K+S Faktenthread + Technische Analysen + News
Marktausblick
Das letzte erkannte Muster war bullisch mit positiven Auswirkungen. Die allgemeinen Belege sagen: "Pass auf!", deuten aber noch nicht auf KAUFEN hin. Der Aktienkurs befindet sich immer noch nicht über dem Konfirmationslevel und das Signal deutet auf BAR BEIBEHALTEN, aber die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer bullischen Konfirmation, die das Signal in KAUFEN ändert, ist sehr hoch. Das verzögerte Tages-Modul ist eingeschaltet. Wir empfehlen Ihnen dringend, die Preis-Aktion auf Tages-Basis zu verfolgen, um maximal von der frühen Phase einer Hausse zu profitieren.
Belarusian Potash Company wins tender to supply fertilizers to Malaysia
BPC expects a gradual increase in sales in Q1 2014. It will allow securing the stable operation of OAO Belaruskali and will positively influence the entire market of potash fertilizers in 2014 as a whole.
- See more at: http://investorintel.com/potash-phosphate-press/...hash.fee1Q1Ne.dpuf
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Call it unorthodox, maybe even heretical. But, even for those of us who believe government (usually) has no business interfering in business, perhaps there’s a case for an exception. And that exception could be fertilizer. We are starting to see cases of how governments can work with companies to clear roadblocks to ensure sufficient future supplies of fertilizer can be made available...
- See more at: http://investorintel.com/potash-phosphate-intel/...hash.X0neRNgN.dpuf
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Comparable industry transactions provide a useful valuation benchmark for junior potash developers. In particular, we believe that the $434 million CAD acquisition of the Legacy Potash Project by the German fertilizer manufacturer K+S in November 2010 offers the most relevant comparison. For context, Legacy and Milestone are geologically similar in size, grade, and amenability to solution-extraction mining. Most other logistical metrics, as well as the availability of necessary project infrastructure, are likewise similar. K+S is currently developing Legacy into a mine and is on schedule to start production in 2016. With an update of its feasibilty study in 2013, K+S has increased Legacy’s CAPEX to $4.1 billion CAD, thus the numbers in below ta- ble, which represent initial feasibility economics of both projects, are even worse for K+S now putting Mile- stone in an even better light.
In order for WPX to gain up to a comparable market capitalization of $434 million CAD, its stock must rise to $1.95 CAD; an appreciation of 457% from its current share price of $0.35 CAD.
The above represents an excerpt of a research report which also includes a look into the fundamentals of the potash market and its rosy outlook. The 20-page PDF can be downloaded via the following links:
English: www.rockstone-research.de/research/RockstoneWPX19FEB2014english.pdf
German: www.rockstone-research.de/research/RockstoneWPX19FEB2014deutsch.pdf
Yesterday on February 19, Verde Potash PLC reported to receive more than $100 million USD to develop its Cerrado Verde Potash Project into a mine. The funds are provided by the Brazilian Government via the Brazilian Development Bank and/or FINEP (Financing Agency for Studies & Projects). This latest transaction strengthens our confidence that the depressed state of the potash market is history - we anticipate the potash price to start recovering now. Our research report on Western Potash Corp. also includes a look into the fundamentals of the potash market and why we expect it to become one of the most profitable markets for investors to participate via advanced-staged exploration and development projects that are ready to be brought into production once a price recovery has become obvious. Verde's stock has tripled its market value in the last 7 days only rising strongly from around $0.30 CAD to more than $1 CAD on the TSX. We are confident that similar appreciation will occur with Western Potash as well, whereas its stock has been successfully breaking out of a triangle price formation lately - which is a bullish sign:
Live Chart (15min delayed): http://scharts.co/1jlPwDE
Disclaimer
Neither Rockstone Research Ltd. nor the author was remunerated by Western Potash Corp. to produce or publish this content. However, the author holds shares of Western Potash Corp. (TSX.V: WPX, FSE: AHE) and may sell those any time without notice. Please read the full disclaimer inside the research report and on www.rockstone-research.com as none of this content is to be construed as an “investment advice”.
http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/...corp?postid=22228558
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FAST NEWS
CEO Murilo Ferreira says the company may sell its Carnalita potash project is it is unable to reach a tax accord with municipal authorities.
