Aixtron purpose of this thread

wir man feststellen, dass der Kurs zwischen ca. 7 und 10+ EUR regelmäßig schwankt. Auffällig ist es, dass die 200 und 100 Linien relativ konstant bleiben, das die Regelmäßigkeit der beachtlichen Schwankungen untrestreicht.
Wenn man ein erfolgreicher Trader mit Glück ist, hätte man jede Menge Kohle mit Aix über die 2 J machen können.
Das zeigt ausserdem, dass die Aktie ab ca. 7 interessant wird, und ab ca. 10 wiederum nicht mehr. ICh sehe darin nichts aussergewöhnliches. Das ist eine beachtliche Kursspanne von 40-50 %.
Also, "interessant" ist ein relativer Begriff.

Wenn du Aix Performance mit DAX und TexDax über 1J vergleichst, wirst du feststellen, dass Aixtron nicht so schlecht da steht.

Das Ärgerliche kommt eben daher, dass der Durchschnitt bei Aixtron über JAhre konstant bleibt. Also, für longies, die investiert bleiben und EK hoch haben, verständlich ärgerlich. Aber das ist dann jedemann's Bier. ;)

OLED würde ein game changer für Aixtron, keine Frage.
Aber auch ohne OLED hatte Aix seht gute Perspektiven für die nächsten ein paar Jahre.
Je nach Phasen zu einander zw. den Wellen 3D sensing, mLED, miniLED, Power El., LED wird es für Aixtron mal sehr gut  laufen (Überlagerung mehrerer Wellen), mal verhaltener.
 

absolut richtig was du schreibst. zwischen 7 und 10€ kann man gut geld hier verdienen. aber nicht mit einer erwartung eines oled deals. vielleicht mal ende des jahres. gegenwärtig hängen aber die sterne zu hoch.  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/...-earnings-conference-042739591.html  

https://www.ariva.de/forum/...f-this-thread-567236?page=10#jumppos268

GaN-on-Si fast chargers for mobile devices are pushing the earlier-than-expected arrival of GaN that Aixtron indicated in the CC.  One would expect that Apple is not going wait.

As we know, Aixtron has multiple customers using its G5 developing and manufacturing GaN-on-Si, many of them in China and Taiwan.  Foundries like TSMC were mentioned in the CC.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/brunch/...ching-its-limit-whats-next

The GaN adoption roadmap

Fast chargers

Last year was a breakthrough year for GaN (gallium nitride) in consumer electronics, says Ezgi Dogmus, technology and market analyst at market research firm Yole.

"Before 2019, the GaN power market was tiny and devices were mainly deployed in some niche applications. Starting from 2019, we witnessed the ground-breaking entry of GaN devices in high-power in-the-box fast chargers, meaning chargers sold together with the smartphones, in several brands such as Oppo and Realme. We also see major original equipment manufacturers such as Samsung and Xiaomi adopting GaN in accessory fast chargers. This opens the doors for the high volume smartphone market for GaN."

Apple is widely expected to retail chargers powered by GaN this year too, together with its new iPhone.

GaN's smaller form factor, high efficiency and cost-competitiveness for high-power fast-charging beyond 60 Watts are currently the key parameters desired by laptop and smartphone makers, Ms Dogmus adds, so GaN adoption will continue to rise.

Kong Xin, deputy programme director of NTU's Energy Research Institute, adds: "It is amazing to note that these GaN-based ultra slim phone and PC chargers are so small and light that they can easily be placed into your pocket. It will not be a surprise to see the IT market possibly taken over by the GaN technology in the near future."  

I believe that Felix was addressing the GaN for fast chargers. The "Western players" in the last paragraph should be implying Apple:

Veysel Taze, Bankhaus Lampe KG, Research Division - Analyst

Okay. And then one question regarding your power business. So in Q1 you had roughly EUR 11 million sales in power. And I was wondering what was the split, silicon carbide versus GaN. And then on GaN, a little color around current market momentum or demand momentum. So TSMC seems to have secured some designs. They invested a few years ago. Do you see them investing in new capacities? And how is the investment behavior regarding GaN in China?

