Sehen wir den Anfang einer weltweiten Rezession?
"Alles spricht dafür, dass es recht glimpflich abläuft", sagte Scheide
Herr Scheide und Frau kamen zu diesem wahrhaft epochalen Ergebnis durch intensives Studium der Märkte (Chart angesehen von Dow,S&p,Dax und noch so'n Index und festgestellt, hey sind ja gar nicht so tief gefallen. Ergo sagt Herr S. zu seiner Frau "mein Scheidchen (so nennt er sie liebevoll) alles spricht dafür, dass es recht glimpflich abläuft!! und Frau Scheide nickt zustimmend, froh ein so potentes Finanzgenie geheiratet zu haben, denn schon seit frühester Jugend hatte sie den Wahlspruch :"Ohne Moos nix los".
Und sie lebten glücklich und zufrieden noch viele Tage, bis, ja bis es halt nicht so glimpflich ablief:-))
sogenannte Experten und Gurus habe ich bisher immer nur zur Kenntnis genommen
und habe meistens in meinen Entscheidungen dagegen gehalten und gewonnen.
Wer sich von diesen Nadelstreifen Trägern beeinflussen lässt ist selbst Schuld.
Hier im Forum gibt es weitaus bessere Analysten denen die o.g. Experten nicht mal das Wasser reichen können.
Gute Nacht
Tommi
Optionen
 |
New wave of mortgage failures could create a nightmare economic scenarioBy JOE BEL BRUNO updated 12:03 a.m. ET Nov. 24, 2007By JOE BEL BRUNOAP Business WriterThe Associated Pressupdated 12:03 a.m. ET Nov. 24, 2007
NEW YORK - When Domenico Colombo saw that his monthly mortgage payment was about to balloon by 30 percent, he had a clear picture of how bad it could get.
His payment was scheduled to surge by an extra $1,500 in December. With his daughter headed to college next fall and tuition to be paid, he feared ending up like so many neighbors in Ft. Lauderdale, Fla., who defaulted on their mortgages and whose homes are now in foreclosure and sporting "For Sale" signs.
Colombo did manage to renegotiate a new fixed interest rate loan with his bank, and now believes he'll be OK _ but the future is less certain for the rest of us.
In the months ahead, millions of other adjustable-rate mortgages like Colombo's will reset, giving them a higher interest rate as required by the loan agreements and leaving many homeowners unable to make their payments. Soaring mortgage default rates this year already have shaken major financial institutions and the fallout from more of them, some experts say, could spread from those already battered banks into the general economy.
The worst-case scenario is anyone's guess, but some believe it could become very bad.
"We haven't faced a downturn like this since the Depression," said Bill Gross, chief investment officer of PIMCO, the world's biggest bond fund. He's not suggesting anything like those terrible times _ but, as an expert on the global credit crisis, he speaks with authority.
"Its effect on consumption, its effect on future lending attitudes, could bring us close to the zero line in terms of economic growth," he said. "It does keep me up at night."
Some 2 million homeowners hold $600 billion of subprime adjustable-rate mortgage loans, known as ARMs, that are due to reset at higher amounts during the next eight months. Subprime loans are those made to people with poor credit. Not all these mortgages are in trouble, but homeowners who default or fall behind on payments could cause an economic shock of a type never seen before.
Some of the nation's leading economic minds lay out a scenario that is frightening. Not only would the next wave of the mortgage crisis force people out of their homes, it might also spiral throughout the economy.
The already severe housing slump would be exacerbated by even more empty homes on the market, causing prices to plunge by up to 40 percent in once-hot real estate spots such as California, Nevada and Florida. Builders like Chicago's Neumann Homes, which filed for bankruptcy protection this month, could go under. The top 10 global banks, which repackage loans into exotic securities such as collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, could suffer far greater write-offs than the $75 billion already taken this year.
Massive job losses would curtail consumer spending that makes up two-thirds of the economy. The Labor Department estimates almost 100,000 financial services jobs related to credit and lending in the U.S. have already been lost, from local bank loan officers to traders dealing in mortgage-backed securities. Thousands of Americans who work in the housing industry could find themselves on the dole. And there's no telling how that would affect car dealers, retailers and others dependent on consumer paychecks.
