RBS boden schon erreicht?

October 12, 2008

State to save HBOS and RBS

Government set to become biggest shareholder in top banks as Japanese weigh bid for Morgan StanleyJohn Waples and Iain Dey
THE government will launch the biggest rescue of Britain’s high-street banks tomorrow when the UK’s four biggest institutions ask for a £35 billion financial lifeline.

The unprecedented move will make the government the biggest shareholder in at least two banks.

Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), which has seen its market value fall to below £12 billion, is to ask ministers to underwrite a £15 billion cash call.

Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS), Britain’s biggest provider of mortgages, is seeking up to £10 billion.

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Lloyds TSB, which is in the process of acquiring HBOS in a rescue merger, wants £7 billion, while Barclays needs £3 billion.

The scale of the fundraising could lead to trading at the London stock market being suspended. This would give time for the market to digest the impact of the moves.

One consequence of the deal might be that Lloyds could renegotiate the terms of the HBOS takeover, although both sides are still keen for the merger to take place.

An economist who declined to be named said: “This is the biggest risk of the UK’s balance sheet ever undertaken. No-one knows the extent of the toxic assets these banks are exposed to.”

Separately, the future of Morgan Stanley, the American investment bank, is also in doubt today following a sharp sell-off of shares and warnings of a possible credit downgrade from Moody’s the ratings agency.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group is reviewing the terms of a $9 billion (£5.3 billion) capital injection into the bank and may launch a takeover. HSBC, Citigroup, JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank are also assessing the situation. Morgan Stanley’s market value has slumped to $13 billion.

The British bank rescue could leave the government owning 70% of HBOS and 50% of RBS. As a result it could take board seats at both companies and exercise control over future dividend payments.

Crisis talks were taking place this weekend between the Treasury, the Financial Services Authority, the Bank of England and heads of the four retail banks. As part of the fundraising it is likely that banks will also have to own up to future losses from their exposure to sub-prime mortgages and other financial instruments.

Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, has told the banks to ask for more than they need. This is to make sure that their capital position is strengthened sufficiently to absorb shocks and to withstand a long recession. Further capital is also available and the Treasury has increased the total amount to £75 billion.

It is thought all parties believe a co-ordinated rescue is the way forward. Final details will be thrashed out tonight.

The way in which the money will be raised has also been simplified. The government may have to underwrite an issue of ordinary shares. This would give pre-emption rights to existing investors, and those shares not taken up will be owned by the government. These could be placed in a new bank reconstruction fund that would hold them until conditions improve.

King had insisted on the recapitalisation of the banks as a condition for other elements of last week’s bailout package, including a doubling of the special liquidity scheme from £100 billion to £200 billion and a new £250 billion guarantee of bank lending.

The Bank of England has also increased the stress test required for banks to prove that they are in a strong capital position. This is called its “core capital ratio” and it has been boosted from six to nine.

Banking sources say the combined loss of capital of the banks as a result of the credit crisis was £150 billion but some of that has already been made up by earlier capital-raising exercises and some will not be needed because the banks will be more constrained in their future lending.

The Bank has also been pushing for early action by the banks on raising capital. “They say there’s no excuse for delay,” said one banking source. “We need to get on with it.” Banks concede that executives will lose their jobs. Among them, Goodwin and his chairman, Sir Tom McKillop.

In addition, Barclays is trying to raise about £3 billion from Middle Eastern sovereign-wealth funds, including the Qatar Investment Authority, as well as Asian investment houses, including Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation.

US Treasury secretary Hank Paulson gave a clear indication late on Friday that he would stand behind Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs to prevent another collapse on the scale of Lehman Brothers.Both banks were hard hit by last week’s historic stock-market sell-off. Morgan Stanley’s stock dropped almost 60% last week, while Goldman’s fell 29%.

Paulson’s assurances followed the G7’s plans to tackle the economic crisis. “We did not speak to any specific firm today. We spoke about firms that were important and firms that were important systemically,” he said. Questions over continuing liabilities stemming from the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual and the Icelandic banks continue to rumble through the markets.

An auction process on Friday night determined that the collapse of Lehman Brothers will cost providers of credit default swaps an estimated $233 billion payout — which has to be paid in the next two weeks..

