Interessantes aus den USA
SUNNYVALE (dpa-AFX) - Der Internet-Konzern Yahoo! hat im Schlussquartal 2007 erneut einen Gewinneinbruch erlitten. Unter dem Strich verdiente das im Umbau befindliche Unternehmen 206 Millionen Dollar und damit fast ein Viertel weniger als noch vor einem Jahr. Der Umsatz stieg dagegen um knapp acht Prozent auf 1,8 Milliarden Dollar (1,2 Mrd Euro), gab Yahoo! am Dienstagabend nach Börsenschluss in Sunnyvale (Kalifornien) bekannt.
Im laufenden Jahr sei Yahoo! weiter deutlichem Gegenwind ausgesetzt, sagte Konzernchef und Firmenmitgründer Jerry Yang. In einer Telefonkonferenz wollte er noch am Dienstagabend Details der geplanten Reorganisation bekanntgeben. Spekuliert wurde zuletzt über massive Stellenstreichungen. Auch das Europageschäft steht auf dem Prüfstand. Yahoo schnitt mit seinen Zahlen besser ab als von Analysten erwartet. Der warnende Ausblick enttäuschte Experten jedoch. Die Aktie verlor im nachbörslichen Handel mehr als neun Prozent auf 18,90 Dollar. In den vergangenen zwölf Monaten verlor die Yahoo!-Aktie mehr als ein Viertel ihres Werts.
Bei seiner Rückkehr an die Konzernspitze im vergangenen Sommer hatte Yang durchgreifende Veränderungen binnen 100 Tagen angekündigt. Diese stehen laut Kritikern noch aus. Bei der Internet-Suche etwa fällt Yahoo! immer weiter hinter den dominanten Google-Konzern zurück. Konkurrent Google legt seine Zahlen an diesem Donnerstag vor./fd/DP/wiz
Yahoo issues soft 2008 view; Flextronics up
By Carla Mozee, MarketWatch
Last update: 8:05 p.m. EST Jan. 29, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Yahoo Inc. shares slumped 10% at the close of late-trading Tuesday after the online giant's yearly revenue forecast failed to meet Wall Street's outlook.
The pressure on Yahoo's shares hurt the Nasdaq-100 After Hours Indicator, which tracks the late action in the index's leading stocks. It fell 0.3% to end at 1,802.97.
Yahoo stock fell $2.10 at $18.71 following the company's 2008 forecast of net sales of $5.35 billion to $5.95 billion. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial had been looking for net sales of $5.89 billion.
The company, which has been facing tough search and advertising competition from Google Inc., said in a conference call that it will "realign" 1,000 jobs beginning in February.
Its fourth-quarter profit fell to $205.7 million, or 15 cents a share, from $268.7 million or 19 cents a share a year earlier. Total revenue rose 8% to $1.8 billion. Analysts had estimated earnings of 11 cents a share on net sales of $1.4 billion. See full story.
Shares of Google brushed off earlier losses, and ended unchanged at $550.52.
At the same time, Flextronics International Ltd. shares rose 3.7% to $10.69. The electronics-contract manufacturer swung to a fiscal third-quarter loss of $774 million, or 94 cents a share, due to charges related to restructuring and its purchase of Solectron Corp.
Excluding items, Flextronics would have earned 30 cents a share to top the consensus estimate of 26 cents a share on $8.6 billion in sales.
Shares of Align Technology Inc. , however, slid 21% to $11.10 in heavy trade after the medical-devices maker said that it expects first-quarter earnings of a penny to 3 cents a share on revenue of $70.4 million to $73 million. Analysts currently expect earnings of 13 cents a share on revenue of $78 million.
The company swung to a fourth-quarter profit of $5.7 million, or 8 cents a share, on a 31% sales increase to $72.5 million.
By John Letzing, MarketWatch
Last update: 8:39 p.m. EST Jan. 29, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The restrictive antitrust oversight of Microsoft Corp. originally scheduled to expire last year has been extended to 2009, according to court filings.
