SCHWER-Gewichte in SILBER

TOKYO (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan unleashed the world's most intense burst of monetary stimulus on Thursday, promising to inject about $1.4 trillion into the economy in less than two years, a radical gamble that sent the yen reeling and bond yields to record lows.

New Governor Haruhiko Kuroda committed the BOJ to open-ended asset buying and said the monetary base would nearly double to 270 trillion yen ($2.9 trillion) by the end of 2014, a dose of shock therapy officials hope will end two decades of stagnation.

The policy was viewed as a radical gamble to boost growth and lift inflation expectations and is unmatched in scope even by the U.S. Federal Reserve's own quantitative easing program.

The Fed may buy more debt, but since Japan's economy is about one-third the size of the economy, Kuroda's plan looks even bolder.

"This is an unprecedented degree of monetary easing," a smiling Kuroda told a news conference after his first policy meeting at the helm of the central bank.
undsoweiter:
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE93216U20130404?irpc=932

AUCH:
http://www.zerohedge.com/print/472440  

 

 

 

Here I aim to identify a major turning point in silver. By definition, if correct, then the bears would not have their technical breakdown, while the bulls would avoid their emotional one. Inflation and war, whether financial or military, are the most defining fundamental elements as regards why to own precious metals. The single largest fundamental argument in the world right now, among all those that exist for buying precious metals, is, very simply, the will (known as "currency war") to transfer wealth from other countries to one's own.

Monetary Policy

Bernanke is not so dumb as to believe that "QE" can affect the unemployment rate. However, the media and investors are certainly silly enough to call him an idiot for believing so. But he doesn't.

It's all about wealth transference!

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will introduce "quantitative and qualitative monetary easing," increasing purchases of Japanese government bonds to "about 50 trillion Yen" ($530 billion) per year, sucking up all maturities, as opposed to being limited to those that are three-year-from-maturity, as has been the case to-date.

Kyle Bass has quickly pointed out that the Japanese are therefore buying bonds at three-quarters the level of the U.S., while having an economy one-third as large. Meanwhile, British debt has attained to a level of nearly 1.4 TRILLION Pounds (the Brits have doubled their debt since the 2007-2008 crisis). As for the Japanese, their grandiose style was manifested, as always, when it was no longer expected.

I had believed that the Japanese would be the last to print in size, to rationalize the mega-bazooka that they would fire to start writing off debt. They have more than begun, and, as in all wars, their actions have opened the door to retaliation to the retaliation, with everyone in the world blaming the others for the escalation.

Propaganda aside, precious metals come out on top, regardless of the political truth. Looking at silver and gold in Yen clarifies the explosiveness with which the Dollar-denominated precious metals bears are playing. The PMs presently (in Dollars) look the way they did in Yen, for instance, only very recently. Bears, be afraid. Be very afraid. Bernanke is the face of U.S. retaliation.

I write here of the U.S. what I had forecasted of Japan: they will retaliate soon. Bet on it, and don't listen to what central bankers say. I again warn: follow what they do. So, taken together, the Dollar should look worse as we head into the heart of summer. However, this is not just a play on what currency in which to own silver or gold. Not at all. The Dollar reversal will allow Dollar-denominated owners to share in what others in the world have enjoyed, but the windfall gains will come when the marketplace recognizes that the global printing is as unending as it is massive beyond calculation.

Specifically, the catalyst to the windfall gains will be the identification of global QE as the spark to inflation, which is finally building, as economies are not producing what is being consumed. This relatively soon, and compounded but not dependent upon a Dollar reversal. The collapse in the Yen that resulted from the BoJ's stunning monetary policy enhancement is a re-visitation of the low. Meanwhile, the euro reversed on the back of well-established bullish momentum divergences, as that trade became a bit too crowded too fast.

Many did learn to not listen to what the bankers said previously, but, rather, followed the trend of central bankers' actions. So, the Yen's decline from its peak discounted some of this "enhancement," so the new lows will perhaps not be as far away as many might be thinking. The preceding makes the basic point that the bankers take turns outdoing each other, again, to transfer wealth and write off debt. Follow the money. This is a balance sheet story, and not one that is principally trade-related (income statement).

War, What is it Good for, if Not Precious Metals?

What if Korea or the Middle East did become seriously problematic, would the PMs decline because the Dollar is a safe haven? The financial relationships have been breaking down because the Dollar is not rallying, whereas other currencies are merely falling; a grand scale currency war is a new phenomenon.