While much of the exposure is expected to sit with AIG, the insurance giant that has been partially nationalised, a number of banks are thought to have issued insurance against bank collapses that will now be called upon. Pressure is mounting on the International Accounting Standards Board to abandon its “mark-to-market” accounting principles, which many believe has been one of the key factors in causing the credit crisis.

The rules insist that assets be held on a bank’s book at the most recently traded market price. As the markets took fright from exotic credit derivatives, the prices fell well below what is considered to be their true economic value — leading to bigger than expected paper losses being taken by the banks. As the markets have crashed, the problem has become ever more acute.

On Friday night, America’s chief accounting body, the Financial Accounting Standards Board, revealed that it would suspend the mark-to-market rules to take account of extreme market conditions. Institutions will be able to use their own estimates of an asset’s worth instead. The move follows pressure from the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

In a “position” statement, the board said: “In determining fair value for a financial asset, the use of a reporting entity’s own assumptions about future cash flows and appropriately risk-adjusted discount rates is acceptable when relevant observable inputs are not available.”

Questions also persist about the collapse of the Icelandic institutions, and the knock-on effects of their demise. It has emerged that the FSA told the London-based capital-markets business of Kaupthing to move some of its £20m cash pile out of a bank account held with its Icelandic parent company “several months” before the bank collapsed last week.

A senior source at Kaupthing Singer & Friedlander Capital Markets, run by former KBC Peel Hunt boss Tim Cockcroft, said the cash had been moved into four or five UK bank accounts following concerns raised by the regulator.

The news suggests the regulator may have been flagging concerns about Iceland to business customers while local councils and consumers continued to deposit cash with the banks.

A handful of Treasury officials have grown concerned about the potential for conflicts of interest emerging between the advisers working on the bailout deal and the financial implications.

For example, Goldman Sachs, which is advising Royal Bank of Scotland, also has large financial exposures to the bank.

There have been calls within the Treasury for an independent advisory boutique like Blackstone or Greenhill to be appointed to monitor conflicts of interest, but it is understood that these calls have gone unnoticed so far.

 

Goodwin in £10bn fight for survival


Troubled times: Sir Fred Goodwin is putting his future on the line

« Previous « PreviousNext » Next »View GalleryADVERTISEMENT Published Date: 12 October 2008
By Terry Murden
SIR Fred Goodwin, the chief executive of Royal Bank of Scotland, will put his future on the line this week in a bid to rescue the bank from a crisis that has seen £30bn wiped off its value in the past week alone.
RBS is seeking between £10bn and £12bn to shore up its battered balance sheet, according to analysts, and is expected to tap the Government's £25bn fund announced last week.

Goodwin is also expected to turn to existing shareholders in what one source described as a "part-market, part-Government" arrangement to secure the required capital.

With shareholder sentiment against the banks, this could prove tricky, but Goodwin is believed to have won some support for his plan.

Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, last week unveiled a package of measures designed to support the banking sector. Of the £400bn of new money, £25bn was made available to seven banks and one building society in the form of preference shares or permanent interest-bearing shares.

HSBC, Standard Chartered and Santander – which owns Abbey and is acquiring Alliance & Leicester and some of Bradford & Bingley's assets – said they would not issue new equity.

But Barclays, HBOS, Lloyds TSB and RBS as well as Nationwide Building Society are all expected to draw on the Government's funds. It is thought other building societies will ask for support.

RBS is the most exposed, with the lowest capital ratio – or reserves – and therefore the most in need of money. One of the key issues being hammered out this weekend is what mix of preference and ordinary shares it will require.

Preference shares do not count towards its core tier one ratio, the key measure of the bank's capital strength, and RBS already has a high level of these shares.

Therefore it will seek either ordinary shares from the Government or from other shareholders. But the effect of diluting the share base may weigh further on the share price, which closed on Friday at 71.7p, its lowest since May 1993.

RBS is weakened further because its management has been unpopular with the City since the closure of the deal to acquire Dutch bank ABN Amro, now seen to have been expensive. Without the support of the City, Goodwin and his chairman Sir Tom McKillop are facing an uphill battle to hang on to their jobs. There were calls in April for one or both to go after they tapped shareholders for £12bn in the biggest ever rights issue in Britain. Both were the subject of further feverish speculation last week.