Based on historical models, zero growth in the U.S. gross domestic product would take the current unemployment rate to 6.4 percent. That would wipe out about 3 million jobs from the economy, according to the Washington-based Economic Policy Institute.
By comparison, in the last big downturn between 2001-03 some 2 million jobs were lost, according to the Labor Department. The dot-com bust early this decade decimated the technology sector, while the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks hurt the transportation and allied industries. Economists said the country was officially in recession from March to November of 2001, but the aftermath stretched to 2003.
There is increasing evidence that another downturn has begun.
Borrowers who took out loans in the first six months of this year are already falling behind on their payments faster than those who took out loans in 2006, according to a report from Arlington, Va.-based investment bank Friedman, Billings Ramsey. That's making it even harder for would-be buyers to get new mortgages _ a frightening prospect for home builders with projects going begging on the market, and for homeowners desperate to unload property to avoid defaulting on their loans.
Meanwhile, the number of U.S. homes in foreclosure is expected to keep soaring after more than doubling during the third quarter from a year earlier, to 446,726 homes nationwide, according to Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac Inc. That's one foreclosure filing for every 196 households in the nation, a 34 percent jump from just three months earlier.
Such data suggests more Americans could lose their homes than ever before, and those in peril are people who never thought they'd welsh on a mortgage payment. They come from a broad swath _ teachers, pharmacists, and civil servants who were lured by enticing mortgage terms.
Some homebuyers gambled on interest-only loans. The mortgages, which allowed buyers to pay just interest at a low rate for two years, were too good to pass up. But with that initial term now expiring, many homeowners find they can't make the payments. The hopes that went along with those mortgages _ that they'd be able to refinance because the equity in their homes would appreciate _ have been dashed as home prices skidded across the country.
"It's been said a lot of people have been using their homes as ATM machines," said Thomas Lawler, a former official at mortgage lender Fannie Mae who is now a private housing and finance consultant. "The risk has a lot of tentacles."
This example illustrates the distress many homeowners are in or will find themselves in: A subprime adjustable-rate mortgage on a $400,000 home could have payments of about $2,200 a month, with borrowers paying 6.5 percent, interest only. When the teaser period expires, that payment becomes $4,000, with the homeowner paying 12 percent and now having to come up with principal as well as interest.
Minneapolis resident Chad Raskovich found himself in a such a situation. He hoped _ it turned out, in vain _ to gain more equity in his home and that a strong record of payments would enable him to secure a better loan later on.
"It's not just me, it's a lot of people I know. The housing market in the Twin Cities has dramatically changed for the worse in the years since I purchased my home. Now we're just looking for a solution," he said.
Colombo, who lives in the planned community of Weston just outside Ft. Lauderdale, said the reset on his home would have "destroyed' his financial situation. He went to Mortgage Repair Center, one of hundreds of debt counselors trying to bail out desperate homeowners, to work with his lender.
"But many people in my neighborhood didn't get help, and some have literally just walked away from their homes," said Colombo. "There are over 133,000 homes on the market in Broward-Miami-Dade counties, and some of them were actually abandoned. People in this situation don't like to talk about it, and end up getting hurt because they don't."
Many Americans are unaware that a borrower defaulting on a loan can have an impact on everyone else's well-being and that of the nation. After all, the amount of mortgages due to reset is just a fraction of the United States' $14 trillion economy.
But the series of plunges that Wall Street has suffered in past months prove that no one is immune when mortgages turn sour.
Today's financial system is interconnected: Mortgages are sold to investment firms, which then slice them up and package them as securities based on risk. Then hedge and pension funds buy up such investments.
When home prices kept rising, these were lucrative assets to own. But the ongoing collapse in housing prices has set off a chain reaction: Lenders are tightening their standards, borrowers are having a harder time refinancing loans and the securities that underpin them are in jeopardy.
This has resulted in more than $500 billion of potentially worthless paper on the balance sheets of the biggest global banks _ losses that could spill into the huge pension and mutual funds that also invest in these securities and that the average worker or investor expects to depend on.