The oversight, part of a consent decree that has Microsoft regularly checking in with the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia to report on its own competitive behavior, is the result of a 2002 settlement with the Department of Justice.
While originally slated to expire in November, a group of states including California and New York have been pushing the court to extend the decree to 2012, arguing that Microsoft still unfairly dominates the PC software market.
In a filed order, U.S. District Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly partially granted the states' request, citing "the extreme and unforeseen delay in the availability of complete, accurate and useable technical documentation... Microsoft is required to make available."
"As such, the court shall extend until November 12, 2009 those provisions of the final judgments that have not yet been extended," Kollar-Kotelly wrote.
The requirement for Microsoft to document and share blueprints of its technology so competitors can make compatible products had already been extended to 2009. Microsoft has been regularly criticized for its slow pace in making the documentation available.
Microsoft senior vice president and general counsel Brad Smith said in a prepared statement that "We will continue to comply fully with the consent decree. We are gratified that the court recognized our extensive efforts to work cooperatively with the large number of government agencies involved."
The extension of Microsoft's oversight comes two weeks after European regulators announced new antitrust probes of the software giant.
Earlier this month, the European Commission said it will investigate claims from Microsoft's rivals that the company hasn't shared interoperability information for products including its dominant Office software suite, and unfairly bundles its Internet-browsing software with the Windows operating system.
Nach einem morgendlichen Schwächeanfall vorerst gut behauptet. Mal sehen, wie in den weiteren Runden gepunktet wird!
Indexstand: | 13.494,57 |
Kurs Zeit: | 03:30 |
Veränderung: | 15,71 (0,12%) |
Letzt. Schlußk: | 13.478,86 |
Eröffnungskurs: | 13.500,52 |
Volumen: | 0 |
Tagesspanne: | 13.328,21 - 13.514,13 |
52W Spanne: | 12.572,70 - 18.297,00 |
Bernanke taking charge?
Fed policy panel begins second day of talks; decision set for around 2:15 pm
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Last update: 10:37 a.m. EST Jan. 30, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is taking charge of the Federal Open Market Committee, and the decision and statement released later by the rate-policy panel are likely to be his, Fed watchers said Wednesday.
"Bernanke recognizes now he has got to recognize his prerogative as chairman to put his foot down and put Federal Reserve policy on the direction it needs to go," former Fed Governor Lyle Gramley said in a television interview.
Over the past few months, Bernanke has given two speeches to clearly signal the Fed's thinking on interest rates prior to rate cuts.
The Fed has had trouble communicating with the markets. While the Fed has cut rates, its statements have signaled a concern about inflation.
Gramley said these confusing statements are a thing of the past.
"What Bernanke is telling us now is that you are not going to hear this kind of wishy-washy indecisive view put out by the Fed in the future on its official releases. They are going to focus on the weakness of the economy," Gramley said.
James Glassman, economist at J.P. Morgan Chase, dissented from the view that Bernanke was taking charge. He said members of the Fed have always deferred to the chairman in times of crisis.
Fed watchers' predictions of the central bank's choice later today continue to be all over the map.
Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, said the Fed would lower rates by a half percentage point to avoid the risk of a nasty recession.
Gramley said the Fed would cut only a quarter point to avoid overdoing the rate cuts.
Two major economic indicators released earlier Wednesday may weigh on the Fed's decision.
The January ADP survey indicated that private firms added 130,000 jobs, well above economists' forecasts.
But the Commerce Department reported that economic growth slowed to a crawl in the fourth quarter.
The FOMC is expected to announce its decision on interest rates around 2:15 pm Eastern.
By Moming Zhou
Last update: 11:36 a.m. EST Jan. 30, 2008
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SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - U.S. crude inventories rose by 100,000 barrels to 294.6 million barrels in the week ending Jan. 25, the American Petroleum Institute reported on Wednesday, according to Moody's Economy.com. Distillate stocks fell by 3.9 million barrels to 131.3 million barrels in the same period, while gasoline stocks edged 400,000 barrels lower to 219.6 million barrels, the API said.
