POTASH

Potash also appears to be breaking down. Price carved out a new momentum low after forming a quick divergence. Price is now beneath the 20 and 50 period MA, yet their orientation is still bullish and the trend still remains up.

Potash has only made a lower low, and to be confirmed as a downtrend, would need to make a lower high and then swing back to take out the lower low.  

 

China May Pay $150/Ton More To Import Potash

Citigroup tips China to pay $150/ton more for potash imports this year (sharply higher than $5/ton rise in 2007), mainly due to global tight supply;

China imports 70-80% of potash it needs to increase crop yield.

Expects China to sign 2008 trade contracts with export countries (e.g. Russia, Canada) after Communist Party congress in March, "as any major increase would reflect poorly on the government's effort to control inflation." Keeps Hold on Sinofert (0297.HK), major Chinese importer of potash, target at HK$7.60; stock +2.7% at HK$7.13. Still, says stock could have upside on potential M&A, asset injection from parent.  

http://www.ariva.de/Ualkaly_t318239?secu=100389305

15.02.2008   Belarusian Potash Company Raises Export Prices for Sri Lanka

Belarusian Potash Company has raised the prices for the deliveries of potash fertilisers to Sri Lanka by USD 50 up to USD 550 per tonne, BelTA was told in the public relations department of the company.

"A tender for the potassium fertiliser supplies to Sri-Lanka won by BPC enables us to raise the export prices for the products of the Belorussian and Russian potash companies," the company said. After winning the tender the company concluded several new contracts to supply potassium fertilisers to Indonesia and Malaysia at the price of USD 550 per tonne. Overall volume of supplies to the three countries will amount to 100,000 tonnes.

In December 2007, the Belarusian Potash Company announced a USD 100 increase in the prices for Southeast Asia markets up to USD 500 per tonne. According to the company's general director Vladimir Nikolaenko, the demand for potash fertilisers in the world market is strong, stimulated by tight supply, and being estimated at 1.5m to 2m tonnes. In 2008, the prices will continue growing as the output will edge up a little.

Belarusian Potash Company is an exclusive supplier of potash fertilisers produced by Belaruskali and Russian Uralkali to the international market. The company sells its products to Africa, Europe, India, China, the USA, the Pacific region, Central and South America. The company has a well-developed distribution network and representative offices in Beijing, New Delhi, Singapore, San Paulo, and Chicago.  

..........
Sil'vinit OAO is a Russia-based company involved in the production of mineral fertilizers. Its offer includes potassium chloride, potassium fertilizers and salt. The Company delivers its products to all regions of Russia and over 60 countries worldwide. As of December 31, 2007, Sil'vinit OAO had 18 subsidiaries. It is headquartered in Solikamsk, Russian Federation.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vergleich Potash - Monsanto....mmmmhh???

obschon: lese wahrscheinlich nur ich selber..  

ich bin auch in POT und MOS investiert :-), finance.google.com diskussionsforum ist recht gut.  

POT 152,7$ -7,88 -5%  

 

Composite Indicator
  Trend Spotter TM Hold

Short Term Indicators
  7 Day Average Directional Indicator Buy
  10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Buy
  20 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
  20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
  20 Day Bollinger Bands Hold

Short Term Indicators Average:  80% - Buy
20-Day Average Volume - 8413060

Medium Term Indicators
  40 Day Commodity Channel Index Hold
  50 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
  20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
  50 Day Parabolic Time/Price Buy

Medium Term Indicators Average:  75% - Buy
50-Day Average Volume - 8296888

Long Term Indicators
  60 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy
  100 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
  50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy

Long Term Indicators Average:  100% - Buy
100-Day Average Volume - 6154949

Overall Average:  80% - Buy

Price Support Pivot Point Resistance
160.57 156.12 161.62 167.12  

Option DB84N1  RT 1,23  

 

Overall Short Intermediate Long
Bullish (0.42) Neutral (0.04) Very Bullish (0.62) Very Bullish (0.58)  

Support/Resistance

                                                                                                                                                                   

Type	Value	Conf.
resist.	170.11	1
resist.	164.28	2
resist.	162.40	2
supp	155.55	4
supp	148.84	8
supp	145.00	2
supp	141.75	7
supp	133.28	3
supp	124.37	9
supp	114.10	2
supp	109.42	2
supp	106.18	2
supp	103.68	4

 

 

 

Chart Indicators

                                                                             

Ind.	short	Inter	Long
EMA	VBu	VBu	VBu
MACD	VBu	VBu	VBu
RSI		Bu
TDD		Bu
Fibs	Bu	VBu	VBu
Highs	Be	VBu	VBu
Lows	N	Bu	VBe
Trends	N	N	VBu
Stoch.	VBe

 

http://www.potashcorp.com/investor_relations/...?quarter=Q4&year=2007

The MACD for POT currently indicates a strong bullish signal for two reasons. First, the MACD is above the signal line, a 9minute moving average. Second, the MACD is above 0 which implies that the underlying moving averages are trending higher.  

 

Potash Negotiation Key Driver For Sinofert-Citi

Sinofert (0297.HK) +1.7% at HK$7.30; shares have risen 75% over past 12 months on China's strong demand for chemical fertilizers.

Citigroup says 2008 potash import negotiation with Canada remains key driver; house tips 2008 import price to rise US$185/ton vs only US$5/ton in 2007. In 2006, Sinofert delayed shipment from Canada until August (as they didn't agree on prices), which seriously hit Sinofert's revenue. Says "we see regulatory risk on both the timing on 2008 potash negotiation and Sinofert's pricing power." Keeps Hold call, target stays at HK$7.60.