+ + Wir haben ÖL Peak + +

Nimm mal den Monatschart von Brent Crude Öl und leg den Spritpreis drüber. Dann siehst Du, dass Sprit noch "zu billig" ist. Der Abstand zum Rohöl ist geringer als die Tage zuvor.

Bin mir sicher, dass diesen Umstand die Konzerne längst auch schon erkannt haben und weiter anziehen werden.

http://www.risk.net/energy-risk/news/1602907/...xports-wane-post-2010

ZITAT:"............Global oil exports from Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer alongside Russia, will start to wane in the coming years as domestic demand surges and spare capacity drops, warned Khalid al-Falih, chief executive officer of Saudi Aramco in a speech published on the company's website. Domestic energy demand is expected to increase by almost 250%, from about 3.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2009 to about 8.3 million b/d by 2028, which will eventually affect the country's ability to export oil, he said. "Along with China and India, we do expect Saudi Arabia to be one of the largest sources of global oil demand," says Amrita Sen, oil analyst at Barclays Capital. "And given Saudi's importance in the oil market as the swing producer, in the longer term, this can impact their ability to control the market at the margin. However, this is unlikely to have a significant impact this year, given the substantial spare capacity it is sitting on, though that buffer could get eroded sooner rather than later in the coming few years."

Saudi Arabia maintains the world's largest crude oil production capacity, estimated by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) to be around 11 million b/d, as of mid-year 2009. The country contains approximately 264 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, including 2.5 billion barrels in the Saudi Kuwaiti shared Neutral Zone, amounting to around one-fifth of proven, conventional world oil reserves, says the Oil and Gas Journal. If Saudi Arabia does not improve its energy efficiency, availability of oil for export could fall by as much as 3 million b/d by 2028, al-Fahih added.

"I think this is very long term and I doubt much will change in the near future," says Andrey Kryuchenkov, analyst and strategist for the commodities team at investment house VTB Capital. "Saudi Arabia is running out of oil and Ghawar field will exhaust itself in the end," says Kryuchenkov. "It has been producing oil since 1948, which is unprecedented for any field and still accounts for around 55–60% of exports. The decline will accelerate from here and I think these are more immediate concerns than its consumption growing.........."

weiterführende Links zu diesem Thema:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-26/...han-ecomony-spa-says.html

http://www.businessinsider.com/...-of-saudi-arabian-oil-output-2010-4

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,741820,00.html

01/26/2011 

Zitat: ".... Two complete failures and one aborted test drill -- a miserable outcome. When Scottish company Cairn Energy published the preliminary results of its search for oil off the coast of Greenland last October, the firm's share price plunged 7 percent in one day. Its findings revealed not a trace of black gold. On the contrary: the company said it would have to write off costs totalling €180 million ($246 million).

And still, the Arctic fascinates oil and gas firms more than virtually any other region at the moment. Companies are hoping to tap massive, undiscovered reserves in this remote area that is free from the political instability plaguing other oil-rich parts of the world. The polar treasure was the subject of the conference "Arctic Frontiers" that began on Monday in the northern Norwegian town of Tromsö. Almost 1,000 visitors made the journey far beyond the Arctic circle to attend.

Cairn's oil exploration off the western coast of Greenland has attracted intense interest because it was the first such venture in years. It's unclear how many will follow, because the vast cost of drilling in the Arctic is likely to become evident in the coming years. This is made abundantly clear in unpublished interim findings by the US Geological Survey obtained by SPIEGEL ONLINE. They refer to an area in the northeast of Greenland that had so far been regarded as a particularly promising location for oil exploration. Geologist Don Gautier and his research team examined what it would cost to search for oil in the East Greenland Rift Basins.

Scientists had previously estimated that the region could yield some 7.5 billion barrels of oil -- 1.2 trillion liters. But statistically, the likelihood of producing that amount is the same as failing to find even a drop. However, the geology of the area is interesting -- after all, on the other side of the Greenland Sea, along Norway's west coast, there are attractive oil reserves that have been bringing in billions of euros for the Norwegian government for decades. Greenland is hoping for a similar boom.

Significantly Lower?

But the amount of oil that can actually be pumped out of this region is likely to be significantly lower than previous estimates indicated, according to the latest findings. Assuming production costs of up to $100 per barrel, only 2.5 billion* barrels of oil could be lifted, according to the USGS calculations -- and only with a 50 percent probability. (Anm Bio: Bio in Eglish = Mrd im Deutschen; die Welt verbraucht in 28 Tagen 2,5 Mrd Barrel!  Um bei 100 USD KOSTEN überhaupt zu fördern, müsste der Ölpreis spürbar über 100 USD stehen: und selbst dann hat arktisches Öl zu diesem Preis nur eine Reichweite von einem Monat!  Was ich seit Jahren sage: man soll sich von "massenhaft Öl unter den Polkappen" nicht blenden lassen. Das sind Märchen bzw. feuchte Träume, sonst nichts). 

