der Euro/Dollar Long Thread

nur gut dass ich gestern noch aus allen eur/usd calls raus bin...  

cosinus:

 

und ich bin lon, sowas! *g o. T.

04.01.05 17:27

 

 

um halb sechs abends noch long und über nacht plötzlich raus, das sind immer die geilsten!!

 

kann ich verkraften nach dem gestrigen Tag, hol ich mir mit DaxPut schon wieder rein!

Gruß Pichel

 

morgen zusammen...Zinserhöhung hin oder her, was da derzeit abgeht (Tageskerzen!) ist trotzdem ziemlich krass...

bei ca. 1,3150 bin ich wieder dabei

mfg
füx  

 

Kauf CB8L7L zu 4,03 (1,3175)

mfg
füx  

...der euro müsste mal langsam einen kleinen sprung nach oben machen.

wo hängts?
 

dachte ich mir auch; aber die ganze Börsenwelt scheint derzeit wohl Euro-Short zu sein...scheint "ihnen" ja egal zu sein, dass der Euro in 5 Tagen fast 5 Cent verloren hat...bin auch etwas ratlos derzeit...

möchte aber trotzdem bei der (eventuellen) Gegenbewegung auf jeden Fall dabei sein ! auch wenns riskant ist...

eine Bitte hätte ich an Dich: kannst du mir den Link zur Saxo-Bank hereinstellen (wenn kostenlos)...war gerade auf deren Homepage, konnte aber die täglichen Markteinschätzungen zu den Devisen nicht finden...danke im voraus

füx  

nur als registrierter user (2x täglich) per email.

nichts mit link.

gruß



http://www.saxobank.com/Default.aspx?id=1458

 

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION

European confidence data may be somewhat in focus – this data is released at 10:00 GMT- 

USD may head to weaker end of the range as the market could look to take its breath before Friday’s important US employment data.

Trading Note: If the markets want to take the Friday nonfarm payrolls seriously (something they haven’t really done the last couple of times around as markets were more concerned with the central bank reserve situation), then it seems like we could see a reasonable-size pullback to the weaker end of the EUR range.The JPY may strengthen again.

---

EURUSD EURUSD could find support at the 1.3250 area today and may head higher and even break 1.3300 area resistance. The maximum topside for now would seem to be around 1.3350, however, as EURUSD may head lower toward 1.3100 further out.

Resist. 1.3439 1.3350 1.3232 1.3172 1.3083 Support

---

GBPUSD GBPUSD eased well back toward 1.8800 support. The pair could rally a bit today if the market sees a round of USD weakness ahead of tomorrow’s employment data. The maximum potential upside for now would seem to be around 1.8940. Resistance may materialize soon as this pair looks like it may head to 1.8650 or lower further out.

Resist. 1.9072 1.8947 1.8792 1.8697 1.8572 Support

---

USDJPY USDJPY found strong resistance yesterday. 104.30 is minor resistance and 104.75 a more important resistance level. A break of the latter could see USDJPY to 105.75. A fall through 103.25, however, could jeopardize the whole rally potential of this pair.

Resist. 106.82 105.57 104.56 103.07 101.82 Support

---

EURJPY EURJPY fell all the way to the recent lows just below 138.00, but managed to find support there and has headed higher to 138.30 minor resistance. The pair could pull higher still to the higher resistance at 139.00, but the chart remains distinctly bearish and EURJPY may head quickly to 137.00 and then 135.00 further out.

Resist. 140.58 139.43 138.34 137.13 135.98 Support

 

 

 

füx  

paro
 

Gruß Pichel

 

LONDON (AFX) - The dollar rallied against the major currencies Thursday
, extending gains for the year as expectations build U.S. jobs growth
could top 200,000 in December.

"It's not just a correction anymore. There are now fresh, speculative
flows supporting the U.S. dollar," said Peter Stoneham, managing
currency analyst at Thomson IFR in London.

U.S. job figures, due out Friday, are forecast to show that nonfarm
payrolls grew by 186,000 in December, beating the prior month's 112,000
-job gain.

The dollar rose 0.6 percent against the euro at $1.3191 and rose 0.7
percent on the British pound at $1.8722. The dollar traded at 104.88
yen, compared with 104.10 yen late Wednesday in the United States.

