SAF Holland: Was tun? Abwarten? Insolvenz?
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A new report from Pike Research forecasts that hybrid medium and heavy-duty truck sales will surpass 100,000 vehicles annually by 2017.
"The truck market has experienced seismic changes in the last few years," says senior analyst Dave Hurst. "As fuel prices have increased, truck manufacturers have responded by expanding their offerings of alternative drivetrains to help reduce emissions and fuel usage by trucks."
"Hybrid Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks" examines the opportunities and challenges in the market for hybrid electric, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric medium and heavy-duty trucks. The report provides a comprehensive assessment of the different drivetrains, battery technologies, and key drivers of market growth.
The report explores global government regulations regarding diesel emissions and vehicle purchase incentives and includes detailed forecasts through 2017. Key market players are also profiled. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the firm's website.
The primary challenge facing the hybrid truck market remains the cost of the system. Hybrid electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and battery electric vehicles all continue to have higher upfront costs that are significant enough to result in higher total cost of ownership for the vehicles.
While the typical operating cost of a diesel vehicle is significantly higher than that of other drivetrains, $0.72/mile vs. $0.60/mile for hybrid and $0.22/mile for BEV trucks, Pike Research's analysis indicates that the higher purchase cost and low cost of diesel in some markets means that the trucks are not able to recover the incremental costs for the electric drive system in their lifetime. As a result, government incentives and emissions or fuel economy regulations will continue to play a very important role in promoting hybrids and plug-in trucks.
Pike Research's analysis further indicates that most HEV, PHEV, and BEV trucks will utilize different chemistries of lithium ion batteries. The cleantech market intelligence firm expects that the use of nickel metal hydride batteries will peak in 2016, as vehicle manufacturers move their remaining systems toward Li-ion. The Li-ion market is expected to reach 3.6 million kilowatt hours globally in the medium and heavy-duty truck market by 2017.
9/7/2011 August Truck Order Numbers Improve
Commercial truck orders improved during August, according to preliminary data from two trucking industry analysis firms.
ACT Research said it expects that when final August data is released in mid-September, North American Class 8 orders will come in at 20,800 units, while FTR Associates data showed Class 8 orders at 20,513, an 11% increase over July.
Despite this modest improvement, the numbers were still down at levels not seen since October 2010, FTR cautioned. Nevertheless, it said, the pace of orders earlier this year was so strong that annualized Class 8 orders for the six-month period including August stand at 299,600 units, a significant improvement from a year ago.
"Although August numbers weren't spectacular, the fact that they reversed the downward trend we had seen over the past three months gave us an indication that fleet buyers are still in the market for new vehicles," said Eric Starks, president of FTR. "We were worried that orders might fall given the uncertainty in the economy. The current level of activity makes me breath a bit easier and suggests that fleets were not spooked into delaying orders."
Going forward, orders will primarily be for 2012 build since the manufacturer order boards are basically full for the remainder of this year, said Starks. Builders will not be taking any heroic measures to increase current production rates given the high level of uncertainty in the economy.
Despite current weakness, FTR is cautiously optimistic that these build rates will be supportable into 2012. However, if the economy turns sour in a big way, that certainly could change the dynamic.
On the medium-duty side, ACT projects Class 5-7 orders to reach 12,100 units, somewhat behind last year's level.
"Despite unfolding economic uncertainty, both Classes 5-7 and Class 8 posted solid gains compared to July," said Kenny Vieth, ACT's president and senior analyst. "While the Classes 5-7 volume was down versus last year, that comparison is to one of the strongest months of 2010. When Class 8 is taken into account, total Classes 5-8 commercial vehicle net orders posted a very solid year-over-year performance."
Ich schrieb gestern was von einem Kursziel von 3,25 Euro WENN DER DOW ABSCHMIERT INKL: DEM DAX
Wenn Du lesen könntest wäre dein Leben vielleicht etwas lebenswerter.
Die Aktie wird doch mit einem MINIVOLUMEN nach oben gebracht was vollkommen OK ist aber nicht von Dauer.
Ich habs gestern geschrieben das es beim DAX sowie bei SAF auch zu kleinen Erholungen kommen kann.Das ändert aber nichts an der Tatsache das SAF und der DAX binnen der nächsten Monate weiter fallen werden.
Wartet doch einfach mal ab und fangt nicht gleich bei einer 10% Erholung an zu schreien wenn Ihr seit Wochen mit Eurer Meinung falsch liegt.
http://www.deraktionaer.de/aktien-weltweit/...-potenzial-17100789.htm
dann geht fast alles den berg runter u. nicht nur saf.
good trades
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Wertpapier: SAF Holland SE |
Du hast mich doch schon bei Kursen über 6 Euro als ich geraten habe zu verkaufen beleidigt und mir unterstellt ich hätte keine Ahnung.
Na wer hier Ahnung hat kann man schon an meinen Postings inkl. meinen Empfehlungen bei SAF ablesen.