In order to reach further reserves, companies would have to spend much more. Even based on outlandish exploitation costs of $300 per barrel, only 4.1 billion barrels could be raised, with the same 50 percent probability. "And that is before paying a cent of tax or making any profit," says Gautier.

The figures are based on statistical calculations and should therefore be treated with caution. But they indicate that only a fraction of the oil and gas believed to be in the Arctic could likely be exploited at economically viable costs. Canadian companies have already found that out for themselves. They carried out major exploration projects in the 1970s but ended up sealing off even promising test drillings because commercial production would have been too expensive.

The danger of causing environmental damage is a further factor. "Around the Arctic there is neither the technology nor the capacity to respond to oil accidents," says Alexander Shestakov, the head of the WWF Arctic Program. "That isn't just the opinion of an environmental organization, it's an acknowledged fact.........."

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WTI und Brent im Vergleich

Wti legt weniger zu  fallt aber schneller ..habe ich den eindruck !

hier ein Chart (nicht von mir Quelle im Chart)

Warum ist das so ?

US Embassy Cables

WikiLeaks cables: Saudi Arabia cannot pump enough oil to keep a lid on pricesUS diplomat convinced by Saudi expert that reserves of world's biggest oil exporter have been overstated by nearly 40% http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/feb/08/saudi-oil-reserves-overstated-wikileaks

guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 8 February 2011 22.00 GMT

ZITAT:"..........The US fears that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, may not have enough reserves to prevent oil prices escalating, confidential cables from its embassy in Riyadh show. The cables, released by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take seriously a warning from a senior Saudi government oil executive that the kingdom's crude oil reserves may have been overstated by as much as 300bn barrels – nearly 40%.

The revelation comes as the oil price has soared in recent weeks to more than $100 a barrel on global demand and tensions in the Middle East. Many analysts expect that the Saudis and their Opec cartel partners would pump more oil if rising prices threatened to choke off demand.

However, Sadad al-Husseini, a geologist and former head of exploration at the Saudi oil monopoly Aramco, met the US consul general in Riyadh in November 2007 and told the US diplomat that Aramco's 12.5m barrel-a-day capacity needed to keep a lid on prices could not be reached.

According to the cables, which date between 2007-09, Husseini said Saudi Arabia might reach an output of 12m barrels a day in 10 years but before then – possibly as early as 2012 – global oil production would have hit its highest point. This crunch point is known as "peak oil".

Husseini said that at that point Aramco would not be able to stop the rise of global oil prices because the Saudi energy industry had overstated its recoverable reserves to spur foreign investment. He argued that Aramco had badly underestimated the time needed to bring new oil on tap.

One cable said: "According to al-Husseini, the crux of the issue is twofold. First, it is possible that Saudi reserves are not as bountiful as sometimes described, and the timeline for their production not as unrestrained as Aramco and energy optimists would like to portray."

It went on: "In a presentation, Abdallah al-Saif, current Aramco senior vice-president for exploration, reported that Aramco has 716bn barrels of total reserves, of which 51% are recoverable, and that in 20 years Aramco will have 900bn barrels of reserves.

"Al-Husseini disagrees with this analysis, believing Aramco's reserves are overstated by as much as 300bn barrels. In his view once 50% of original proven reserves has been reached … a steady output in decline will ensue and no amount of effort will be able to stop it. He believes that what will result is a plateau in total output that will last approximately 15 years followed by decreasing output."

The US consul then told Washington: "While al-Husseini fundamentally contradicts the Aramco company line, he is no doomsday theorist. His pedigree, experience and outlook demand that his predictions be thoughtfully considered."

Seven months later, the US embassy in Riyadh went further in two more cables. "Our mission now questions how much the Saudis can now substantively influence the crude markets over the long term. Clearly they can drive prices up, but we question whether they any longer have the power to drive prices down for a prolonged period."

A fourth cable, in October 2009, claimed that escalating electricity demand by Saudi Arabia may further constrain Saudi oil exports. "Demand [for electricity] is expected to grow 10% a year over the next decade as a result of population and economic growth. As a result it will need to double its generation capacity to 68,000MW in 2018," it said.

It also reported major project delays and accidents as "evidence that the Saudi Aramco is having to run harder to stay in place – to replace the decline in existing production." While fears of premature "peak oil" and Saudi production problems had been expressed before, no US official has come close to saying this in public.................."

Bezüglich Stromverbrauch: die Saudis stellen Strom fast ausschließlich über Ölverbrennung her.