Fourth-quarter net expected to double, but eyes are on forecast
By Dan Gallagher, MarketWatch
Last update: 1:21 p.m. EST Jan. 30, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Amazon.com is expected to see its net income more than double for the fourth quarter when it reports results Wednesday afternoon, but Wall Street is casting a wary eye on the company's expected forecast for the current year, which could be crimped by a slowdown in consumer spending.
The fourth quarter -- which includes the crucial holiday shopping season -- is typically the largest for the online retail giant. Analysts expect revenue to grow 35% to $5.37 billion for the period, according to current estimates from Thomson Financial.
Operating earnings are expected to grow 46% to $286.9 million, while net income is expected to come in at $203 million, or 48 cents a share.
In the same period the previous year, Amazon reported net income of $98 million, or 23 cents a share.
Most analysts expect the company to meet and likely surpass the consensus estimates for the fourth quarter. A bigger question, however, is the company's outlook for 2008, in which a drop in consumer spending could put a big dent in Amazon's results.
"Given how highly leveraged Amazon's growth is to discretionary consumer spending in the U.S. and Europe, we would be shocked if management provided anything other than very conservative guidance," Tim Boyd of American Technology Research wrote in a note to clients Monday. "To do otherwise would, in our view, be naive at best and irresponsible at worst."
At the moment, Wall Street is predicting a 30% rise in revenue for Amazon in the first quarter, to $3.92 billion. Net income is expected to be about $148 million, or 35 cents a share, compared with earnings of $111 million, or 26 cents a share, for the same period last year.
"Consensus revenue estimates for the March quarter and 2008 appear reasonable to us," Mark Mahaney of Citigroup wrote in a report Monday. "That said, given macroeconomic signs of softening consumer demand, we could see Amazon's '08 guidance being more conservative than is typical for the company."
A conservative outlook may weigh down Amazon's shares the way it has for several other tech companies in the past few weeks. The stock has already shed nearly one-quarter of its value since New Year's, though it is still double its value from this time last year.
Jordan Rohan of RBC Capital Markets said in a report Wednesday that Amazon has typically issued conservative guidance only to raise expectations later.
"We expect Amazon to continue to post share gains in e-commerce in the US and internationally, as it expands its playbook to Europe and Japan," wrote Rohan, who rates Amazon as outperform.
Tim Boyd of AmTech, who has a sell rating on Amazon, notes that other tech companies have seen their shares take a hit in recent weeks after issuing conservative guidance.
"Growth is being repriced: multiple compression will be severe on stocks that provide conservative outlooks," Boyd wrote. "Multiple compression could occur even on stocks that provide strong outlooks [i.e. estimates go up but stock may not]."
2:15 PM ET, Jan 30, 2008 - 31 seconds ago
02.§One dissent to FOMC decision to cut rates
2:15 PM ET, Jan 30, 2008 - 31 seconds ago
03.§FOMC says will act in timely manner to address risks
2:15 PM ET, Jan 30, 2008 - 31 seconds ago
04.§FOMC says financial markets under stress
2:15 PM ET, Jan 30, 2008 - 31 seconds ago
Fed cuts key interest rate by half-point to 3.0%, signals door open for more
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Last update: 2:16 p.m. EST Jan. 30, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by a half-point and signaled that the door remains open for more cuts.
The central bank lowered the federal funds rate by a half of one percentage point to 3.0%. Financial markets were hoping the Fed would cut decide to cut rates by this amount.
The Fed also announced that it was cutting its discount rate, the interest it charges on direct loans it makes to banks by a half-point to 3.5%.
The move signals that the Fed is concerned about the economic outlook.
The Fed has now cut rates five times by a cumulative 2.25 percentage point. Many Wall Street economists now think the Fed will have to lower rates to 2.5% by spring to stave off a possible serious recession.
The next two formal FOMC meetings scheduled for March 18 and April 29-30.