And then a final question regarding the OLED. Felix, you mentioned during your presentation a few months work still to be done, so an update there. Can we expect a decision still in first half?

--------------------------------------------------

Felix J. Grawert, AIXTRON SE - President & Member of the Executive Board

Yes, thank you; quite a number of questions. Let me get started with the power electronics one. So order intake in the first quarter was about 20% gallium nitride, both power and RF combined, and about 20% silicon carbide, so power electronics amounting a total of 40%.

You are right regarding and commenting to the market momentum. The gallium nitride is now a leader, gaining traction. You may look and analyze, for example, across the Chinese smartphone market and see what models have been launched, a significant number of them being based on gallium nitride-based quick chargers. You can open them up and do a reverse engineering or buy the appropriate reports of that. Then you will see who the makers of these are.

A big part of that supply chain, some of them are fabless players, pointing then again back to fabless -- to foundries, one name you mentioned, that are producing and who see the demand picking up. So what you have stated is in fact also what we see when we look into the market, especially in Asia, especially in China.

That being said, the volume ramp, for which in 2019 we have seen and we have commented in displays to see a pick up moving from the R&D stage to a volume ramp stage, that volume ramp is now really ongoing with consumers being able to buy the products in the Best Buy, in the Media Mart or whatever these stores are called. That is happening.

With that, we do see orders from customers for expansion for volume and factory expansion coming, both the named and established players, one name you mentioned. And beyond that, we do see quite some momentum from smaller players and startups which are enjoying very healthy investment, both by venture capital and also by government entities in China. So China and Taiwan is a real strong voice in this ramp that we see.

And of course, we also see that the Western players, they may not be yet in the smartphone models. But they are, I think, very fast to follow this trend. Let me put it this way. So the gallium nitride power electronics ramp is now in the early phase.  

Thanks alot for all the good input again, CWL.

Apple seems to be hot on the heals with these sites below with pretty firm views that the 2020 iPhone (to be launched in Fall/winter) will have an option for fast charging.. in my view there is no other tech that can provide that outside of GAN..

so we should expect the iPhone supply chain to get ready for GaN this year... although they will likely also use some of the capacity in the market - though I have no clue about capacity utilisation in the market at current or exclusivity agreements...

https://wccftech.com/...fast-charging-but-ships-with-5w-wall-adapter/

https://www.easyacc.com/media-center/...ttery-life-and-fast-charging/
 

From Aixtron's Master Presentation
 

CPMG's short was closed completely y'day after a 5.9% position in early February...but seems the share price can rise even without this daily demand :-)  

Hi CWL,

thanks alot for sharing. Does Aixtron not have a ca. 50% share in the global Epi Equipment market?

If so, I calculate +23% and +19% growth in the market in 2019 and 2020. Compared to this Aixtron delivered -3% in 2019 and guides (at midpoint) for roughly +6%.

So how reliable/insightful is this market growth assumption?

But the comments on Micro LED (strong driver for 2021) and Power (SIC?; to accelerate from 2021) is a good reminder of the growth potential ahead.

Regards,
Fel  

Hi fel216,

This chart basically comes out of YOLE as is stated on that page. I don't know what the assumptions are in the YOLE model. There are other types of CVD equipment other than MOCVD that are used in Epi growth.  Those CVD equipments are used in the Silicon industry other than compound semiconductors. That is why Aixtron's 2019 equipment revenue is much less than 50% of the 2019 number ($958m), and the growth rate is not consistent with what the model stated.  This is just my hypothesis.  

Another important factor is that the Chinese have the major MOCVD equipment shares on blue LED EPI growth.  

