POTASH
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Potash has only made a lower low, and to be confirmed as a downtrend, would need to make a lower high and then swing back to take out the lower low.
Citigroup tips China to pay $150/ton more for potash imports this year (sharply higher than $5/ton rise in 2007), mainly due to global tight supply;
China imports 70-80% of potash it needs to increase crop yield.
Expects China to sign 2008 trade contracts with export countries (e.g. Russia, Canada) after Communist Party congress in March, "as any major increase would reflect poorly on the government's effort to control inflation." Keeps Hold on Sinofert (0297.HK), major Chinese importer of potash, target at HK$7.60; stock +2.7% at HK$7.13. Still, says stock could have upside on potential M&A, asset injection from parent.
15.02.2008 Belarusian Potash Company Raises Export Prices for Sri Lanka
Belarusian Potash Company has raised the prices for the deliveries of potash fertilisers to Sri Lanka by USD 50 up to USD 550 per tonne, BelTA was told in the public relations department of the company.
"A tender for the potassium fertiliser supplies to Sri-Lanka won by BPC enables us to raise the export prices for the products of the Belorussian and Russian potash companies," the company said. After winning the tender the company concluded several new contracts to supply potassium fertilisers to Indonesia and Malaysia at the price of USD 550 per tonne. Overall volume of supplies to the three countries will amount to 100,000 tonnes.
In December 2007, the Belarusian Potash Company announced a USD 100 increase in the prices for Southeast Asia markets up to USD 500 per tonne. According to the company's general director Vladimir Nikolaenko, the demand for potash fertilisers in the world market is strong, stimulated by tight supply, and being estimated at 1.5m to 2m tonnes. In 2008, the prices will continue growing as the output will edge up a little.
Belarusian Potash Company is an exclusive supplier of potash fertilisers produced by Belaruskali and Russian Uralkali to the international market. The company sells its products to Africa, Europe, India, China, the USA, the Pacific region, Central and South America. The company has a well-developed distribution network and representative offices in Beijing, New Delhi, Singapore, San Paulo, and Chicago.
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Sil'vinit OAO is a Russia-based company involved in the production of mineral fertilizers. Its offer includes potassium chloride, potassium fertilizers and salt. The Company delivers its products to all regions of Russia and over 60 countries worldwide. As of December 31, 2007, Sil'vinit OAO had 18 subsidiaries. It is headquartered in Solikamsk, Russian Federation.
Trend Spotter TM Hold
Short Term Indicators
7 Day Average Directional Indicator Buy
10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Buy
20 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
20 Day Bollinger Bands Hold
Short Term Indicators Average: 80% - Buy
20-Day Average Volume - 8413060
Medium Term Indicators
40 Day Commodity Channel Index Hold
50 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
50 Day Parabolic Time/Price Buy
Medium Term Indicators Average: 75% - Buy
50-Day Average Volume - 8296888
Long Term Indicators
60 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy
100 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
Long Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy
100-Day Average Volume - 6154949
Overall Average: 80% - Buy
Price Support Pivot Point Resistance
160.57 156.12 161.62 167.12
Bullish (0.42) Neutral (0.04) Very Bullish (0.62) Very Bullish (0.58)
Support/Resistance
Type | Value | Conf. |
resist. | 170.11 | 1 |
resist. | 164.28 | 2 |
resist. | 162.40 | 2 |
supp | 155.55 | 4 |
supp | 148.84 | 8 |
supp | 145.00 | 2 |
supp | 141.75 | 7 |
supp | 133.28 | 3 |
supp | 124.37 | 9 |
supp | 114.10 | 2 |
supp | 109.42 | 2 |
supp | 106.18 | 2 |
supp | 103.68 | 4 |
The MACD for POT currently indicates a strong bullish signal for two reasons. First, the MACD is above the signal line, a 9minute moving average. Second, the MACD is above 0 which implies that the underlying moving averages are trending higher.
Potash Negotiation Key Driver For Sinofert-Citi
Sinofert (0297.HK) +1.7% at HK$7.30; shares have risen 75% over past 12 months on China's strong demand for chemical fertilizers.
Citigroup says 2008 potash import negotiation with Canada remains key driver; house tips 2008 import price to rise US$185/ton vs only US$5/ton in 2007. In 2006, Sinofert delayed shipment from Canada until August (as they didn't agree on prices), which seriously hit Sinofert's revenue. Says "we see regulatory risk on both the timing on 2008 potash negotiation and Sinofert's pricing power." Keeps Hold call, target stays at HK$7.60.