Du schreißt hier seit 6,50 Euro und höher das man kaufen soll und das die Kurse niedrig sind.
Na ja was sagst Du denen die deinen Rat gefolgt sind und bei 6,50 Euro gekauft haben und nun mehr als 40% in den Miesen sind???
Du bist ein schlechtes Beispiel für einen guten Anleger der den großen Blick fürs GANZE nicht hat sondern nur im klein klein denkt und handelt.
Sicher nicht weil alle keine Ahnung haben die Ihre fetten Blöcke verkaufen nur Du der Heilige bist.
Schau Dir den DAX an versus den DOW.
Schau mal genau hin.Mensch mach endlich die Augen auf Du D....
Hier wird was eingepreist wovon Du halt keine Ahnung hast und genau das deshalb hast Du auch SAF bei Kursen über 6 Euro zum KAUF empfohlen und ich zum Verkauf.
Angehängte Grafik:
wert.png (verkleinert auf 91%)
wert.png (verkleinert auf 91%)
Es wird also erst wieder heute Nachmittag/Abend spannend und im übrigen im Mittagshandel geben die Kurse meistens nach.
Lg Ars
Hört sich super an...hier das Interview:
Navistar International (NAV) Q3 2011 Earnings Call September 7, 2011 10:00 AM ET
Operator
Good morning, and welcome everyone to the Navistar International Corporation Third Quarter Earnings Release. Today's call is being recorded. And for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the program over to the Vice President of Investor Relations and Financial Communications, Heather Kos. Please go ahead, ma'am.
Heather Kos
Thank you for joining us today. Before we begin, I'd like to cover a few items. A copy of this morning's press release and the presentation slides that we'll be using today have been posted on our Investor Relations website for your reference. The financial results presented here are on a GAAP basis and in some cases, on a non-GAAP basis. The non-GAAP financial measures discussed in this call are reconciled to the U.S. GAAP equivalent as part of the appendix in the slide deck. Finally, today's presentation includes some forward-looking statements about our expectations for future performance. Actual results could differ materially from those suggested by our comments made here. For additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in today's presentation, please refer to our most recent reports on Form 10-K and 10-Q and our other SEC filings. We would also refer you to the forward-looking statements and the other cautionary note disclaimers presented in today's material for more information on this subject.
And now I'm going to turn it over to Dan Ustian.
Daniel Ustian
Thanks, Heather. Now the agenda for today, if you would try to follow me through the slides, Slide 4 has -- we'll talk a little bit about the current truck environment, then we'll get specific on our third quarter results, the balance of this year. We'll talk about some items that would affect the future, and then A.J. will talk about return on capital.
So if you look at Slide 5, you can see that the trend in the industry has been, for the last 3 years, very difficult and encouraging going into 2011. The other 2 charts on here from the experts, FTR organization and ACT, show that, that trend for improvement should stay with us for quite some time now. That is the forecast. I think if you talk to others in the industry, they would give you some similar feelings to that. At the bottom of the page, bottom right, retail sales. Our estimate was, at the beginning of the year, industry demand would be 240,000 to 260,000 industry demand. And then today, we're saying the same thing, 240,000 to 260,000. A little change in mix, a little bit more on the medium side, a little bit less on the Class 8 side and much of that is really related to some supply constraints that we'll talk about in a little while.
We put on Slide 6 just some recent articles that were in Transport Topics that show that production rates are still strong. Freight is good. Freight rates are good. Again, all positive things that the industry will continue to grow.
Another factor in it is used truck. That's probably another indicator. There aren't very many used trucks out there, and the price of the ones that are out there have escalated quite substantially over the last year. And you can see, it's close to $35,000 for a 5-year-old sleeper today, about $10,000 to $15,000 higher than it was only a couple of years back. So used truck market is strong as well.
On Slide 8, for those of you that have followed the industry know we've had some supply constraints. And we would say, it's really not a matter of capacity. It's a matter of the rate of change. So if you look at where the industry was through the industry data, at the beginning of this year, we were about 200,000 annualized rate and the last 3 quarters are 264,000, so about a 30% increase in rate. If you look at the beginning to the end, it's more like 40% or 50% rate increase and the supply chain has not been able to adapt that quickly. On our side, it's even more acute. At the bottom of the page, these are other markets that are growth markets that are coming into play in 2011. We'll talk more about it. But Latin America shipments of trucks in 2010 were 3,000. This year, they're going to be 11,000, and it's back-end loaded. And of course, the Mexico industry is stronger, and we are entering South America. Our products are the same, basically the same and the components and the suppliers are basically the same in each one of these markets. So it's stressing our supply base.
If you look at Slide 9, commodity cost for the industry. We began charting these in 2009 and you can see from this that they're significantly higher than they were back then. I think you could also see that they've leveled off. And one particular note is steel, but you can look at all of these and they have flattened out. I also believe that these are priced now in the vehicles appropriately to capture the increase in commodity costs.
