Steht Delta Petroleum jetzt kurz vor Settlement...
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Vielleicht kommt dieses vielversprochene Settlement doch bald und dies laesst jetzt den Kurs weiter anziehen. Habe da von der Research Company RJFalkner
eine interessante Nachricht erhalten. Die spekulieren da, dass der neue kalifornische Gouverneur Arnold Schwarzenegger, Republikaner, jetzt die Wende in
der ganzen Sache bringen koennte.
Folgend die Meldung
In an article that appeared in the Los Angeles Times last Sunday (October 12, 2003) entitled " California; `A Very Clear Vision` for State" , that reviewed
Governor-Elect Arnold Schwarzenegger`s agenda for the state, the following was part of a section on the Environment:
" Describing himself as an environmentalist, he (Schwarzenegger) also said he would prevent coastal oil drilling...."
Schwarzenegger, responding to an L.A. Times questionnaire, said, " California`s coast is recognized worldwide as one of our most precious resources, and
it must be protected."
" He also said the federal government should buy up offshore oil leases as it did in Florida."
The L.A. Times article was followed by an article in Thursday`s Santa Barbara News-Press reporting thatPresident Bush is looking to form an alliance with
Governor Schwarzenegger that can help the Republicans lock up California`s electoral votes in the 2004 Presidential election. The article noted that Bush and
Schwarzenegger would be meeting today in Riverside, California, at which meeting the Governor-elect would provide a list of things that he wants from the
Federal Government, including a buyback of the offshore California leases.
Several months ago, the U.S. Department of Interior, in a news release from Interior Dept. Secretary Gail Norton`s office, publicly stated that the government
no longer planned to pursue the development of the contested offshore leases and that a more logical resolution to the issue would involve a settlement of the
litigation with the oil companies (including DPTR) that own the leases.
Folgend RJFalkner spekuliert jetzt ueber den weiteren Verlauf, was recht einleuchtend ist.
1. The Bush Administration, in their opinion, places a high priority on California`s electorial votes in next year`s Presidential election.
2. The Federal Government has publicly indicated that it believes a settlement of the offshore lease litigation would be the most reasonable resolution.
3. If the Federal Government is going to make a " settlement offer" to the oil companies, it would make more sense for them to do so after the new governor
has taken office (Arnold will be sworn in early during the month of November), so that a Republican governor can " take credit" for a deal that prohibits future
drilling in the disputed areas off California`s coast.
4. The Bush Administration will face great criticism from Democrats in California if the contentious issue of offshore California drilling is not resolved by the
time the Presidential campaign gets into high gear (no later than early next Spring). President Bush has already been criticized by Democrats for the Federal
Government`s buyback of the Destin Dome oil/gas leases offshore Florida at a time when such action benefited his brother Jeb`s gubernatorial re-election
campaign in that State a couple of years ago. If the U.S. Government does not buy back the offshore California leases before the Presidential campaign gets
rolling in earnest, the Democrats will " roast" President Bush for ignoring environmental issues in California, while showing " favoritism" during his brother`s
re-election campaign in Florida.
When the above observations are combined with (1) strong economic and legal arguments that it would be in the Federal Government`s best interests to
settle the breach of contract lawsuit filed by the oil companies in early 2002, and (2) the legal precedence established by the Federal Government`s buyback
of disputed oil/gas leases offshore North Carolina and offshore Florida, we believe the " stars are lining up" for an outcome that should significantly benefit
DPTR shareholders in the next few months.
As we have noted in our Research Profile reports on Delta Petroleum, if the Federal Government were to buy back the California leases for an amount
approximating the original lease bonus costs and rental payments, DPTR`s portion of such a settlement would approximate $5.50 per share.
In our opinion, DPTR shares are currently selling for a very modest premium to the Company`s current estimated Net Asset Value of $4.50+ per share,
WITHOUT giving ANY value to the California leases. Thus, any settlement of the litigation that results in a buy back of the leases should be highly accretive to
DPTR`s share price.
sich Delta mehr und mehr auf Erdgas konzentriert. RJ Falkner schreibt in seinem Research Profil, dass eine wachsende Anzahl von Energieexperten und Wirtschaftsbeobachter jetzt glauben, dass die USA an der Schwelle eines beachtlichen Engpasses fuer Erdgas stehen. Und dies duerfte einen Gaspreis von \$5 oder mehr je tausend Kubikfuss unterstuetzen in der absehbaren Zukunft unterstuetzen. Delta hat laut Praesentation 90 Milliarden Kubikfuss an nachgewiesenen Gasaequivalentvorraeten. 61% davon ist Erdgas. Die wahrscheinlichen/moeglichen Vorraete belaufen sich auf 115 Milliarden Kubikfuss. Die Foerderung liegt jetzt bei 22,4 Millionen Kubikfuss
pro Tag und fuer FY 2004 wird ein Cashflow von \$18 Mio. erwartet.