Last fall, the Fed rate cuts were measured and occurred at regular meetings, but last week the Fed changed tactics and engineered an emergency-three-quarter of a point rate cut.
Many analysts said the Fed also reacted to a sharp downturn in global stock markets. There was concern that this would spread to the U.S. and make the outlook worse.
News that some of the sharp fall in European stock markets might have been exacerbated by Societe General unwinding stock positions from a rogue trader was seen as an embarrassment to the Fed and a sign that global central bank cooperation is not what is often advertised.
But Fed watchers said the trouble at the French bank was more of a sideshow.
Dominating the economic landscape is the weak U.S. housing market. Home prices are falling, an exceedingly rare event.
Some analysts see a risk of a vicious circle, where falling home prices leads to a curb in banking lending that would curb consumer spending. Large international banks are reeling from their holdings of complex securities tied to U.S. mortgages.
Economists believe the lower rates engineered by the Fed will help offset the risk of a financial accelerator.
"A 3% federal funds rate may be just what the doctor ordered to start reviving home prices, home sales, and refinancing," said Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Associates.
Congress is also working quickly on a fiscal stimulus package to help prop up consumer spending. Bernanke gave the politicians the green-light to move ahead with a package as long as it was completely quickly and last only a short time.
Some economists believe the downside risks are overblown and the economy will bounce back in the second half of the year. They say the Fed will be quick to reverse course and hike interest rates once it is clear that the economy is out of the woods.
Still other analysts are deeply worried that the Fed rate cuts will stoke inflation fires, resulting in much higher interest rates at some point in 2009.
Forecasts of a recession remain just that, forecasts.
But pessimists received ammunition when the Commerce Department reported earlier Wednesday that the economy slowed to a crawl in the fourth quarter, growing only 0.6%. See full story.
The economic news this week hasn't been all bad. Orders for big ticket durable items jumped 5.2% in December.
And companies in the U.S. private sector added 130,000 jobs in January, according to the ADP employment report. Analysts are raising their forecasts for the January unemployment report to be released Friday.
Federal Reserve Press Release
Release Date: January 30, 2008
For immediate release
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 50 basis points to 3 percent.
Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households. Moreover, recent information indicates a deepening of the housing contraction as well as some softening in labor markets.
The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, but it will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.
Today’s policy action, combined with those taken earlier, should help to promote moderate growth over time and to mitigate the risks to economic activity. However, downside risks to growth remain. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act in a timely manner as needed to address those risks.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Richard W. Fisher, who preferred no change in the target for the federal funds rate at this meeting.
In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 50-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 3-1/2 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, and San Francisco.
2008 Monetary Policy Releases
Gold soars to new record high after Fed cuts rates
By Polya Lesova, MarketWatch
Last update: 3:16 p.m. EST Jan. 30, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures surged to a new record high of $941.70 an ounce on Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve cut the fed funds rate by 50 basis points to 3.0%, meeting market expectations.
Gold for April delivery soared as high as $941.70 an ounce in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, hitting a new record high. The contract was last up $8.80 at $939.60 an ounce.
Before the Fed decision, gold ended down $4.50 at $926.30 an ounce in regular trading.
The Federal Reserve's 50 basis points rate cut "sets the stage for a further rally in gold, but the upside target remains near $940 and probably not much beyond $950 at the moment," said Jon Nadler, senior analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers.
"Conditions are becoming overbought, and South African production problems have been addressed for the time being," Nadler said.
The Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by a half-point and signaled that the door remains open for more cuts, indicating it's concerned about the economic outlook.
The bank also cut its discount rate, the interest it charges on direct loans it makes to banks, by a half-point to 3.5%. The Fed said that downside risks to growth remain and that it would act in a timely manner to address risk.
The latest rate cut comes on the heels of an emergency rate cut of 75 basis points that the central bank delivered on Jan. 22.
"The Fed remains behind the curve, having to cut in a hurried series, instead of a well-orchestrated cycle of adjustments that should have been initiated when the credit problem first emerged," Nadler said. "There is the risk of over-accommodating, and inflation also remains a threat."