RBS is expected to detail its funding request on Tuesday along with Barclays, which will ask the Government for about £5bn. It is thought Barclays attempted to raise funds from overseas sources that supported it last year, but the current malaise afflicting the banking sector is believed to have deterred foreign institutions from throwing more money at UK banks.

HBOS and Lloyds TSB, which are engaged in merger talks, are likely to request £5bn and £4bn respectively towards the end of this month.
 

die nachricht ist heute 9 uhr erschienen....bei L&S ist rbs gestiegen:

865142 ROYAL BANK OF SCTL 1.12 1.22  0.05 4.46% 13:10

die kapitalerhöhung ist damit am freitag schon eingepreist gewesen,ansonnsten währe der kurs ja nicht hochgegangen.

um Ministers, while not wishing to be accused of meddling, are sensitive about being seen to be handing over billions of pounds of taxpayers’ money to an organisation still headed by the man who led it to the brink of collapse. RBS needs about £10 billion to boost its capital strength to a level acceptable to the tripartite authorities, analysts estimate.

 

habe mal was nachgerechnet.der kurs von freitag war der pleitekurs!

rbs hat ein kgv von 1,7 und gibt 22% dividende,selbst wenn der staat zu 50% die bank übernimmt ergibt sich zum derzeitigen kurs dann ein kgv von 3,4 und 11% divi.....

da es sich dann jedoch um eine halbstaaliche bank handelt,wo der staat als großaktionär für alles bürgt sollte rbs mindestens so bewertet werden wie hsbc.

rbs sollte daher nach der teilverstaatlichung mindestens auf 2,50-3 euro steigen.

bestes beispiel ist die lbb berlin.  

wenn der satz oben stimmt siht es wirklich nicht so schlecht aus (auf deutsch: Einer der Wege ist derRegierung Vorzugsaktien zu verkufen,wobei ein Zinssatz von zwischen 9% und 12% liegt.
Das jedoch würde der Staat keine direkte Beteiligung in RBS bringen, was bedeutet, dass der Steuerzahler nicht in den Genuss von einer Erholung den RBS-Aktie in den kommenden Jahren komen würde.


"One of the avenues being explored is to sell the government preference shares, paying an interest rate of between 9% and 12%.
That, however, would give the state no direct equity stake in RBS, meaning taxpayers would not benefit from any recovery in the RBS share price over the coming years. "

**************************************************



RBS first in line for Treasury handout
Simon Duke, Daily Mail
Royal Bank of Scotland looks to be first in line to tap the government's £500bn bank rescue scheme, sources said.



The embattled bank is understood to be discussing an emergency cash injection of up to £10bn to shore up its battered balance sheet.

The move could leave the government in effective control of nearly 50% of the Edinburgh-based lender, depending on how the rescue is structured.

The part nationalisation could be confirmed as early as this Tuesday, according to City sources.

The speed of the RBS rescue plan underlines the depth of concern in official circles over the Edinburgh group's finances.

Fears that RBS (down 31p to 65p) could run out of cash if wholesale lending markets remain shut have wiped over £30bn off the bank's shares this week alone.

Since the credit crunch erupted last August its market value has plunged by some 90% to around £12bn.

The bank is currently locked in discussions with the Financial Services Authority, Treasury and Bank of England over the capital infusion.

The FSA has told RBS, along with the other banks that want to avail themselves of its bailout programme, to build much bigger capital cushions to absorb spiralling bad debt losses.

It is understood that the City watchdog will insist on equity tier one and tier one capital ratios - key measures of a bank's cash buffers - of 7% and 9% respectively.

RBS would need around £9bn-10bn to bring its equity tier one ratio up to the required level.

It has not yet been decided what form the capital injection will take.

One of the avenues being explored is to sell the government preference shares, paying an interest rate of between 9% and 12%.

That, however, would give the state no direct equity stake in RBS, meaning taxpayers would not benefit from any recovery in the RBS share price over the coming years.

The Treasury is thought to be pushing for interest-bearing notes that convert into equity at some point in the future.

The RBS deal is likely to open the floodgates for other lenders. HBOS could be next in the queue for a bailout, followed by Barclays and Lloyds TSB.