There's more pain left for Wall Street: "We're nowhere close to the end of the collapse," said Mark Patterson, chairman and co-founder of MatlinPatterson Global Advisors, a hedge fund that specializes in distressed funds.
"I just assumed banks could stomach these kind of losses," said Wendy Talbot, an advertising executive when asked about the subprime crisis outside of a Charles Schwab branch in New York. "I guess you don't really pay attention to things until your forced to. ... You put out of your mind the worst things that can happen."
The subprime wreckage could dwarf the nation's last big banking crisis _ the failure of more than 1,000 savings and loans in the 1980s. The biggest difference is that problems with S&Ls were largely contained, and the government was able to rescue them through a $125 billion bailout.
But this situation is far more widespread, which some experts say makes it more difficult to rein in.
"What really makes this a doomsday scenario is where would you even start with a bailout?" housing consultant Lawler asked.
Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., a key member of Senate finance and banking committees, said borrowers are the ones who need relief. The playbook to bail out the economy would not be applied to the banks and mortgage originators, but money could be funneled through non-profit organizations to homeowners that need help, he said in an interview with The Associated Press.
"There is a worst-case scenario because housing is the linchpin of our economy, and more foreclosures make prices go down, that creates more foreclosures, and creates a vicious cycle," Schumer said. "You add that to the other weakness in the economy _ on one end is the home sector and the other is the financial sector _ and it could create a real problem."
He also believes Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke should do more to help the economy. Bernanke said in recent comments he has no direct plans to bail out the mortgage industry, but to instead offer relief through cheap interest rates and further liquidity injections into the banking system.
There's also been talk of letting government-backed lenders like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy mortgages of as much as $1 million from lenders, pay the government a fee for guaranteeing them and then turn them into securities to be sold to investors. This would extend the government's support, and its exposure, to the mortgage market to help alleviate stress.
Either way, the impact of a fresh round of subprime losses remains of paramount concern to economists _ especially since there's little certainty about how it would ripple through the U.S. economy.
"We all know that more hits from these subprime loans are coming, but are having a devil of a time figuring out how it will happen or how to stop it," said Lawler, who was once chief economist for Fannie Mae.
"We've never been in this situation before."
Copyright 2007 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Optionen
U.S. Sales Rose 8.3% Day After Thanksgiving, ShopperTrak Says
By Mary Jane Credeur and Kelly Riddell
Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumers spent $10.3 billion on holiday purchases yesterday, an 8.3 percent increase from last year, after retailers promoted electronics and toys to woo shoppers.
Consumers remained resilient and proved they were willing to spend even with oil prices rising and other economic pressures, ShopperTrak RCT Corp. said today in a statement. The day after Thanksgiving, dubbed Black Friday, typically accounts for between 4.5 percent and 5 percent of all holiday sales, the company said.
Holiday sales will increase 3.6 percent this year, the Chicago-based research firm estimates, trailing a 4.8 percent gain last year. Retailers have responded to the anticipated drop by offering discounts on flat-panel TVs and diamond necklaces to lure shoppers.
``It's an extraordinary number, beyond what we anticipated,'' Bill Martin, co-founder of ShopperTrak, said in an interview.
``I think there was pent-up demand given the slow sales in October and November because of unseasonably warm weather, and people want to find value for their dollar and reacted to the specials.''
ShopperTrak estimates customer visits to stores will drop 2.5 percent this holiday season, which covers the 32 days between Thanksgiving Day and Christmas.
Seeking Bargains
Sales in November and December may rise 4 percent, the slowest gain since 2002, according to the National Retail Federation in Washington. About 55 percent of shoppers said they will spend less this year than in 2006, according to a Discover Financial Services survey.
Consumers flocked to Toys ``R'' Us Inc., Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Macy's Inc. and other retailers in the pre-dawn hours yesterday to find bargains on Nintendo Wii game consoles and sterling-silver jewelry.
The day after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday is called Black Friday because at one time it was considered the day retailers turned profitable for the year.
Kenyata Luckey, a 22-year-old waitress, is spending about $300 this year, half the amount she spent last year, because ``there aren't as many good deals'' at Target Corp. and Wal- Mart.
