Best Buy - Chance oder Finger weg?!?

Buy Best Buy for a Breakout Turnaround Play

http://www.thestreet.com/story/12613053/1/...out-turnaround-play.html

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- When the market is struggling and selling off, one of my favorite strategies is to look for names that are bucking the downtrend and displaying relative strength.

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During the recent market decline -- which for now has subsided -- one stock that continued to pop up on my chart scans was tech products retailer Best Buy (BBY_). Best Buy has been a troubled stock so far in 2014, with shares collapsing from around $40 a share to its recent low of $22.01 a share. That more-than-30% decline is enough to make Best Buy shareholders want to rush for the exits.

Best Buy's problems are widely known on the Street. At the start of 2014, the company reported that U.S. same-store sales dropped 0.9% and overall revenue trended lower by 2.6% during the all-important holiday season. Best Buy blamed its sales problems on supply constraints for popular products, a drop in customer traffic and a weak mobile phone environment. Despite all of those issues, many on the Street believe that Best Buy is an attractive turnaround story as it starts to shift its business model more toward the online customer.

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Make no mistake about it -- Best Buy has been forced into changing its business model in order to survive since Amazon.com and other online retailers are stepping up their Internet selling game. One major thing Best Buy is implementing to make its online experience better is its ship-from-store initiative, which it has now kicked off in over 1,400 stores. The goal of this plan is to accelerate online growth, improve online conversion and juice store comps. No customer wants to order something online and have to wait forever to get it, so let's give Best Buy some credit for taking these steps.

Another major business focus for Best Buy is its Geek Squad service. Anyone who has ever had a technical issue with a computer or other electronic device knows exactly how valuable tech support is. I recently had a TV I bought from Best Buy, along with a sound system, mounted on my wall and calibrated by Geek Squad, and the service was excellent, reasonably priced and timely. Best Buy should be marketing Geek Squad more aggressively and getting more out of this underutilized asset.

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Best Buy is a sitting in the driver's seat to capitalize on a sea change in how consumers use big-box retailers. Consumers aren't likely to buy a big-ticket item such as a TV online until they've seen it in person. That said, they might go to Best Buy to view the TV then shop online to find the cheapest price. This is where Best Buy needs to streamline its online operations and cost structure so it can compete on price and still provide consumers a great customer experience when demoing an electronic product. I think this means fewer, more strategically located stores with a staff that is knowledgable about how the modern customer shops.


 

http://www.google.de/imgres?imgurl=http://...d=0CDIQ9QEwAA&dur=50  

Analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. increased their target price on shares of Best Buy Co (NYSE:BBY) from $34.00 to $35.00 in a research report issued to clients and investors on Friday. The firm currently has a “buy” rating on the stock. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s target price suggests a potential upside of 33.49% from the company’s current price.

http://zolmax.com/investing/...35-00-at-jpmorgan-chase-co-bby/271452/  

Best Buy Shows Signs Of Recovery With Q1 Earnings Beat
by Marie CaburalMay 22, 2014, 12:50 pm
http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/05/best-buy-q1-earnings-beat/


Best Buy’s financial results
Best Buy Co Inc (NYSE:BBY) posted $0.33 adjusted earnings per share compared with its $0.32 adjusted earnings per share in the same period a year earlier. Analysts had forecast that the electronics retailer would only deliver $0.20 adjusted earnings per share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

The company generated $9.03 billion in revenue, down from $9.3 billion revenue last year. It is notable that Best Buy’s rate of revenue decline slowed down from 29% in the fourth quarter of 2012 to 3.3% for the first quarter ended May 3, 2014.

Best Buy Co Inc (NYSE:BBY) said its adjusted operating income rate improved by 30 basis points due to a $161 million cost reduction in SG&A.

In a statement, Best Buy’s CEO Hubert Joly said, “This quarter reflects continued progress in our Renew Blue transformation… “Beyond our financial results, we made progress against our three business imperatives, which are to improve our operational performance; build our foundational capabilities to unlock future growth strategies; and leverage our unique assets to create a differentiated value proposition that is meaningful to our customers and our vendors.”  

http://www.streetinsider.com/Dividend+Hike/...6%25+Yield/9568489.html

Best Buy Co., Inc. (NYSE: BBY) declared a quarterly dividend of $0.19 per share, or $0.76 annualized. This is an 11.8% increase from the prior dividend of $0.17.

The dividend will be payable on October 2, 2014, to stockholders of record on September 11, 2014, with an ex-dividend date of September 9, 2014.

The annual yield on the dividend is 2.6 percent.

Hubert Joly, Best Buy president and CEO, remarked, “Our decision to increase the amount of cash we are returning to shareholders is indicative of our improved cash position and our confidence in the cash-generating power of our multi-channel business model.”  

Sees Progress in Transition to Multi-Channel Retailer

http://www.streetinsider.com/Credit+Ratings/...+Retailer/9633624.html  

Ich habe eine eigenen Analyse zur Best Buy gemacht, hier nur kurz die Eckdaten:

Geschäftsmodell / Burggraben:
Best Buy Co., Inc. verkauft Technologieprodukte

Unternehmenszahlen:
Geschäftserfolg: Wachstum Revenues 51,8 Mrd$ (1J: +9,5%; 5J: + 22,8%), Profit Marge 4,7%, Skalierung in 2022

Risiken:
Langfristiger Geschäftserfolg: Capex zu Abschreibungen auf Bestandserhaltungsniveau; EK 3,0 Mrd, EK-Quote bei knappen 17,3 %; schwacher, aber positiver  Substanzwert 1,4 Mrd $, die schwache SW-Quote relativiert die knappe EK-Quote weiter ; Current Ratio mit enttäuschenden 1,0; insbesondere angesichts der SW-Quote erwarte ich hier deutlich mehr
Beteiligung der Aktionäre: Dividendenvolumen 0,7 Mrd$, Diluted Shares Outstanding leicht rückläufig, Free Cashflow bei 2,5 Mrd$,mit schwankender Perfomance in den vergangenen Jahren, Payout Ratio bei guten 27,4%
Ist das Unternehmen den Preis wert?
Kursentwicklung auf Jahressicht -35,72%;Multiples: KGV 7,6; KCV 7,4, EV/EBITDA 7,8, Dividendenrendite 3,7%, moderat bewertet
Cash Conversion Rate bei mittelmäßigen 1,0
Abschätzung des Inneren Wertes nach DCF zeigt deutliches Kurspotential (siehe Video)

Mein Fazit:
Positiv: starker Kundefokus, Dividende, Skalierung und Innerer Wert mit Potential
Negativ: Deutliche Schwächen in der Bilanz (Eigenkapital und Substanzwert), gleichzeitig schwache Current Ratio – hier würde ich als Risikokompensation mehr erwarten

Für mich eine Halteposition

Die volle Analyse inklusive aller Grafiken, Tendenzen und Erklärung des Ansatzes findet ihr unter