Jonathan Pierce at Credit Suisse believes Barclays (off 34½p to 207½p) and HBOS both need £5bn of fresh funding , while Lloyds will need £4bn to bolster its cash cushions.

Unless investors stump up, they face being squeezed out by the government, analysts warn.

Pierce said: 'The government will provide some of this funding but we believe there is a good chance that existing shareholders get involved.'

Michael Saunders, the respected Citigroup economists, yesterday warned that British banks are facing a £667bn funding gap.

Underlining the urgent need to re-capitalise the High Street banks, it is believed that the cash injections will come before agreements to curb executive pay and bonuses are reached.

That could prove highly controversial. The clamour is growing for the culture of million pound bonuses to be stamped out because it encourages excessive risk taking.

RBS boss Sir Fred Goodwin was paid £5.4m last year, much of which was a reward for ' masterminding' last year's £50bn takeover of Dutch bank ABN Amro.

Struck at the height of the credit bubble, the ABN deal is the primary reason RBS is being hammered so violently by the financial crisis.

The bank has lost billions on the deal already, forcing Goodwin to go cap in hand to his shareholders for £12bn in emergency capital this summer.

The fog of uncertainty enveloping Morgan Stanley darkened last night following another sharp plunge in its share price.

The Wall Street giant lost as much as 30% of its value after ratings agency Moodys threatened to downgrade the firm's credit rating.

The move intensified concerns over Morgan Stanley's reliance on wholesale lending markets, which have effectively shut down over the past month amid the gravest financial crisis since the Great Depression.

An emergency £5bn cash injection from Japan's Mitsubishi is now under grave threat because of the plunge in the Morgan Stanley share price this week.

 

ist das jetzt endlich die wende, frei  nach dem motto "wenn nicht jetzt, wann dann"?
.....das kann kommende woche ein richtiger rebound werden.
das erholungspotential aller bankenwerte ist extrem.

 

12.10.2008 16:06

Presse: Britischer Staat wird Großaktionär bei RBS und HBOS

Nach der Vorlage des Rettungspakets im Volumen von 500 Milliarden Pfund wird die britische Regierung schon am Montag nach Medienberichten Hauptanteilseigner zweier Großbanken. Die Royal Bank of Scotland (News/Aktienkurs) (RBS)   brauche im Tausch gegen Vorzugsaktien 15 Milliarden Pfund (19 Milliarden Euro) Steuergelder, die größte Hypothekenbank Halifax Bank of Scotland (News/Aktienkurs) (HBOS)   benötige 10 Milliarden Pfund frisches Kapital, wie die "Sunday Times" berichtete.

Unklar ist, inwiefern die Regierung künftig über den Aufsichtsrat Einfluss auf die betroffenen Banken nehmen wird. Finanzminister Alistair Darling hatte bei der Präsentation des Rettungspakets bestritten, dass der Staat die Kontrolle über die Banken übernehmen wolle. Das Rettungspaket sieht unter anderem den Einstieg des Staates bei den Banken im Tausch gegen Vorzugsaktien vor. Dafür stellt die Regierung 50 Milliarden Pfund Steuergelder zur Verfügung. Neben einer Geldspritze von 200 Milliarden Pfund der Notenbank verpflichtete sich der Staat ferner, mit 250 Milliarden Pfund für Leihgeschäfte zwischen den Banken geradezustehen.

Wie die "Sunday Times" weiter berichtete, würde die Großbank Lloyds TSB Group   ihre Kapitalausstattung mit Hilfe des Staats um 7 Milliarden Pfund erhöhen, die Bank Barclays   benötige 3 Milliarden Pfund./pf/DP/he

ISIN GB0007547838 GB0030587504 GB0008706128 GB0031348658

AXC0042 2008-10-12/16:05


rbs bekommt also 19 mrd euro ist aber an der börse nur noch 16 mrd wert - denoch habe Finanzminister Alistair Darling bestritten, dass der Staat die Kontrolle über die Banken übernehmen wolle.daher sollte der anteil des staates nicht über 49%liegen.

das ist sehr gut für uns aktionäre,da die verwässerung nun weniger stark ist als erwartet - der kurs sollten nun positiv darauf reagieren.  