Masatoshi Nishi, chief manager of the treasury and securities division
at Saitama Resona Bank in Tokyo, overnight said investors were buying
of the dollar to pare their short positions, and the greenback could
come under pressure as they take profits on these positions.

"That would pave the way for more dollar selling," he said.


U.S. trade Wednesday

The dollar hit its best level against the euro in three weeks before
paring gains in U.S. trading Wednesday, amid heightened prospects that
the U.S. Federal Reserve would continue to raise interest rates.

Currency traders said the inability of the dollar to extend its gains
after an upbeat reading for a U.S. measure of the services economy
could mean the dollar's three-day rally had gone too far without a
pullback.

The Institute for Supply Management's nonmanufacturing index
unexpectedly rose to 63.1 percent from 61.3 percent in November. This
is the highest level since July.

The dollar's mostly technical-driven, early-year bounce from
December's multiyear lows was accelerated by the release on Tuesday of
minutes from the Fed's Dec. 14 policy meeting.

Currency analysts at Nomura Securities believe markets are
interpreting the minutes as an indication that the Fed will not take a
break in the tightening cycle. "Hence, depending on the incoming data,
all meetings for the foreseeable future are likely to deliver 25 basis
point rate hikes."

Higher U.S. rates could draw more foreign capital to U.S. markets, a
prospect that pushed the euro to as low as $1.3213 earlier. One euro
was worth $1.3255 in late trade, down 0.2 percent on the day.

The dollar gained initially against the Japanese yen, but turned
negative. One dollar was worth 104.10 yen, a loss of 0.2 percent
compared to where it stood in late U.S. trading Tuesday.

Short-term interest-rate futures contracts reflect increased
expectations among investors that the Fed's current 2.25 percent target
will be as high as 3.25 percent by the conclusion of the central
bank's June meeting. Before, financial markets thought the Fed might
pause in raising rates by the late spring.

Foreign capital inflows are seen as a key short-term offset to record
U.S. trade and budget deficits, bringing relative stability to the
economy and the dollar.

U.S. data, for the most part, continue to outshine results from the
world's other economic heavyweights.

The eurozone purchasing managers' index for the services sector was
unchanged at 52.6 in December.

The key indicator for currency markets has been the imbalance in the
U.S. current account, a broad measure of trade that includes investment
flows.

It stands at more than 5 percent of U.S. gross domestic product, the
biggest share ever. The United States must draw enough foreign capital
to finance this gap, which it has managed to do so far.

This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see
www.cbsmarketwatch.com.

Copyright AFX News. Any extraction and
re-distribution of information in any form, electronic or otherwise is
strictly forbidden. Neither the hosting company nor AFX News warrants
the suitability of the service as a trading aid and neither accepts any
liability for losses howsoever incurred by clients.
 

bin wohl wieder mal auf der falschen Seite *g*...

bleib trotzdem long

SL bei 1,3150

füx
 

gebe mich geschlagen...

VK CB8L7L zu 4,08 (1,24% Gewinn)

Arbeitsmarktdaten um 14:30 sind mir zu riskant...

füx  

CB8L7L zu 3,99 (1,3168)

SL bei 1,3150

mfg
füx  

Gruß Pichel

 

die 1,32 wären wichtig...

füx  

here we go...fragt sich nur wie lange...

füx  

 

es schreit eigentlich nach einer (von mir aus kurzen) Gegenbewegung...

füx

 

 

wäre schon froh, wenn wir uns jetzt mal etwas von der 1,32 absetzen könnten...wäre mit 1,3240/50 auch schon sehr zufrieden...

 

wenn dir zurückerobert werden, nicht gut...
 

wenn ich seit 1,36+ short wäre und morgen wartet der Arbeitsmarktbericht, dann würde ich doch bei Kursen unter 1,32 Gewinne mitnehmen, oder ?

füchsleinlogik ?

auf jeden Fall bin ich raus, falls wir nochmals unter 1,3195 laufen sollten...ins Minus läuft mir diese Position auf keine Fall nicht mehr!

mfg und viel glück
füx