She bought remote-control cars, a Big Wheel bike and stocking stuffers for her son, niece and nephew at an Atlanta Target store at 7:30 a.m. yesterday. A talking-doll set she wanted cost $50, and wasn't on sale, so she didn't buy it.
``There are sales, but not on the stuff I wanted,'' Luckey said.
Howard Davidowitz, chairman of Davidowitz & Associates Inc., a New York-based retail consulting firm, says the best deals are ``yet to come.''
``You've got to move product,'' Davidowitz said yesterday. ``And retailers are on a terrible sales trend, so there is no choice but to sell the inventory at what you can sell it at.''
ShopperTrak measures foot traffic in shopping centers and malls using more than 45,000 video devices.
To contact the reporter on this story: Mary Jane Credeur in Atlanta at mcredeur@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: November 24, 2007 17:38 EST
|
Commercial property faces worst year since early 1990s - reportAFX| 25 Nov 2007 | 10:13 AM ET
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The commercial property market is facing its worst year since it crashed in the early 1990s, the Sunday Times reported, citing a new survey by forecasters that includes CB Richard Ellis, the world's biggest property consultant. The firm predicts that returns will plunge to almost zero by the end of this year, according to the article.
The plummeting returns - down from 18.1 pct last year - follow a steep correction in commercial property that has wiped an estimated 14 bln stg off the value of the 350 bln stg investment market between July and October. It is likely that values will drop further between now and the end of December, the newspaper added. The news will cast a further pall over the sector, which has suffered a rapid shift in sentiment since this summer's credit crunch. The economists also caution that rental growth may slow because fewer companies will want to rent space. They forecast that glitzy offices in the City and out-of-town retail warehouses will be the worst affected sectors.
tf.TFN-Europe_newsdesk@thomson.com ml/ro COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Financial News Limited 2007. All rights reserved.
The copying, republication or redistribution of Thomson Financial News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Financial News.
Die Angst vor dem Absturz
Von Edward Hadas
Normalerweise läge der Gedanke an eine Rezession in den USA in weiter Ferne. Schließlich wird der wichtigste Bestandteil der in dieser Woche zur Veröffentlichung anstehenden Konjunkturdaten die Revision der Wachstumsrate des US-Bruttoinlandsprodukts im dritten Quartal sein. Sie wird wahrscheinlich revidiert bei fünf Prozent liegen und damit alles andere als auf eine Rezession hindeuten. Aber es sind keine normalen Zeiten. Sicher, die Welt der Wirtschaft sieht seit Ende September nur ein kleines bisschen düsterer aus. Die zusätzlichen Probleme – ein weiterer Rückgang auf dem US-Immobilienmarkt und schlechte Indikatoren für die Zuversicht der Marktteilnehmer in der EU und den USA – sind milde zu bewerten. Aber in der Finanzwelt sieht das schon ganz anders aus. Viele Schlüsselmärkte laufen schon wieder Gefahr, komplett einzufrieren – und die Wirtschaft mit sich in den Abgrund zu ziehen. Auf den Geldmärkten meint man, es wäre wieder August. Die Europäische Zentralbank hat wieder ihre Absicht erklärt, ausreichend Liquidität in den Markt zu geben, um die Interbanken-Spreads auf ein beherrschbares Niveau herunterzudrücken. In den vergangenen zwei Wochen ist ein maßgeblicher Indikator für die kurzfristige Liquidität, die Spanne zwischen dem dreimonatigen Interbanken-Satz und den Tagesgeldzinsen, in der Eurozone von 50 auf 80 Basispunkte gestiegen. Auf einigen anderen Märkten ist es sogar noch schlimmer als im August. Die vergangene Woche war gekennzeichnet von der ersten Ankündigung einer großen Notfallkapitalerhöhung durch den US-Hypothekenfinanzierer Freddie Mac und von der praktischen Stilllegung des europäischen Marktes für Covered Bonds, einer Variante des deutschen Pfandsbriefs, über 