Falkner erwartet in den naechsten 12 Monaten einen Kurs von \$8 ohne die zu erwartenden Gelder aus der California Litigation.
letzten Neuigkeiten ueber das Settlement zusammen. Habe den folgenden Bericht von Falkner. Also, die US-Regierung hat jetzt bis zum 8.1.04 Zeit, dann
muessen sie sich ueber das Settlement aeussern. Und die Sache mit den Gasquellen in Wyoming sieht auch sehr gut aus. \$12+ als Kursziel nennen die
jetzt konservativ.
The judge in the " California vs. Gail Norton" case issued a ruling last week that, in effect, criticized the US Government for its lack of progress in settlement
talks with oil companies re: the offshore California leases, and for not filing its " consistency determination" (which we believe is the LAST THING the
government wants to be forced to do).
The judge told the government that it must file a brief with the court by January 8, 2004 that discloses the following:
1. Updates the court as to the status of settlement negotiations with the oil companies
2. Discusses the prospects for achieving a settlement
and
3. Provides an estimate of when a settlement can be reached.
If the judge finds the brief " reasonable" , then she says she will " monitor" the progress of the settlement negotiations.
If the judge does not find the brief " reasonable" , she will likely set a date (not too far in the future) by which the government must submit its " consistency
determination" .
So, at the very least, it appears that we will see a brief filed with the court that describes the status of, and the outlook for, a settlement with DPTR and the
other oil companies re: the offshore California oil/gas leases. This should be a public document, which means that it will be available for investors to peruse
and build into their valuation models for DPTR. As you may recall, we estimate that DPTR could receive compensation in of more than \$5.00 per share in a
successful settlement with the government.
On another subject, DPTR management appears very optimistic regarding drilling activities in the Fuller Reservoir in Wyoming. First well is producing at over
1 million cubic feet of gas per day (mmcfd), and the second at around 2 mmcfd. Plans are to drill 10-11 more wells by end of FY (June 2004). With a 75%
working interest, we estimate that when a dozen of these wells are on line (over 40 could eventually be drilled), they could increase DPTR`s annualized
revenue `run rate` by more than \$20 million (the company`s total revenue last fiscal year was \$24 million). Each well, which costs about \$700,000 to drill
and complete, should add about 1.5 billion cubic feet of gas to the company`s reserves.
This story just keeps getting better and better. Our 12-month price target for DPTr shares of \$8+ withou the California settlement is now looking
conservative, as is our price target of \$12+ with a successful California settlement.
R. Jerry Falkner, CFA
President
RJ FALKNER & COMPANY, INC.
koennten da gebohrt werden. Laut bericht koennte jede Quelle ca. \$1,35 Mio. an jaehrlichen Einnahmen bringen. Dieses Jahr wird sehr interessant werden.
etwas positives schliessen lassen. Aber so schoen sich das mit der Abfindung auch anhoert, so wirklich Geld duerfte Delta mit seinem Gasfeld im Freemont
County, Wyoming, machen. Laut dem letzten Bericht von SISM koennte das voll erschlossene Feld bis zu $40 Mio. pro Jahr an Einnahmen liefern. Eine weitere
interessante Sache ist, dass dieses Gasfeld in der Mitte von Prospektionsflaechen liegt, die das Unternehmen TOM BROWN Inc. besitzt. Tom Brown ist ein
Multi-Milliarden-Unternehmen und ich koennte mir denken, dass die schon auf Deltas Gasfeld aufmerksam geworden sind. Und falls es zu einem Angebot
kommen sollte, dann duerfte sich das schon um eine dreistellige Millionensumme handeln. Ich denke, dass dies der Markt jetzt so langsam sieht und sich das im
Kurs reflektiert.