The dollar weakened against most of its major counterparts after the Fed rate cut. The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against six other major currencies, declined 0.6% at 75.125.
"Before this easing cycle is over, we expect the Federal Reserve to bring US interest rates down to at least 2.50%," said Kathy Lien, chief strategist at Forex Capital Markets LLC.
"If the economy does not improve, interest rates could realistically return to 1%," Lien said. "As a result, the US dollar will not escape further weakness."
The U.S. economy slowed sharply in the fourth quarter, growing at the weakest pace since the economy was pulling out of recession in 2002, the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday. The 0.6% annualized growth rate in gross domestic product was lower than the 1.1% expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch.
"I think that we will all be snapped back into reality when first-quarter GDP comes in either flat or negative," said Zachary Oxman, a senior trader at Wisdom Financial.
"I'd look for gold to continue to accumulate and run up to the $933.5 resistance level in the April contract," Oxman said. "Watch for funds and speculators to continue to buy into dips and for the market to be strongly supported at around $906."
Employment in the U.S. private sector grew by 130,000 jobs in January, according to the ADP employment report released Wednesday. Adding in some 25,000 government jobs typically added but not covered by the ADP report, it suggests non-farm payrolls grew by about 155,000 in January - more than double the 70,000 economists expected before the report.
Also on Nymex, other metals prices were mixed. March silver finished down 4 cents at $16.760 an ounce in regular trading, but rebounded after the Fed rate cut and was last up 10.50 cents at $16.905.
April platinum ended down $34.50 at $1,687.40 an ounce and March palladium dropped $2.50 at $390.80 an ounce. March copper declined 7.25 cents at $3.2265 a pound.
Schon kommen erste Stimmen auf, die weitere Kürzung im März und danach kolportieren!
Now Playing: Dr. Irwin Kellner: Fed will cut again in March and beyond The Federal Reserve's rate cuts this week and the last are "a step in the right direction," says MarketWatch chief economist Dr. Irwin Kellner. "Clearly the Fed's going to have to go down even further, and they certainly left the door open to such a move," he says. Kellner says the reasons for more cuts are spelled out in the Fed's statement: financial markets under stress, further tightening of credit for businesses and households, a deepening in the housing slump, and weakening job growth.
Amazon, Starbucks, Novellus to post results
By Carla Mozee, MarketWatch
Last update: 3:42 p.m. EST Jan. 30, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Amazon.com, Starbucks Inc., and Novellus Systems Inc. will be in play Wednesday evening after investors grab hold of the companies' latest financial reports.
Amazon.com (AMZN 74.58, +0.63, +0.9%) is expected report that its profit more than doubled in the fourth quarter, to 48 cents a share on a 35% rise in sales to $5.37 billion, according to analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial. But the company's outlook is in question in light of a slowdown in consumer spending. See earnings preview.
Shares of Amazon.com were last up 0.2% at $74.10.
Coffee retailer Starbucks (SBUX: Starbucks Corp 19.52, -0.45, -2.2%) is forecast to post a fiscal first-quarter profit of 27 cents a share on sales of $2.77 billion. Its shares were down 1.8% at $19.62.
Novellus Systems (NVLS: Novellus Systems Inc Last: 23.92-0.31-1.28%)
is forecast to report earnings of 36 cents a share on revenue of $361 million.
By Dan Gallagher
Last update: 4:05 p.m. EST Jan. 30, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Amazon.com saw its earnings more than double in the fourth quarter thanks to strong holiday sales. For the quarter ended Dec. 31, Amazon (AMZN: Amazon.com, Inc 74.13, +0.18, +0.2%) reported earnings of $207 million, or 48 cents a share, compared to earnings of $98 million, or 23 cents a share, for the same period the previous year. Revenue grew 42% to $5.67 billion. Analysts were expecting earnings of 48 cents a share on revenue of $5.37 billion, according to consensus forecasts from Thomson Financial. For the first quarter, the company said it expects revenue to come in between $3.95 billion and $4.15 billion - ahead of the $3.92 billion predicted by analysts.
