotzdem kann es natürlich weiterfallen. Seit wann ist Börse rational?
Grüße
ecki
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http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/...cb&siteid=mktw&dist=mktwqn
This GPC transaction is really a big deal. The market just funded Satraplatin to the tune of something between approximately USD 70-100mm.
Someone did a selling job on the investment community that this drug is the real deal. Now we only get royalties of somewhere between say 5-15% of sales that could be USD 1/2 billion or more before other applications are found, but we have no financial obligations and get milestone payments of I think USD 18mm, before it hits the market and have some of the marketing rights for the US.
I know when we licensed this drug to GPC, we were in pretty dire straits, and probably cut the best deal we could, but if we were doing it today would have a better arrangement. You cannot look back. This is eventually going to be a revenue stream with no costs. This is a great building block in the oncology part of the strategy.
The other two oncology drugs we have, will I guess be licensed out also, but at much better deals to SPPI. Someone mentioned a few weeks ago that they thought Raj said we were at least 6 months away from licensing either of the drugs, or somewhere into at least the latter stages of a full phase II trial, where the results are looking promising. That makes it probably a first half 05 event.
Maybe this financing being completed accounted for some of the rise in SPPI today. It seems that this stock at USD 6 is dirt cheap, although my thinking may be clouded and I did add to my position in the USD 5.80s the other day.
Good luck to all
*************
does anyone on this board know specifics on the royalty arrangements with GPC regarding satraplatin???
I'm aware of milestone payments... but were royalty specifics ever disclosed???
***********
Royalties were not disclosed (only that it's a "double-digit" number). Looking at other similar deals I assume the rate to be around ~20%.
***********
Don't sweat it. Just the mileston payment is worth USD 2 a share. Even if royalties are at 10%, and North American co-marketing right are in place, approval will be a moonshot.
Keeping the faith while I watch Elan unfold a wonderful short trap tonight....
Nemo
**********
You're on the money, according to what I have gleaned from discussion with informed sources. 10% off the top. First year Satraplatin revenues are being internally estimated at USD 400-500 MILLION. Obviously, the stock price will increase exponentially from this deal alone.
**********
mfg ipollit
Posted 06/23/2004
A Discussion of Chemotherapy for Advanced Prostate Cancer
There has been little change over the past few years in the management of patients with hormone-refractory prostate cancer. Despite various clinical studies that tested a range of cytotoxic regimens, men were left with no viable chemotherapeutic option that offered a survival benefit. But now, 2 separate teams have found that combining docetaxel with other chemotherapy agents leads to a modest but significant improvement in overall survival.
In one randomized trial presented at the 40th Annual Meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology, researchers led by Daniel P. Petrylak, MD, of the Columbia-Presbyterian Medical Center in New York, tested the combination of docetaxel and estramustine against mitoxantrone and prednisone;[1] in the second, researchers led by Mario A. Eisenberger, MD, PhD, of the Johns Hopkins Medical Center in Baltimore, Maryland, evaluated docetaxel and prednisone vs mitoxantrone and prednisone.[2] Both phase 3 studies found that a docetaxel-based chemotherapeutic regimen could extend life by roughly 2 months compared with the standard regimen of mitoxantrone and prednisone. The results suggest a new option for a type of cancer that has long been considered intractable.
Based on results from these 2 trials, the US Food and Drug Administration recently approved docetaxel for use in hormone-refractory prostate cancer, in addition to its other indications for breast and lung cancer. Still unknown, however, is which combination of agents works best in this patient population, and whether an even greater benefit can be seen with other docetaxel-based regimens. On behalf of Medscape, Eric Sabo interviewed Dr. Petrylak in an attempt to explore the role that chemotherapy can play in hormone-refractory advanced prostate cancer.
Medscape: The idea that outcomes in patients with hormone-refractory prostate cancer could be improved by chemotherapy had been largely written off by the oncology community. What caused you to rethink this as a treatment option?
Dr. Petrylak: When we tested it in the lab, we had seen some activity with docetaxel in prostate cancer cell lines and thought that the evidence presented a good opportunity to see what it does in patients. A phase 1 study, published in 1999, found a 23% increase in survival in patients treated with the agent.[3] This was a group of patients with fairly advanced disease, and it surprised us to see such a big advantage. A phase 2 trial found similar results,[4] so it made sense at that point to go ahead with a phase 3 study. Our trial was designed to confirm whether this was a real observation or whether lead-time bias, patient selection, or some other factor had something to do with the outcome.
Medscape: Your study used docetaxel in combination with estramustine, while Dr. Eisenberger's used docetaxel in combination with prednisone. Is there any way of knowing which regimen works best?
Dr. Petrylak: Unfortunately, we can't really tell from these trials. A study published in 1993 found that single-agent paclitaxel given once every 3 weeks had virtually no activity,[5] and early studies of weekly paclitaxel plus estramustine improved outcomes but increased toxicity.[6] So we had all of these data floating around on the use of taxanes and estramustine -- all of which influenced how we designed our trial.