Was ist das Hauptgebiet der Royal Bank of Scotland?
Weiß zufällig einer ob die ehr mehr Kredite vergeben oder eher mehr Kundeneinlagen anzulegen haben?

der crasch wird ausbleiben. und das ist gut so.
die banken werden wieder zulegen.
mein tipp:  rbs bis ende nächste woche min. 3 euro
die folgen für die realwirtschaft werden uns aber  noch lange begleiten.  

mit einem kursfeuerwerk bei den finanztiteln..
aber erstmal abwarten und dann nachlegen.

 

Seid Ihr Euch da so sicher ????????????

Etwas zum LESEN und NACHDENKEN !

http://www.ariva.de/BIsher_war_Crash_Beginnt_morgen_DAS_GRAUEN_t349613

Dann noch gutes Geschäft morgen .....  

aber der abschwung der realwirtschaft wird uns noch lange beschäftigen
der iwf, die g7 etc. haben  einen schutzschrim erarbeitet der die banken absichert. das wird die kurse der finanzwerte richtung norden treiben.
wenn nicht jetzt die kehrtwende, wann dann?
zeitversetzt wird sich sicherlich auch die wirtschaft erholen. aber die realwirtschft hat das tal noch lange nicht durchschritten. da wird es noch einige überraschungen geben.

 

denn bei diesen Verwerfungen hat niemand mehr den Überblick.

Das ist dass, was mich mittlerweile auch beunruhigt. Die Vielzahl an Problemen die akut sind, können einen durchaus durcheinander bringen.

Wie die ganze Sache ausgeht und weitergeht ist schwer abzusehen.

Gruß
Silvermoon  

habe nachgekauft für 89 cent.RBS ist nun gerettet,der ceo ist weg.auf lange sicht wird sich die RBS erholen.Aber das wird sehr lange dauern.  

so jetzt wissen wir`s alle die Bank wird vom Staat aufgefangen und der Chef nimmt jetzt seinen Hut.
Mit enormen Kursschwankungen ist nur noch in den nächsten Tagen zu rechnen dann dürfte allmählich  Ruhe einkehren.
 

nur eine gefahr besteht.die alten aktien werden entwertet.  

was soll der scheiss  

# 117 -  dann les doch mal die news . limi  

gibt es dazu news?    

tiefer gehts wohl nimmer....  

die Verstaatlichungs-Aktionen für die Bankaktien in GB und anderswo haben werden. Einige sind gestiegen, RBS ist deutlich gefallen. Meine Befürchtung ist, dass Bankaktien bei einer Komplettübernahme durch den Staat wertlos werden - wie die von Fannie und Freddie in USA. Wie es bei einer Teil-Verstaatlichung aussieht, steht offenbar in den Sternen. Solange es darüber keine klaren Aussagen gibt, werde ich die Fingern von Finanzaktien lassen, gibt womöglich Brandwunden.  

 

0,655  euro

komplettübernahme nee - das glaub ich nicht - wenn dann teilverstaatlichung !!!

aber warum jetzt noch -  aktien zu 0,66 pence wurde ja ausgegeben -  

wer sagt das Fannie und Freddie wertlos sind,dann schau dir mal den Kurs an.Die werden wieder vom Staat vernünftig aufgestellt.  

ist nichts anderes als eine Kapitalerhöhung und verwässert wie jede Kapitalerhöhung die Kurse. Ist der Umfang der Kapitalerhöhung entsprechend groß, ist die Verwässerung entsprechend groß, wie bei Fannie und Freddie. Klassische Verstaatlichungen wird es wahrscheinlich nicht geben. Mit jeder Kapitalspritze des Staates steigt dessen Mitspracherecht, weit über seinen Kapitalanteil hinaus. Wenn er dann mal 99,999% besitzt kann jeder ausrechnen, was die heutigen Aktien noch wert sind. Diese Mechanismen sind für die meisten Zocker zu komplex. Deshalb dauert es dann noch eine gehörige Zeit bis die Kurse den Boden gefunden haben. So konnte man über Wochenende mit deutschen Bank-Aktien schön abkassieren. Auf längere Sicht ist da eher kein Gewinn drinnen.