Quo Vadis Dax 2011-2012-2013 Bären-Thread

Europe's lost decade as $7 trillion loan crunch looms
Europe’s banks face a $7 trillion lending contraction to bring their balance sheets in line with the US and Japan, threatening to trap the region in a credit crunch and chronic depression for a decade.
The risk is "Japanisation" without the benefits of Japan: without a single government, or a trade super-surplus, or 1pc debt costs, or unique social cohesion.

Even today, the jobless rate for youth is near 10pc in Japan. It is already 46pc in Spain, 43pc in Greece, 32pc in Ireland, and 27pc in Italy. We will discover over time what yet more debt deleveraging will do to these societies.

Stephen Jen from SLJ Macro Partners says the loan to deposit (LTD) ratio of Europe’s lenders is 1.2, much like Japanese banks in the early 1990s at the onset of the country’s Lost Decade (now two decades).

How Europe allowed this to happen will no doubt be the subject of many enquiries. Suffice to say that it was an intellectual failure by everybody: lenders, economists, regulators and the European Central Bank. The ECB misread the implications of the global capital surplus in the middle of the last decade (like the Fed) and gunned the M3 money supply at double-digit rates (like the Fed).

This great error further juiced the fatal flood of lending from North Europe to Club Med. Interestingly, it is what US lending did to Germany in the late 1920s. When the music stopped -- when Wall Street cut off loans, as Germany has now cut off loans to Spain -- trouble ensured within two years. Weimar limped on, but not for long.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/...-loan-crunch-looms.html  

http://krisenfrei.wordpress.com/2011/10/18/...jahr-der-bankenpleiten/  

Gestern teilte die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) die neuen wöchentlichen Daten der fine-tuning operation des Securities Markets Programme (SMP) mit. Hinter dem SMP-Programm steht der Ankauf von Staatsanleihen aus finanzschwachen Mitgliedsländer der Eurozone (PIIGS) durch die EZB. Für die 42. Kalenderwoche 2011 stieg das von der EZB aufgesaugte Volumen an Staatsanleihen um +2,243 Mrd. Euro zur Vorwoche, auf 165,249 Mrd. Euro. Seit Mitte Mai 2010 kauft die EZB nun bereits potentielle Schrott(Staats)anleihen, insbesondere der Südperipherie der Eurozone auf und der Trend des aufgekauften Volumen zeigt weiter nach oben, wenn auch die Dynamik etwas nachgelassen hat.

http://www.querschuesse.de/smp-programm-bei-165249-mrd-euro/