Given the data from Dr. Eisenberger's study, on the surface, it may seem like we don't need estramustine. But the problem is that it's very difficult to tell. Our 2 groups started these trials at the same time and the entry criteria and patient characteristics are very similar. However, Dr. Eisenberger's study has a much lower crossover rate. His is at 20%, ours is around 55%. That may be the reason we didn't see as high a survival as we thought we would originally.
Medscape: Are we then really just opening the door for testing docetaxel with other regimens?
Dr. Petrylak: Both trials established docetaxel as the cornerstone of therapy in this setting. There may be better drugs to combine it with, but yes, what we have now is a start.
Medscape: The survival advantage of 2 months is relatively small. Given what men with late-stage disease may have already been through, are they going want further treatment?
Dr. Petrylak: You have to keep in mind that there's a spread -- some men survived for 3 years on this drug. The 2 months is an average number. And again, the crossover is a big issue; there's no way you can design that out of a trial. Nearly 35% of patients received docetaxel without mitoxantrone or prednisone, which clearly has to have an effect, although the question of how to quantitate it remains very difficult. A small survival difference, given those qualifications, is very important.
Medscape: Is this likely to become the new standard of care, or will this become another hard choice that prostate cancer patients have to face? In other words, how would you counsel your hormone-refractory patients about using docetaxel-based chemotherapy?
Dr. Petrylak: Because we've shown a survival benefit, I think this should now be the front-line therapeutic choice for patients with hormone-refractory prostate cancer. Clearly, any time you show a survival benefit, that therapy should be first choice. You have to discuss the side-effect profile with each patient, but in my experience, seeing how patients tend to react to these situations, they'll want the treatment. In fact, we had some problems in the study where the patients' prostate-specific antigen did not decline as rapidly as they would like, and they said, "If I come off study, will you treat me with docetaxel?"
Ultimately, it's only one option, but I think it should be the first option.
Medscape: What's the next step in refining the optimal treatment regimen for patients with hormone-refractory prostate cancer?
Dr. Petrylak: The next step is to evaluate a combination of docetaxel and another agent that will further increase survival without significantly increasing toxicity. It could be any of the new signal transduction agents, or possibly high-dose vitamin D. We actually have a lot of new agents that we can test. But clearly docetaxel will be the cornerstone. Patients can now be entered on a trial using an agent that we know can help them live longer, with the potential of augmenting that even further.
"und vor allem erwarten die im ersten jahr schon 400-500 mio$ einnahme"... was heißt schon "die" - irgendwer erwartet das. Ich habe die Sache ja nicht kommentiert. "Die" erwarten ja ebenfalls 20% Royalties vom Umsatz für SPPI. Ich halte beides für sehr unwahrscheinlich (das erste aber bei weitem mehr, als das zweite, denn nicht mal ein Überblockbuster wie Avastin schafft das auch nur annähernd).
mfg ipollit
suche schon verzweifelt auf den US Seiten Nachrichten von GPCB, doch ohne Erfolg!
many thanks
geldschneider
I know Dendreon had diappointing trials w Provenge in the fall, but they were only looking at hormone refractory stage prostate cancer. The potential for earlier use and benefit is obviously worth exploring. Is there anyone on this thread that can discuss the potential benefit if any of earlier stage Satraplatin therapy?
*****
Studies have show that Satraplatin retains its activity in tumor cells resistant to taxane compounds, including Taxotere, which is used for the 1st line treatment of HRPC(i.e. many of the patients that will be entering the Satraplatin SPARC trial will be those that already failed 1st line chemotherapy + Taxotere). Therefore one of the 3 additional trials GPC Biotech will be initiating in the second half of 2004 is a PI trial in combination with Taxotere for various cancers(including prostrate). As far as I know, no earlier stages(than HRPC) of prostrate cancer are being targetted at this time. BTW, the other 2 Satraplatin trials GPC Biotech will be initiating soon are a PII trial in combination with radiation treatment, and a PII trial in combination with Taxol for lung cancer.
********
Could the trials be expanded to first line adjunctive therapy- say with radioactive seeds now that the FDA has taken a more pro-active interest in prostate oncology? Is there a toxicity factor that precludes early stage use? Are any of the current trials in the Western U.S. and Canada?
*******
I'm glad you asked that follow-up question because - after thinking about it swome more - I know that part of my answer to your earlier question was incorrect.
The initial treatment of prostrate cancer normally includes surgery along with radiation therapy and hormonal therapy. The average duration of response to initial hormonal treatments is 18 months. If the disease progresses from there, it becomes hormone refractory(2nd line therapy is what the ongoing SPARC PIII trial is currently targetting as an initial indication).
