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| Neuester Beitrag: | 25.04.21 11:06 | von: Danielatxvsa | Leser gesamt: | 21.242 |
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hardyman
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| Boardmail an "hardyman" |
Wertpapier: Turbo-Bull auf DAX (Per |
hardyman
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| Boardmail an "hardyman" |
Wertpapier: Turbo-Bull auf DAX (Per |
@hardy: zu 1,00 (kk 1,14). das war so ein typischer fall von tipp aufnehmen, nicht sauber recherchieren - und schon reingefallen. das hätte ich gestern abend besser durchdenken sollen
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Hilfe
Sektor
Standard
Gleit. Durchsch.
Unterst./Widerst.
Candlesticks
Langfristig
Kurzfristig
Frühwarnmeldung
Kaufkandidat - 16. Sep 2003 | ||||
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| Boardmail an "hardyman" |
Wertpapier: Turbo-Bull auf DAX (Per |
wer hat erfahrung/literatur/ tipps zum spread-trading????
greetz
In der Vorschau ist er noch da.
hardyman
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| Boardmail an "hardyman" |
Wertpapier: Turbo-Bull auf DAX (Per |
btw: wlan ist klasse, da kann man surfen und fussball sehen ;-) und nebenbei einen mönch trinken!
Quantity:
Product ID: 1300 Category: Spread Trading
das habe ich gefunden, wahrscheinlich kennst du es schon
GRüße
MR2
Futures Spread Trading
ISBN: 0934380481
Author: Courtney Smith
Availability: Usually ships within 24 hours.
Type: Hardcover
Date Published: 2000
Publisher: Traders Press, Inc.
Price: $49.95
Description:
Buy as part of bundled set and save!
Trading Spreads and Seasonals
Futures Spread Trading
Buy as part of bundled set and save!
Seasonality
Futures Spread Trading
Over the years, commodity markets have increasingly caught the attention of investors and the general public. The rapidly escalating prices of 1973 and the explosion in 1980 probably did more to spark this interest than any event in recent times. Increasing volume and increasing value have been the hallmarks of commodity markets for many years.
In spite of the greater interest in commodities, spread trading has received little attention. Spread trading is the simultaneous purchase of one commodity futures contract and sale of a different contract. The contracts can be different delivery months in the same commodity; they can be two different commodities that are related; they can be the same commodity traded in two different locations.
Spread trading has always been an important part of the commodity futures marketplace. Large commercial firms are often large spreaders that analyze and utilize commodity spreads in many ways. As a simple example, commercial firms frequently use spreads to move their hedges from one contract month to another. They trade spreads in an effort to recover the costs of storing and financing their inventories. They examine spreads to determine where they will deliver their particular commodity. These are but a few of the ways in which commercial firms utilize commodity spreads.
Large speculators are also heavy users of commodity spreads. It is not uncommon for large speculators to have more than one-third of their positions in spreads. Let's look at the wheat market as an example. On November 30, 1980, large speculative traders had 80% of their contracts involved in spreads! Why large speculators are so interested in spreads is examined in Chapter 3.
Nearly all spread trades are traded by either the large speculators or by the commercial firms. These sophisticated participants in the commodity futures market are knowledgeable about spreads and are extensive users of spread trading techniques. On the other hand, the small speculator is an infrequent user of spreads.
There are a number of possible reasons why small speculators don't trade spreads frequently. It could be because of the greater complexity of analysis: they must analyze two positions instead of one. The fundamentalist will have to analyze the relative supply and demand of two contracts rather than just the overall supply and demand. Analysis of relative supply and demand is a very subtle problem. It could also be that the majority of small speculators are not familiar enough with fundamentals to trade spreads. Most analysis of spreads centers on fundamental analysis, whereas most speculative analysis of outright positions centers on technical analysis.
In spite of these factors, the small speculator should be vitally interested in spreads. For reasons that are explained more fully in Chapter 3, the small speculator can improve profit potential by trading spreads properly. As the prices and volatility of commodity futures contracts increase, there becomes an even greater need for information on spread trading. Spread trading can provide a vehicle to decrease the volatility and the risk of futures trading. The two major approaches to analyzing commodity futures are called fundamental analysis and technical analysis.
Fundamental analysis is directed primarily toward the elucidation and analysis of the supply and demand situation. The fundamentalist will look at such factors as planting, exports, crop production, domestic disappearance, weather, and currency fluctuations. Fundamental analysis seeks not only to discover the factors that go into making the current price what it is but also to predict what those factors will be in the future.
Technical analysis can consider only those factors that marketplace itself is composed of. The technician will look at such things as price action, volume, and open interest to help determine an opinion of the market. The technician largely seeks to either describe or predict the market action. That is, she or he tries to describe the present market action and assumes that the current situation will continue in the future. The descriptive technician assumes that a market will continue for a long enough time to create a profitable trade. The predictive technician tries to discover technical factors that give insight into the future of prices, and is less concerned with the marketplace as it exists.