1,7 Bill. Dollar. Die Zentralbanken versuchen zu helfen – die EZB mit Liquidität und die Federal Reserve sowohl mit Liquidität als auch mit niedrigeren Zinsen – der Satz für Tagesgeld ist von 5,25 Prozent auf 4,5 Prozent gesunken. Aber der Markt schreit nach mehr. Die Banken brauchen billiges Geld, um ihren großen Vorrat an unerwünschten und unsicheren Vermögenswerten zu finanzieren. HSBC hat beispielsweise Mittel über 45 Mrd. Dollar im Zusammenhang mit Investmentvehikeln für strukturierte Produkte in der Bilanz. Es ist nicht klar, ob selbst die großzügigste Geldpolitik in der Lage sein wird, die Verluste aus der spekulativen Zeit der übergroßen Kreditvergabe auszugleichen – die Schätzungen belaufen sich auf 400 Mrd. Dollar bei steigender Tendenz. Diese Ausfälle schlagen sich vorwiegend in den Bilanzen der Banken nieder, dem Herzen des Finanzsystems. Klar ist dagegen, dass die Notenbanken einen der grundlegenden Lehrsätze des ehemaligen Fed-Chairman Alan Greenspan überdenken müssen: Dass es besser ist, wenn die Spekulationsblasen von selbst platzen. Das Chaos nach dem Knall stellt sich nämlich als äußerst heikel heraus. For further commentary see:
Vor einigen Monaten -als Hochmut noch hoffähig war- hätte man diese Finanzspritze wohl noch abgelehnt. Begründung:Strategische Branche, Auslandskapital unerwünscht. Flexibel waren die Amerikaner ja schon immer, unsere französischen Nachbarn wären zu stolz gewesen. Siemens durfte -selbst bei der beinahe Pleite von Alstom- nicht in Frankreich investieren. Als Hoechst und RP fusuonierten mußte ein Hedquater auf jeden Fall auf der französischen Seiten stehen, das Gerücht vom Interesse Pepsico´s an Danone löste fast Panikreaktionen in Paris hervor. So ist das eben die einen sind flexibel (US/GB) und die anderer sind Protektionisten -wobei das wohl auf alle ein wenig zutrifft. Gruß Permanent HANDELSBLATT, Dienstag, 27. November 2007, 07:38 Uhr | |||
Starker Yen belastet zusätzlichFrische Milliarden vom Golf in die Citi  Sorgen über Ausfälle bei Hypothekenkrediten hatten die Märkte in den USA belastet. Am Dienstag gab auch der Nikkei-Index nach. Foto: dpa |
|
China Refiners to Up Supply of DieselBy ELAINE KURTENBACH updated 1:58 a.m. ET Nov. 27, 2007By ELAINE KURTENBACHAP Business WriterThe Associated Pressupdated 1:58 a.m. ET Nov. 27, 2007
SHANGHAI, China - China's economic planning agency said Tuesday it has ordered the country's biggest oil refiners to ensure adequate supplies to regions hardest hit by fuel shortages, saying it expects the crisis to end soon.
Top leaders ordered state-owned China Petrochemical Corp., or Sinopec, and China National Petroleum Corp. on Nov. 24 to make every effort to ensure adequate supplies, especially in big cities, along key expressways and throughout regions where industrial production has been affected by fuel shortages, the National Development and Reform Commission said in a notice on its Web site.
The companies have also been instructed to cooperate with independent refiners in supplying crude oil and buying oil products, it said.
Refiners were told as well to reduce use of crude oil for petrochemicals and instead increase production of fuel.
The NDRC's decision to spell out the wide range of measures taken suggests the problem is widespread enough to have caused alarm at the highest levels.
An almost 10 percent rise in the price of diesel and gasoline on Nov. 1 helped ease the pinch, but fuel is still so scarce in some areas that filling stations continue to ration supplies. In some cases, truckers, bus drivers and others have to wait for hours to tank up.
Both the NDRC and the Commerce Ministry have issued notices ordering crackdowns on price gouging, stockpiling and other abuses.
The notice said CNPC, parent company of PetroChina, had shipped 20,000 tons of diesel to Yunnan, in the southwest, while Sinopec had boosted supplies by 27 percent.
The areas worst affected by shortages include sugar-producing regions in Yunnan and neighboring Guangxi, in the south, and east China's Zhejiang, which borders Shanghai, it said.