History shows that the sequence of global decline in the economy at the end of the Long (Kondratieff) Economic Cycle is: financial (2008), economic (2013?), and political/military (2017?). So, I do not believe that problems in Korea or the Middle East will accelerate now. Later, somewhere, definitely....  

"Bernanke is not so dumb as to BELIEVE that 'QE' can affect the unemployment rate", obwohl er diesen Unfug selber mehrmals angedeutet hat, wenn auch irgendwie etwas verschämt wie hinter vorgehaltener Hand...

Was aber machen Leute, die ANDERE etwas glauben machen wollen, was sie SELBER
wegen offenkundigen Unfugs nicht laut aussprechen wollen?

Sie freuen sich über jeden Idioten, der diesen undankbaren Job für sie erledigt; siehe:
==>  "Argumente" für die Geld-Druckerey...

LG: Teras.  

manchmal sickert doch ein funke wahrheit durch:
Mr Bernanke, who has ushered in an era of record low interest rates and aggressive quantitative easing at the US Federal Reserve in a bid to spur growth, said on Monday that the economy still has far to go to recover to an acceptable state of health.  

FOMC Minutes Released Early, Several FOMC Members Saw QE Tapering, Halt By Year End

By Tyler Durden
Created 04/10/2013 - 09:07
[1]
Submitted by Tyler Durden [1] on 04/10/2013 09:07 -0400

Federal Reserve [2] Market Conditions [3] Monetary Policy [4]

Highlights from the pre-leaked minutes, which are along the lines of previous releases, in which there is a hint of an early QE tapering and halt by year end. Here is the key excerpt:

In light of the current review of benefits and costs, one member judged that the pace of purchases should ideally be slowed immediately. A few members felt that the risks and costs of purchases, along with the improved outlook since last fall, would likely make a reduction in the pace of purchases appropriate around midyear, with purchases ending later this year. Several others thought that if the outlook for labor market conditions improved as anticipated, it would probably be appropriate to slow purchases later in the year and to stop them by year-end. Two members indicated that purchases might well continue at the current pace at least through the end of the year.

Algos unsure if this means QE may be ending. The answer, of course, is no. But the Fed is doing everything to gauge market impact to increasingly more ominous and harsh language.

Pre: 10Y 1.779%, EUR 1.3070, ES 1565.5, Oil $93.69. Gold 1578

Some other highlights:

On Fed credibility: "Some participants were concerned that a substantial decline in remittances might lead to an adverse public reaction or potentially undermine Federal Reserve credibility or effectiveness."

On inflation: "...a few participants noted that the risk remained that inflationary pressures could rise as the expansion continued, especially if monetary policy remained highly accommodative for too long."

On QE: "...Asset purchases were seen by some as having a potential to contribute to imbalances in financial markets and asset prices, which could undermine financial stability over time."

On QE Tapering: "Many participants, including some of those who were focused on the increasing risks, expressed the view that continued solid improvement in the outlook for the labor market could prompt the Committee to slow the pace of purchases beginning at some point over the next several meetings," ... "Several others thought that if the outlook for labor market conditions improved as anticipated, it would probably be appropriate to slow purchases later in the year and to stop them by year-end."

Esther L. George. dissent: "the current stance of policy could lead to financial imbalances, a mispricing of risk, and, over time, higher longterm inflation expectations... asset purchases were providing relatively small benefits, and, given the risks that they posed as well as the improvement in the outlook for the labor market, she thought they should be wound down.  

 

"I expect, however, that by the time of the elections, Germany will also be in recession."  

ob ABC korrektur bei silber nun final nach unten hin bereinigt und den zyklus abschliesend beendet  oder die starke unterstützung bei 26.28 ein (vor-)letztes mal getestet oder ob 500 tonnen "paper gold" zw. 15.30 und 18.00 am markt geworfen wurden, ob goldman sachs die em-kursziele 2013 senkt, eigenen clients wüste finanzprodukte empfiehlt um selbst schwer in edelmetalle zu investieren...china als vormals grösster gold- & silverexporteur nun millionen tonnen gold&silver importiert und mit billionen von $devisenreserven finanziert..russland vergleichbar agiert...japan/boj pffhhhh...manipulierte us arbeitslosenzahlen die sich verdoppeln, fed lanciert baldiges ende von QE aufgrund us wirtschaftsaufschwung (!!) während pensionfonds beschnitten werden...und bankkunden in eurozone für spekulationen haftbar gemacht werden (das sparbuch wie wir es kannten ist abgeschafft, kunden gewähren mit ihrer einlage einen kredit, haften für bankenzocks mit derer fantasyproducts..."ihr wollt doch zinsen?")...ahja, eurozone...und who's next? irland? slowenien? spanien? italien? oder gar frankreich? nur gut das südamerika zu weit entfernt liegt ;) uk und derer boe nicht dazugehört...oder doch?
fiat bugs watch out!