So in summary, the industry environment is what we expected, and I think it's what we're going to expect in 2012 as well, should be a little bit stronger. It should be at a rate similar to the rate that's going on right now. We're seeing a little change in mix. There's more fleet buy, less dealer buy, which means this little stress in pricing. And for us, we certainly anticipate it on the heavy side. I think the medium and severe are stressed probably a little bit more than what we had thought at the beginning of the year. I think the difference though is this, on the heavy side, that's going to stay that way. They're going to be concentrated on fleets. On the medium and the severe side, you're going to see this dealer volume pick back up as the economy picks back up so that -- I don't think that's a permanent swing. I think it's a short-term swing. We also believe that there's an opportunity for a highway bill, and I know many don't believe that, that will happen. I personally do. Over time, we'll get a highway bill, then be right in the core of the severe service business, which is a great business for us and for our industry. We've also said that commodity costs are high, but they're stable. And we believe that it's in the pricing of vehicles throughout the industry.
(Donnerstag, 08. September 2011
Warten auf Obama
Wall Street leichter gesehen
Die US-Futures liegen vor der Eröffnung der Wall Street im Minus. Zwar liebäugelt der Markt mit einer Erholung, erstmal wird jedoch die Rede von US-Präsident Obama abgewartet.
Mit etwas leichterem Start an Wall Street rechnen Händler am Donnerstag. Das Warten auf die Rede von US-Präsident Obama am Abend sorge für eine gewisse Kaufzurückhaltung, heißt es. Sollte der Präsident tatsächlich ein 300-Mrd-Dollar-Infrastrukturprogramm ankündigen, dürften davon aber Bau- und Konsumwerte profitieren. Schließlich gebe es derzeit viele Arbeitslose in der Branche, die immer noch stark unter der US-Immobilienkrise leidet. Weniger Arbeitslose hieße aber automatisch auch höhere Konsumausgaben, heißt es.
Etwas belastend wirkt der starke Anstieg des US-Dollar nach der reduzierten BIP-Prognose durch die Europäische Zentralbank. Darauf deuten auch die Futures auf die US-Hauptindizes: Der Kontrakt auf den S&P500 verliert 0,8 Prozent, der Nasdaq-Futures 0,8 Prozent. "Europa steht weiter ungewöhnlich stark im Fokus der US-Märkte", so ein Händler. Die Entscheidungen der EZB und der Bank of England zugunsten unveränderter Zinsen im Euro-Raum seien begrüßt worden.
Prinzipiell sei der Grundton hier weiter positiv. "Die Entscheidung des deutschen Verfassungsgerichts ist auch hier mit Genugtuung zur Kenntnis genommen worden, der Markt ist weiter zur Entspannung bereit", sagt der Händler. Das bis zum Urteil immer noch mögliche Scheitern des EU-Rettungsfonds habe für erhöhte Risikoprämien auf den Aktienmarkt gesorgt. Diese werde nun weiter ausgepreist.
Vor US-Börseneröffnung steht die laufende Pressekonferenz von EZB-Chef Trichet im Blick. Börsianer sehen hier Zeichen, dass die EZB ihren Zinserhöhungszyklus stoppt. Die Futures-Märkte auf Zinsprodukte gehen bereits von keinen Zinserhöhungen in Europa mehr aus. "Dass Trichet die BIP-Prognose für Europa gesenkt hat, wird als Zeichen dafür gesehen", so ein anderer Händler. Der Euro fiel darauf unter 1,40 Dollar.
Im Blick steht zudem eine Rede von Fed-Chef Bernanke in Minnesota um 18.00 Uhr MESZ. Händler versprechen sich hier Indikationen auf das nächste Zwei-Tages-Treffen der US-Notenbank ab dem 20. September.
Wichtige Konjunkturdaten stehen im Tagesverlauf nicht an. Die wöchentlichen Erstanträge auf Arbeitslosenhilfe legten wie erwartet leicht zu um 2.000 auf nunmehr 414.000. Die laufenden Anträge ("Continuing Claims") reduzierten sich indes um 30.000 auf 3,717 Mio. Ein starker Exportanstieg um 3,6 Prozent im Juli wurde im Handel positiv aufgenommen. Lediglich gegenüber China vergrößerte sich das Handelsbilanzdefizit weiter.
Der Dow-Jones-Index für 30 Industriewerte (DJIA) war am Dienstag um 2,5 Prozent bzw 276 Punkte auf 11.415 gestiegen. Der S&P-500 legte um 2,9 Prozent bzw 33 Punkte auf 1.199 zu. Der Nasdaq-Composite kletterte um drei Prozent bzw 75 Punkte auf 2.549.)
(http://www.teleboerse.de/marktberichte/...esehen-article4253346.html)
Lg Ars
Der Schlusskurs im Xetra ist ok,und charttechnisch sieht es nun etwas besser aus. Man sollte aber den Tag nicht vor dem Abend loben. Bin mal gespannt,ob dem Herrn Markt das was Obama und Bernanke sagen gefällt..