"Following these measures, the oil products supply market should very quickly return to normal," it said.
China's efforts to ease its fuel crunch have shaken regional markets.
The Asian spot market was rocked when Sinopec and PetroChina secured a three-year high of about 1 million tons (7.3 million barrels) of diesel for November-December delivery, according to Dow Jones Newswires.
Copyright 2007 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
wird die Märkte heute mindetens bis zum Verbrauchervertrauen positiv aussehen lassen;
mal sehen, ob sich das für die Araber lohnen wird oder ob man besser noch etwas gewartet hätte; aber man sieht, es gibt noch reichlich Kapital auf der Welt und nicht nur in den Devisenreserven der Chinesen und Japaner; neben den Arabern könnten demnächst auch die Russen vereinzelt als Käufer auftreten;
Optionen
hat Ian-Martin Feddersen (http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/) gefunden im Jahresbericht 2006 der Citibank:
the positive difference reflecting our return of cash to shareholders
through our $7 billion stock buyback in 2006.
und das war bei Kursen zwischen 50 und 60; so sieht das aus, wenn die operating earnings beschissen sind und der CEO nach ROEq gebonust wird. Dann bedeutet Aktienrückkauf nämlich Reduktion von Eq und RoEq geht nach oben; daß das Risiko steigt interessiert erstmal keine alte Sau.
Optionen
| HANDELSBLATT, Dienstag, 27. November 2007, 13:37 Uhr |
Angst vor BedrohungChinas Staatsfonds nimmt Japans Firmen ins VisierVon Finn Mayer-Kuckuk |
ein Engagement der Dubai International Capital in die eigene schwächelnde Aktie – der Investor ist der Hofvermögensverwalter des Emirs von Dubai. Die Ölgesellschaft Cosmo warb kürzlich aggressiv um Investitionen des Staatsfonds der Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate und feierte dessen Erwerb eines Fünftels der Aktien als Erfolg. |
Home Foreclosures Surge in OctoberHOME FORECLOSURES, MORTGAGES, HOUSING CRISIS, HOUSING MARKET, LOAN DEFAULTSBy ReutersReuters| 29 Nov 2007 | 05:40 AM ET
U.S. home foreclosure filings in October edged up 2 percent from September but at 224,451 were a whopping 94 percent higher than a year earlier, real estate data firm RealtyTrac said Thursday.
The figure, a sum of default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions, was down from a 32-month peak in August however, RealtyTrac, an online market of foreclosure of properties, said in its monthly foreclosure market report.
RealtyTrac said the national foreclosure rate was one filing for every 555 U.S. households in October.
"Overall foreclosure activity continues to register at a high level compared to last year but it appears to have leveled off over the past two months after hitting a high for the year in August," James Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac, said in a statement.
In September, home foreclosure filings fell 8 percent.
Default Rates Jumped
Default rates in the subprime segment of the U.S. mortgage market, which caters to borrowers with poor credit histories, have jumped this year as the housing industry slowed and prices fell in many regions, particularly areas that benefited the most during the housing market's boom from 2000 to 2005.
"Default notices were down nearly 9 percent in October, indicating that some of the efforts on the part of homeowners, lenders and advocacy groups to find alternatives to foreclosure may be starting to have an impact," Saccacio said.
"On the other hand, bank repossessions were up nearly 35 percent, evidence that more homeowners who enter foreclosure are losing their homes," he added.
Nevada, once one of the hottest real estate markets and a favorite among investors, led the nation with one foreclosure filing for every 154 households, 3.6 times the national average. Its 6,618 filings were up 20 percent from September and were nearly triple those reported in October 2006.
California foreclosure activity fell nearly 2 percent from the previous month, but its rate of one filing for every 258 households still ranked the second-highest in the nation.
California's reported foreclosure filings totaled 50,401, more than triple the number reported in October 2006.
Florida's rate of one foreclosure filing for every 273 households ranks it third-highest. Its 30,190 filings in October were down more than 9 percent from September but still up nearly 165 percent from a year earlier.
Ohio, Georgia, Michigan, Colorado, Arizona, Indiana and Illinois were other states with foreclosure rates ranking among the country's 10 highest.