ßß  

Aixtron bekommt Vorstandschef und Finanzvorstand

Nachrichtenagentur: dpa-AFX  |  08.05.2020, 20:32  

HERZOGENRATH (dpa-AFX) - Der LED- und Chipindustrieausrüster Aixtron bekommt einen Vorstandschef. Die neue Position werde das bisherige Vorstandsmitglied Felix Grawert ab dem 1. April 2021 übernehmen, teilte das Unternehmen am Freitagabend in Herzogenrath mit. Das bisher einzige andere Vorstandsmitglied, Bernd Schulte, wird einen Tag früher auf eigenen Wunsch in den Ruhestand gehen. Außerdem soll der Vorstand um eine Position erweitert werden. Der Nominierungsausschuss des Aufsichtsrats sei tätig, um die neue Position des Finanzvorstands kurzfristig zu besetzen. Zudem wurde Jochen Linck zum Vorstandsmitglied bestellt, er wird die Position des Technikchefs spätestens zum 1. Dezember 2020 antreten. Zum 1.4. des Folgejahres soll er dann die Verantwortung für die Bereiche Entwicklung, Einkauf, Fertigung und Logistik, Qualitätsmanagement und IT übernehmen./he/tih
 

was hat Aixtron vor, sondern was hat Herr Schulte vor? Und der geht in den Ruhestand.Vielleicht ist er aber auch krank...Wer weiß etwas zu Jochen Link?  

This is what I wrote April 2019, titled "Chief Financial Officer",  #45472.  It is about time for this necessary move.

"Everyone is puzzled by what has been going on with the share price. Cash flow, working capital management, return on investment, return of cash through dividends buyback, intrinsic value evaluation, cost of capital, communication with investment community, etc. are the job of a good financial officer. If you look at the management structure including the board, this company is run by the Ph.Ds and engineers. This could be the culture of German company especially for a small company, but I wonder that this is an area that needs some change. How to enhance the shareholder value especially from the $$$ perspective not just through "long term" valuation, and communicate effectively with the investment community, should be a very important function and focus of a chief executive manager. I am not sensing that at this point."  

I tend to agree with CWL's take but would add, that a) the company loses an extremely experienced and successfull manager in Dr Schulte who has put Aixtron back on track after the LED implosion in 2020, he is the one that restructured the business and launched the new products that are carrying the business today.

At the same time however I think the more normal structure of 3 Top Managers adds a better organisational structure for the future years which should clearly be GROWTH years... at least as we look back at CWL's chart on SIC, GAN and Micro LED expected developments. In order to manage this growth, you need to be able to operate the company well and execute, here a proper organisational structure with division of work and responsibilities is of utmost importance in my view. A dedicated CEO (negotiates with customers, sets strategy and motivates emoployees), a CFO (focussed on getting the money in, optimising cash flow incl working capital) and a Tech officer (caring about product development, maybe also manufacturing) is the typical division of work compared to the current structure of only two CEO's and a head of the finance department taking care of the financials.

I think this is a great step forward, as long as we dont lose the great insight of the departing CEO.

Regards,
Fel  

Hi CWL et al,

saw this with pretty precise leaks on the upcoming iPhone.. all with 5G and OLED screens.

Given CWL's interest in Samsungs potential APEVA applications also for smaller screens, does that provide any additional isnight into the future use/volume production of OLED or make it applicable for APEVA?
https://www.bild.de/digital/smartphone-und-tablet/...571910.bild.html

Regards!
Fel  

In case of interest, here the link to CREE’s transcript from end of April: https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/...all-transcript.aspx

Besides some other positive (but also some slight negative) comments, this is one of the key statements for me:

„Our more stringent safety measures coupled with the overall operating environment will present some challenges for us in the near term, but we believe the long-term demand remains robust. As we previously mentioned, we are expecting decisions on a significant portion of our roughly $9 billion pipeline in the coming 12 months. As we remain closely engaged with our customers, we are very encouraged by the positive sentiment we're hearing from them, with many of them reconfirming the need for silicon carbide technology.“ (…) „we are in various different phases of design. And in fact some of the design-ins that we got last quarter were indeed in the RF space for GaN and silicon carbide.“  

Hi,

I am flagging the record orders that II-VI announced today, sending the stock +28%. Orders were significantly above expectations and driven by 5G / Datacom.

I would also encourage everyone to look at the presentation (link below), e.g. page 8 shows the future trends, all FULLY confirming the growth expectations Aixtron is preparing for..

DLG, CWL, Zenchen et all, any deeper insights from the release/presentation regarding Aixtron?

Links: For some reason I cannot paste the links, go to ii-vi.com and then under Investors > Presentations (May 2020) and > Financial Releases, the release from last night.  