Bond insurers face much bigger losses, hedge fund manager and critic says
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Last update: 4:08 p.m. EST Jan. 30, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Ambac Financial and MBIA Inc. will lose more money than they're currently predicting from guarantees they sold on complex mortgage-related securities, according to Bill Ackman, a longtime critic of the bond insurance industry who is betting against the two companies.
Ambac and MBIA shares fell almost 20% at one point in afternoon trading on Wednesday. The stock market also gave up earlier gains.
Ambac (ABK: AMBAC Inc 10.35, -2.58, -19.9%) will incur losses of roughly $11.61 billion from exposure to residential mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations, Ackman, head of hedge fund firm Pershing Square Capital Management, said in a letter to regulators on Wednesday.
MBIA (MBI: MBIA Inc 12.87, -3.11, -19.5%) will lose about $11.63 billion from similar exposures, he added. MBIA could lose another $928 million if reinsurance the company bought to cover certain CDO exposures from 2007 doesn't pay out, Ackman said.
"Losses to MBIA and Ambac from these exposures are materially higher than suggested by the rating agencies or the bond insurers themselves," Ackman said in the letter, a copy of which was obtained by MarketWatch.
MBIA slumped 16% to $13.50 during afternoon trading on Wednesday, while Ambac shares fell 16% to $10.91. The stocks fall by almost 20% earlier.
By Carla Mozee, MarketWatch
Last update: 7:12 p.m. EST Jan. 30, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Amazon.com Inc. shares slid 11% late Wednesday after the online retailer's outlook for operating income came in lighter than Wall Street had expected. Shares of Novellus Systems Inc. were also under pressure following the company's soft sales forecast.
The Nasdaq-100 After Hours Indicator, which tracks the late action in the index's leading technology shares, lost 0.9% to end at 1,792.26.
Shares of Amazon (AMZN:) deepened losses during the session, and closed down $8.41 at $65.80.
Investors were worried about the company's view on full-year operating profit, which it expects to come in between $785 million and $985 million. The $885 million mid-point of that range is below the Thomson Financial estimate of $958.4 million.
Meanwhile, Amazon's first-quarter revenue forecast of $3.95 billion to $4.15 billion was ahead of Wall Street's outlook of $3.92 billion. Its fourth-quarter earnings were $207 million, or 48 cents a share, on a 42% rise in sales to $5.67 billion, due to holiday-season strength.
Analysts were expecting earnings of 48 cents a share on revenue of $5.37 billion.
Stock in Starbucks (SBUX:) fell by 1.8% to $18.22, but finished off the lows of the session.
The company plans to close 100 underperforming U.S stores and expects "low double-digit" earnings-per-share growth in 2008. Earlier this month, company founder Howard Schultz returned as CEO, and said he had planned to slow the pace of U.S. store openings and accelerate global expansion, among other moves.
Its fiscal first-quarter net income rose to $208.1 million, or 28 cents a share, from $205 million, or 26 cents a share, a year ago. Sales rose 17% to $2.8 billion.
A below-consensus forecast from Novellus Systems Inc. (NVLS:) pulled the company's shares 3.9% lower to $22.50. The chip-equipment maker expects first-quarter revenue of $315 million to $325 million, while analysts are looking for $356 million.
Novellus' fourth-quarter net income rose to $52.9 million, or 47 cents a share, from $42.6 million, or 34 cents a share. Revenue was $363.5 million, compared with $438.5 million. Adjusted earnings were 37 cents a share. Analysts forecast earnings of 36 cents a share on revenue of $361.4 million.
MARKET SNAPSHOT
U.S. stocks close lower as Fed-fueled rally unravels
Talk of downgrades for bond insurers adds to late-session losses
By Kate Gibson, MarketWatch
Last update: 4:50 p.m. EST Jan. 30, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks crumbled into the close on Wednesday, after earlier rallying in reaction to the Federal Reserve's much-anticipated half-point rate cut, with speculation that bond insurers Ambac Financial and MBIA Inc. faced downgrades helping to fuel the late-session losses.