Many people believe the fundamentalist has the harder task. The sources of information, the sheer weight of the information, and the greater depth of insight necessary to analyze the information are all factors that make the fundamentalist's job more difficult.
It is no accident that the state of the art of technical analysis is more advanced than that of fundamental analysis. There are many books written about how to analyze the market using a technical basis. Books detailing fundamental analysis, however, are rare.
Both types of analysis are discussed in every chapter of this book, except Chapter 12, which is devoted entirely to some of the classic ideas of technical analysis.
The book is organized with the basics of spread trading in the first several chapters and the more esoteric subject in the later chapters.
Chapter 2 answers the question What is a spread? and is directed at either the novice or the experienced trader who wants a review. It is recommended that all readers look at this chapter. Many terms in spread trading are confusing or contradictory. For example, the term spread can refer to either the subject of this book or the distance between the bid and ask prices for a commodity. Chapter 2 defines the conventions that are followed in the remainder of the book.
Chapter 3 outlines some of the reasons why a trader should trade spreads. It also looks at some of the reasons why a trader who doesn't want to trade spreads should still follow spread price action. Answers are given from the point of view of large speculators, small speculators, and hedgers.
Chapter 4 is a discussion of some of the reasons that spread prices move. We look briefly at the random walk theory as well as arguments against it. We look at some of the interaction of the participants in the marketplace that suggest why spreads move. This chapter, though speculative, provides the rationale and framework for much of the analysis that follows.
Chapter 5 is a detailed analysis of carrying charges. The chapter examines how to calculate them and what can make them change in value.
Chapter 6 is an extension of the concepts outlined in Chapter 5. Techniques are given for trading spreads that are close to the full cost of storage, insurance, and financing. The chapter also discusses how to profit from changes in the carrying charges.
Chapter 7 is a special chapter on just interest rate spreads. These are perhaps the most common spreads; it was useful to show the drivers of the spreads in a separate chapter.
Chapter 8 is devoted to the techniques involved in bull and bear spreading. Bull and bear spreads are often used as substitutes for outright positions. Techniques for this purpose as well as techniques of analysis are considered here.
Chapter 9 is the first of two chapters that use historical information in analyzing commodity spreads. The techniques center on discovering years that have similar fundamentals and then analyzing the predicted price behavior on that basis.
Chapter 10 discusses seasonal price behavior of futures spreads. This is a particularly powerful method for raw material spreads. There is a discussion of the various methods of determining seasonal price behavior.
Chapter 11 presents probably the first published discussion of linear regression and correlation analysis of commodity spreads. These forms of analysis attempt to quantify the effects of changes in the supply and demand factors on the price of the spread. Although this chapter has a great amount of mathematics, the math looks harder than it is.
Chapter 12 outlines some of the classic approaches to the broad area called technical analysis. This is a discussion of chart patterns in relation to spreads. There are many more forms of technical analysis, but I just wanted to show how the basics apply to spreads. Virtually every other form of technical analysis can be applied to spreads.
Chapter 13 looks at those things that are unique to intermarket spreads or spreads of similar futures but traded on different exchanges. Several of the more important spreads of this type are examined.
Chapter 14 looks at spreads between different commodities and the factors that are unique to the trading of them. Unfortunately, there are a huge number of different intermarket spread relationships. This chapter outlines several of the most popular ones.
Chapter 15 outlines the construction of a trading plan. A sample trading plan and a method of weekly updating are presented. Trading plans can be a major contributor to profitable trading.
Chapter 16 is a potpourri of trading tips that don't fit into any other chapter, and
Chapter 17 lists sources of further information.
In summary, the book provides an introduction to the basic concepts of spread trading as well as an outline of more advanced techniques.
About the Author:
Courtney Smith: ...background is most impressive. His rich, lengthy and varied background in many aspects of the investment business is virtually unparalleled among financial authors. He is current President of Courtney Smith & Co., an investment management company, and of Pinnacle Capital Strategies, Inc. which manages a family of hedge funds. He is also owner and Editor-In-Chief of Commodity Traders Consumers Report (CTCR), the premier tracking service for the futures industry.
Former positions held include Chief Investment Strategist of Orbitex Management, Inc., manager of over $5 billion in mutual funds and portfolios; President of Quantum Financial Services, a $100 million futures and stock brokerage firm; Director of Futures Research at Paine Webber, Inc., and VP of a Swiss bank and of French Banque Paribas.
Mr. Smith is author of six books, each relating to futures and options trading, and is author of chapters in several other books in this same subject area. He has been a featured speaker at investment conferences throughout North American and Europe, and is often a featured guest on CNBC as well as many appearances on other national financial television shows.
hardyman
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| Boardmail an "hardyman" |
Wertpapier: Turbo-Bull auf DAX (Per |
Habe sie noch nie so stark spielen sehen !! Also auch wenn der Dow nicht
läuft , dann wenigstens meine Mannschaft ! Bis später und grüsse an all
Oni