Remember the financial crisis? Look at the charts of financial stocks. They were fine for many years and then fell off a cliff within a year. There were people who, in the middle of 2008 thought we weren’t even going to have a recession! Most never learn.  

Cyprus said that a sale of its gold reserves was among the options for its contribution towards an international bailout, but ultimate responsibility rested with its central bank. Because of this, euro zone nations such as Italy and Portugal could come under pressure to put their bullion reserves to work. Today’s graphic looks at gold reserves as a percentage of debt and GDP for some of the world’s largest economies.

http://blog.thomsonreuters.com/index.php/...erves-graphic-of-the-day/  

Schon etwas älter:  

that show how U.S. growth will wither
The stock-market bulls refuse to see them, but there are plenty of warning signs that augur poorly for the U.S. economy and for the markets. We’re headed for our third $10 trillion stock crash of this young century.  

der austrian school of economics sind in dieser phase immer wieder in erinnerung zu rufen, dein link vielleicht "älter" aber aktueller denn je.
hier ein lagebericht eines anonymen insiders:
http://www.rottmeyer.de/der-neue-porsche-tpr-ist-da/

credit crunch und silber:
http://m.silverseek.com/article/...cious-metal-price-correction-10906

und zu fear and panic for the weak hands was positives:  

Assault On Gold Update


Paul Craig Roberts
Prison Planet.com
April 14, 2013

"I was the first to point out that the Federal Reserve was rigging all markets, not merely bond prices and interest rates, and that the Fed is rigging the bullion market in order to protect the US dollar’s exchange value, which is threatened by the Fed’s quantitative easing. With the Fed adding to the supply of dollars faster than the demand for dollars is increasing, the price or exchange value of the dollar is set up to fall.

A fall in the dollar’s exchange rate would push up import prices and, thereby, domestic inflation, and the Fed would lose control over interest rates. The bond market would collapse and with it the values of debt-related derivatives on the “banks too big too fail” balance sheets. The financial system would be in turmoil, and panic would reign.

Rapidly rising bullion prices were an indication of loss of confidence in the dollar and were signaling a drop in the dollar’s exchange rate. The Fed used naked shorts in the paper gold market to offset the price effect of a rising demand for bullion possession. Short sales that drive down the price trigger stop-loss orders that automatically lead to individual sales of bullion holdings once their loss limits are reached.

According to Andrew Maguire, on Friday, April 12, the Fed’s agents hit the market with 500 tons of naked shorts. Normally, a short is when an investor thinks the price of a stock or commodity is going to fall. He wants to sell the item in advance of the fall, pocket the money, and then buy the item back after it falls in price, thus making money on the short sale. If he doesn’t have the item, he borrows it from someone who does, putting up cash collateral equal to the current market price. Then he sells the item, waits for it to fall in price, buys it back at the lower price and returns it to the owner who returns his collateral. If enough shorts are sold, the result can be to drive down the market price.

A naked short is when the short seller does not have or borrow the item that he shorts, but sells shorts regardless. In the paper gold market, the participants are betting on gold prices and are content with the monetary payment. Therefore, generally, as participants are not interested in taking delivery of the gold, naked shorts do not need to be covered with the physical metal.

In other words, with naked shorts, no physical metal is actually sold.

People ask me how I know that the Fed is rigging the bullion price and seem surprised that anyone would think the Fed and its bullion bank agents would do such a thing, despite the public knowledge that the Fed is rigging the bond market and the banks with the Fed’s knowledge rigged the Libor rate. The answer is that the circumstantial evidence is powerful.

Consider the 500 tons of paper gold sold on Friday. Begin with the question, how many ounces is 500 tons? There are 2,000 pounds to one ton. 500 tons equal 1,000,000 pounds. There are 16 ounces to one pound, which comes to 16 million ounces of short sales on Friday.