Copyright 2007 Reuters. Click for restrictions.
|
BoE offers cash strapped money markets 10 bln stg for five weeks UPDATEAFX| 29 Nov 2007 | 06:02 AM ET
(adds background) LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The Bank of England has announced it is to offer emergency funds with longer-than normal repayment terms to help alleviate conditions in the tight money markets and says it is prepared to take further steps to keep overnight rates in line with the Bank Rate.
The BOE is holding a round of fixed rate operations today, offering funds at the bank rate of 5.75 pct until next Thursday in a standard operation. Then next Thursday the BoE says it will conduct an open market operation offering 10 bln stg worth of funds at the Bank Rate with a maturity rating of five weeks. This is believed to be the first time funds have been offered with a maturity length as long as five weeks, with open market operations usually offering funds for just one week. The BoE said it is conducting the operation as money market conditions tend to be particularly tight at the end the year, and this will "provide greater assurance to banks in managing their liquidity positions over that period". The Bank added it "stands ready to take further measures to keep overnight rates in line with Bank Rate". The current interbank overnight rate is currently 5.83 pct compared to the base rate of 5.75 pct. The three month interbank rate now stands at 6.59 pct.
rachel.armstrong@thomson.com rar/rfw/rar/rfw COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Financial News Limited 2007. All rights reserved.
The copying, republication or redistribution of Thomson Financial News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Financial News.
http://www.handelsblatt.com/News/Unternehmen/...-fass-ohne-boden.html
Die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Rezession steigt unaufhörlich. In Posting 1 kann man dieses sehr schön am Nickel Chart ablesen. Die erwartete Nachfrage sinkt aufgrund von schlechteren Wirtschaftsaussichten und zieht den Preis nach unten.
Öl ist in den letzten Tagen ebenfalls zurückgekommen, heute aufgrund einer Pipelineexplosion in Kanada allerdings wieder stark gestiegen. Dazu im nächsten Posting.
Permanent
|
Oil Jumps Over $2 on Canada-US Pipeline BlastOIL & GAS, COMMODITIES, FUTURES, ENERGY, U.S. CRUDE, BRENTBy ReutersReuters| 29 Nov 2007 | 07:38 AM ET
Oil surged more than $2 a barrel on Thursday after an explosion on a major pipeline cut crude oil imports to top consumer the United States by nearly a fifth.
U.S. light, sweet crude for January delivery jumped, off a session high of $95.17. London Brent crude rose.
An explosion hit a main pipeline that supplies Canadian crude to U.S. Midwest refineries on Wednesday, forcing operator Enbridge to shut down four of its main pipelines.
The pipelines carry an estimated 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd) of Canadian crude to the United States, a fifth of U.S. imports.
"This is a fast reaction to the accident, and it will be good news for bull players," said Tetsu Emori of Astmax Futures.
"Oil prices may rise further if the accident is proven as a big supply disruption."
One of the set of four pipelines will require repairs and regulator inspections, while the largest is "not likely" to start up soon, an Enbridge spokesman said.
US Inventories Pressure
The incident more than offset the impact of a smaller-than-expected drop in U.S. crude and distillate stockpiles, that had eased supply concerns and pushed prices into the biggest decline since Aug. 6.
But traders said expectations the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries might increase output when it meets on Dec. 5 in Abu Dhabi might drive down prices.
A Reuters poll of 21 banks, funds, consultants and traders showed a majority expecting OPEC to increase output by at least 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) when it meets.
Top OPEC Gulf officials have expressed concern about oil's record run, but insist supplies are sufficient and do not support prices near $100.
Copyright 2007 Reuters. Click for restrictions.
Immer wenn beim Öl die charttechnische Wende droht, holen die Jungs das Feuerzeug raus. Kann man eleganter mit Futures machen, ist mit Feuer aber medienwirksamer. Denn das unterstreicht - umhüllt von schwarzen Schwaden - die Botschaft, dass der rare Stoff immer knapper wird.
Du bist schon ein guter Kollege, immer wieder ein Spaß deine Beiträge zu lesen- aber oft ist mehr Wahres dran als man auf den ersten Blick denken mag...
Mit freundl. Grüßen TraderonTour