"I think it's important to recall that when the market gets what it expects it doesn't tend to celebrate, at least not in the long run since the market is a forward pricing mechanism," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co.
Down about 30 points ahead of the Fed decision, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU:) rallied nearly 200 points before retrenching as the closing bell neared to finish 37.5 points lower to 12,442.8.
"U.S. equity markets closed lower after being unable to hang on to its post Fed rally. Fear that U.S. bond insurers Ambac and MBIA will be downgraded by ratings agencies was a catalyst," said Action Economics.
Ambac (ABK:) and MBIA (MBI:) will lose more money than they are currently predicting from guarantees sold on complex mortgage-related securities, according to one longtime critic of the bond insurance industry.
Of the Dow's 30 components, 17 closed with losses.
Another blue chip, Boeing Co. (BA:) rose 2.4% in the wake of its fourth-quarter earnings climb of 4%.
Merck & Co. (MRK:) was down the most, 5%, after the pharmaceutical company reported fourth-quarter losses of $1.63 billion, pegged in part to its Vioxx lawsuit settlement and restructuring charges.
The S&P 500 ($SPX:) dropped 6.49 points, or 0.5%, to 1,355.81, while the technology-laden Nasdaq Composite (COMP:) fell 9.06 points, or 0.4%, to 2,349.00.
The recent spree of Fed action, beginning with the Fed's emergency 75 basis-point cut eight days ago, has helped the equities market recover its footing, with the Dow gaining more than 500 points, or 4.1%, since the three-day weekend that preceded Tuesday's unexpected Fed cut.
"If you look at the magnitude of the easing that has happened in the last eight days -- you'd have to go back to 1990 to see as an aggressive move -- it shows just how concerned the Fed is about the pace of the U.S. economy," said Hogan.
Crude-oil futures climbed for a fifth day, with the contract for March delivery up 69 cents to close at $92.33.
Elsewhere on the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for April delivery fell $4.5 to end at $926.3 an ounce.
Volume hit 1.8 billion shares on the New York Stock Exchange, and declining stocks overtook those advancing 9 to 7. On the Nasdaq, nearly 2.6 billion shares were exchanged, and advancers 3 to 2.
Fed covered?
Early economic indicators mostly bolstered the case for the Fed to cut half a point, with the government reporting U.S. economic growth slowed sharply in the fourth quarter.
'It is a very close call.'— Tony Crescenzi, Miller Tabak & Co.
"For the Fed, the forward-looking aspects of today's report are mixed and do not provide full cover for a 50-basis-point cut, although it is a very close call," said Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak & Co.
Conversely, the ADP employment report found the private sector added 130,000 jobs this month, nearly twice the 70,000 forecast by economists. See full story.
Richard Hoey, analyst at Dreyfus Corp., had forecast a divided Fed would trim the benchmark rate another half point. Listen to Hoey.
Shares of Yahoo were down 8.7% on the heels of its quarterly results and downgrades by several brokerages.
Other fourth-quarter earnings reports included a 6.3% profit decline at Kraft Foods Inc., (KFT:) with the world's second-largest foods producer attributing the drop to higher costs.
Shares of E-Trade Financial Corp. (ETFC:) rallied as several insiders said they had recently bought shares of the financial-services company.
In Europe, two large banks disclosed fresh troubles stemming from the U.S. housing slump: Swiss giant UBS (UBS:) extended its latest write-down to $14 billion and France's BNP Paribas said its quarterly profit will slide more than 40%.
European stocks weakened in the face of the new banking write-downs.
In Asia, several markets surrendered gains to end in the red.
meldet den grössten Q Verlust = $2,3
jetzt beginnt der "run" & die suche nach Geld, denn sosnt verliert er sein AAA rating..und kann einpacken..
viel Glück
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