Who has 16 million ounces of gold? At the beginning gold price that day of about $1,550, that comes to $24,800,000,000. Who has that kind of money?

What happens when 500 tons of gold sales are dumped on the market at one time or on one day? Correct, it drives the price down. Investors who want to get out of large positions would spread sales out over time so as not to lower their sales proceeds. The sale took gold down by about $73 per ounce. That means the seller or sellers lost up to $73 dollars 16 million times, or $1,168,000,000.

Who can afford to lose that kind of money? Only a central bank that can print it.

I believe that the authorities would like to drive the gold price down further and will, if they can, hit the gold market twice more next week and put gold at $1,400 per ounce or lower. The successive declines could perhaps spook individual holders of physical gold and result in actual net sales of physical gold as people reduced their holdings of the metal.

However, bullion dealer Bill Haynes told kingworldnews.com that last Friday bullion purchasers among the public outpaced sellers by 50 to 1, and that the premiums over the spot price on gold and silver coins are the highest in decades. I myself checked with Gainesville Coins and was told that far more buyers than sellers had responded to the price drop.

Unless the authorities have the actual metal with which to back up the short selling, they could be met with demands for deliveries. Unable to cover the shorts with real metal, the scheme would be exposed.

Do the authorities have the metal with which to cover shorts? I do not know. However, knowledgeable dealers are suspicious. Some think that US physical stocks of gold were used up in sales in efforts to disrupt the rise in the gold price from $272 in December 2000 to $1,900 in 2011. They point to Germany’s recent request that the US return the German gold stored in the US, and to the US government’s reply that it would return the gold piecemeal over seven years. If the US has the gold, why not return it to Germany?

The clear implication is that the US cannot deliver the gold.

Andrew Maguire also reports that foreign central banks, especially China, are loading up on physical gold at the low prices made possible by the short selling. If central banks are using their dollar holdings to purchase bullion at bargain prices, the likely results will be pressure on the dollar’s exchange value and a declining market supply of physical bullion. In other words, by trying to protect the dollar from its quantitative easing policy, the Fed might be hastening the dollar’s demise.

Possibly the Fed fears a dollar crisis or derivative blowup is nearing and is trying to reset the gold/dollar price prior to the outbreak of trouble. If ill winds are forecast, the Fed might feel it is better positioned to deal with crisis if the price of bullion is lower and confidence in bullion as a refuge has been shaken.

In addition to short selling that is clearly intended to drive down the gold price, orchestration is also indicated by the advance announcements this month first from brokerage houses and then from Goldman Sachs that hedge funds and institutional investors would be selling their gold positions. The purpose of these announcements was to encourage individual investors to get out of gold before the big boys did. Does anyone believe that hedge funds and Wall Street would announce their sales in advance so the small fry can get out of gold at a higher price than they do?

If these advanced announcements are not orchestration, what are they?

I see the orchestrated effort to suppress the price of gold and silver as a sign that the authorities are frightened that trouble is brewing that they cannot control unless there is strong confidence in the dollar. Otherwise, what is the point of the heavy short selling and orchestrated announcements of gold sales in advance of the sales?"

Dr. Paul Craig Roberts is the father of Reaganomics and the former head of policy at the Department of Treasury. He is a columnist and was previously the editor of the Wall Street Journal. His latest book, “How the Economy Was Lost: The War of the Worlds,” details why America is disintegrating.


This article was posted: Sunday, April 14, 2013 at 5:16 am
Paul Craig Roberts
Prison Planet.com  

... aber aus Gründen der Vorsicht noch nicht sehr viel.
Die bekannten Manipulanten haben noch ein paar Pfeile im Köcher...

LG: Teras.  

 

 

 

... wieder einmal nicht geklappt. - Immerhin ist wenigstens die ÜBERSCHRIFT des verlinkten Artikels eingefügt worden, wenn auch ZERHACKT:

Statt "Gold & Silver Forecast 2013: Like 1973, Dow's Decline To Bring Massive Gold Rally?" lesen wir "Gold & Silver Forecast 2013: Like 1973, Dow"...

Der Fehler ist bereits gemeldet, und zwar ab HIER:  
==>  "Auf Antwort von ariva.de wird gewartet"...  

Denn in der VORSCHAU sah das Ding ja noch SO aus:

(Angehängte Graphik: 2013-05-06-In-der-Vorschau-noch-correct.PNG).