But, the fact that GPC Biotech is planning to initiate a PII trial soon in combination with radiation therapy(which as described above is done at an earlier stage) implies that they ARE indeed looking to expand Satraplatin to earlier stages of prostrate cancer.
For the clinical trial locations, they are(di see some Western U.S. locations, but not Canada):
http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct/show/NCT00069745?order=1
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More from the annual report(re: toxicity):
One of the advantages of Satraplatin over current platinum compounds is a favorable safety profile. For example, existing platinum compounds are typically associated with such side effects as kidney toxicity and nervous system toxicity, including hearing damage due to auditory nerve damage. In contrast, in clinical trials conducted to date, satraplatin use has not been associated with any of these side effects.
********
mfg ipollit
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mb?s=SPPI
Ich glaube nicht, dass es sofort ein neues Board zu GPC gibt, direkt nach dem IPO... bei yahoo jedenfalls noch nicht: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=t&s=GPCB
link zum link des Taxotere Text:
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/...8&tid=neot&sid=8729288&mid=40594
(der Text scheint aber nicht öffentlich zu sein...)
mfg ipollit
Auch keine News gibt es auf den US Seiten!
Kein Wunder, dass GPC so nicht gut angekommen ist.
gruß
gs
11,41
Aber 13,50$ ist eben nur 11,10€.
Hat mich eh gewundert, dass GPC nicht gleich morgens stärker fiel.
Der Kurs wird immer weiter eingedickt. Die neuen Aktien sind 12,00€ und 12,50€ in cash wert!
Grüße
ecki
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Ich glaube nicht, dass das fundamentale Gründe hat!!
Nachvollziehbare Spekulationen in Händlerkreisen besagen, dass der Kurs vor der KE hochgepusht wurde.
Der Kurs lag bei 10,80 und dann......?
Ich glaube die Banken haben ihre Provision selbst verdient: Statt 10,80 und vielleicht tiefer tatsächlich 12,50 und 12, das macht einen fetten Reibach bei dem grossen Aktienpaket.
Ich glaube schon, dass da gepusht wurde, und dafür zahlen die Aktionäre jetzt erstmal die Zeche.
Sehr viele GPC-Aktionäre sind long, da alle auf den grossen Kurssprung ab dem 01.Juli gesetzt haben.
Einige wie Byblos wollten sogar noch Aktien auf Kredit kaufen, ich hoffe für Ihn, er hat es nicht gemacht, sonst ist er jetzt pleite. Wenn nicht mehr genug Sicherheiten da sind, verkaufen die Banken seine Aktien, die warten nicht auf den Aufschwung ab 2007!!
Also Leute, niemals Aktien auf Kredit kaufen, das endet im Männerwohnheim, mit 4 Doppelstockbetten pro Zimmer.
Börsenweisheit: Wenn alle optimistisch sind......
Wenn sich alle bis zur Halskrause eingedeckt haben, wer soll da noch kaufen?
Wenn jetzt die Spekulanten und dei Zittrigen rausgehen, wer soll da noch einsteigen.
Und wieviel Munition hat Goldman und Sachs noch, und haben sie überhaupt ein echtes Interesse an der Kursstützung. Ihr Klient GPC hat sein Ziel erreicht und sie haben vielleicht schon vor der KE genug gestützt.
Ich habe schon vor der KE gewarnt, und zwar vor allem mit volkswirtschaftlichen Begründungen. Ich hoffe einige haben sich Gedanken gemacht.
Es ist einfach ein riesiger Brocken Aktien hinzugekommen, für diese Aktien müssen Anleger gefunden werden.
Angebot und Nachfrage regeln den Preis.
Steigt das Angebot sinkt der Preis (1. Semester VWL).
Es ist Zeit für neuen Realismus, zieht Eure rosaroten Brillen aus.
Meine Empfehlung: 663200
MFG
Wann sehen die ihre 14,55 wieder?
Gestern hat jemand zu europäischen 12,13 verkauft! Oha
Grüße
ecki
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hiermit rufe ich öffenltich zu Maßnahmen auf, die diesen unseriösen Preistreiber grenke und noch einige anderen endlich das handwerk gelegt wird.
es ist ja fast kriminell, wie sie versuchen den preis zu treiben und andere personen damit zu beeinflussen.
die redaktion ist sicherlich an einem konstruktivem forum interessiert, also stoppt diesen grenke endlich
wie ist eure meinung (gäste und redaktion)
mit freundlichen grüßen
Grüße
ecki
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Auch wenn man manchmal unterschiedlicher Meinung ist, Respekt vor Grenke!
MFG
Kann denn jetzt schon jeder Stricher fordern jemanden auszuschließen???????????
Wegen Pissfotzen wie Dir darf ich nicht mehr unter meinem Originalnamen posten sondern muß mich wie ein Strassenköter mit neuer ID hier rum schleichen und mich von jedem dahergelaufenen blöd anlabern lassen weil ich noch nicht lang angemeldet bin.........