Regards,
Fel  

Thanks, fel - wanted to post the II-VI results as well.

Cannot comment on 5G / Datacom, but basically liked the following statement from II-VI: "We had a second consecutive quarter of record 3D sensing shipments from our Warren, NJ and Easton, PA, operations. We also successfully completed the qualification of our Sherman, TX facility as planned, and we have begun to ship production units as we continue our manufacturing ramp. We look forward to completing the year on a strong note."

However, I am not able to reconcile such statements with the rather muted Aixtron comments on the recent earnings call - also considering the potential new iphone which is expected to have world-facing sensing as well (as mentioned in your link of that highly respected tech magazine Bild :-)).

 

The second largest short positioned fund, Canada Pension Plan, who has been short since Oct 2017, yesterday reduced the short position from 2.32% to 2.26%. But not sure whether this is the "new CPMG" i.e. fully covering the short, as they have increased/decreased their short position several times in the past.  

abbaut, dann machen die das ja ganz geschickt und zerstören dabei noch endgültig das Vertrauen von Aktionären in die Aktie.  

Thomps, wenn ein HF seine Short-Position abbaut, also Aktien am Markt kauft, warum sollte dabei "das Vertrauen von Aktionären in die Aktie"zerstört werden?  

man als Aktionär sehr deutlich vor Augen geführt bekommt, wie man zum Spielball von LVs wird.
Jahrelang haben hier die meisten, aufgrund der hohen shortquote auf einen "Squeeze out" gewartet.
Jetzt ist er da, nur der Kurs steigt halt nicht...warum wohl?
Könnte es sein, dass das Vertrauen der Aktionäre so stark gelitten hat, dass keiner mehr die Aktie anfassen will? Auffällig sind auch die Pakete, die bei Handelsstart und Ende NYSE geschmissen werde. Kurspflege der LVs?
Aixtron war schon immer volatil, aber für Langfristanleger eine absolute Katastrophe! Nix Squeeze out, auf den großen Deal warten wir seit Jahren, fehlt nur noch eine Kapitalerhöhung...  

Danke für Deine Rückmeldung, Thomps! Mein Feedback darauf ist wie folgt:

Ich sehe nicht, wo ich hier ein „Spielball der LVs“ geworden bin. Canada Pension Plan und CPMG haben Mitte 2018 angefangen ihre Short aufzubauen als der bei Kurs vllt irgendwo zwischen 11-12 Euro stand. Jetzt covern die bei 8-9 Euro im Schnitt. Mein erster Gedanke: die hatten eine gute Markteinschätzung und lagen besser als die Longies. Aber warum „Spielball“ und warum sollte daher das Vertrauen weg sein und andere professionelle Anleger die Aktie nicht mehr anfassen wollen?

Dass die ariva-Boards immer diese „Mutter aller Short Squeezes“ a la Volkswagen erwarten (quer durch alle Boards wie Wirecard, Evotec, Aixtron, etc), habe ich schon jeher für naiv gehalten – das kann man weder Aixtron, noch den LVs, noch irgendjemand anderem vorwerfen. Das ist einfach eine falsche Annahme der Kleinanleger, auch wenn sie mal eintreten können wie bei Tesla.

Die Umsatz-Erwartung für 2020 ist ungefähr so hoch wie der Umsatz in 2018. Wenn es operativ keine Fortschritte gab, warum hätte die Aktie in der Zwischenzeit große Sprünge machen sollen? Das dann den LVs anzuheften, ist mir zu kurz gedacht.

Wie kommst Du drauf, dass der Kurs nicht profitiert? Aixtron liegt in diesem Jahr bei +7% und der Dax notiert bei -20%; also für mich ist eine 27%ige Outperformance schon ein Wort und reflektiert selbstverständlich auch das Covern von CPMG.

Die von Dir angesprochenen Pakete sehe ich nicht; dass zu Börsenbeginn oder wenn die Amis aufmachen, mehr Umsatz reinkommt, ist ja keine neue Erkenntnis. Und woran die Foristi immer erkennen, welches Paket ein LV oder ein „normaler“ Marktteilnehmer ist, das habe ich noch nie verstanden :-)