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/...?oid=229943&sn=Detai
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The market is finally giving hints of a bullish resurgence. Today a bullish pattern is detected. Based on this pattern, in response to emerging market bullishness the system established new confirmation and stop loss levels. The signal tells us to STAY IN CASH, but the chance of a bullish confirmation that will change the signal to BUY is very high. The Delayed Intraday Module is ON. We strongly suggest you to follow the price action on an intraday basis in order to profit most from the early phase of a bull run.
Posted on February 21, 2014 by Asher Berube
- See more at: http://investorintel.com/potash-phosphate-news/...thash.YSpE4KXG.dpuf
China will kaufen!
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Posted on February 21, 2014 by Robin Bromby
- See more at: http://investorintel.com/potash-phosphate-intel/...hash.KN7IS7ZK.dpuf
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Potash in perspective
The long-term outlook and an advanced-stage project bring Asian interest to Western Potash
by Greg Klein
As the world’s population grows, arable land shrinks, causing greater demand for fertilizer.
It’s an opportunity best characterized as “a marathon, not a sprint.” That’s how Western Potash TSX:WPX VP of corporate development John Costigan refers to his company’s Milestone project. The high-grade potash solution mine proposed for southern Saskatchewan achieved full feasibility in December 2012 and final environmental approval last April. Then came tumultuous times, with what Costigan calls the “Russian-Belarusian debacle” that took down the commodity’s price. Now, with solid Asian investment and indications of a market revival, the advanced-stage project might be seen as an early-stage opportunity emerging anew.
Understandably, enthusiasm for potash plunged with the price following Uralkali’s breakup with cartel partner Belaruskali last summer. Late last year, however, JP Morgan pronounced a more optimistic outlook for 2014. By January analysts were saying prices might have bottomed in the Chinese contracts signed by Uralkali and Canpotex, the marketing arm of PotashCorp TSX:POT, Agrium TSX:AGU and Mosaic NYE:MOS.
More recent news suggests funding’s picking up. On February 18 Verde Potash TSX:NPK reported significant progress in its application for US$105 million in loans, grants and investment from the Brazilian government for the company’s Cerrado Verde project. Six days earlier came news that fertilizer giant ICL was buying a $25-million stake in Allana Potash TSX:AAA, with potential up to $84 million, along with an offtake agreement for the company’s Danakhil project in Ethiopia. Last June Western got a $31.98-million cash injection from a Chinese joint venture.
The attraction was the full-feas, fully permitted Milestone. The operation calls for solution mining, in which water is pumped into underground caverns and then retrieved as potash-rich brine. A relatively simple but highly effective technique, solution mining would allow Western to build the greenfield operation in about 40 months.
Just 60 kilometres away the same approach is being taken by the giant K+S Group. Now under construction, the Legacy project is scheduled to begin potash solution mining in 2016.
Milestone benefits from Saskatchewan’s mining-friendly policies and rich infrastructure. Two continental railways pass through the 35,400-hectare property, as do roads, power and gas lines. An agreement with the city of Regina, 30 kilometres away, provides a supply of treated waste water to extract the potash—enough water, in fact, to flush out 2.8 million tonnes per year for the mine’s projected 40-year life.
Those benefits have already attracted a $31.98-million investment from CBC (Canada) Holding Corp, a JV comprised of fertilizer producer China BlueChemical and Benewood Holdings, a subsidiary of the Hong Kong investment firm Guoxin International Investment Corp. The deal comes with a 20-year offtake agreement for the lesser of 30% of Milestone’s production or a million tonnes a year.
With a 19.9% stake in Western, CBCHC plays an active role in the strategic alliance. One China BlueChemical appointee serves on Western’s board and another acts as an observer. The alliance has struck two six-person committees, one to study Milestone’s technical, construction and procurement details and another to recommend financing strategies, meet potential financiers and evaluate proposals.
The alliance brings technical synergies. It also offers potential financial flexibility that could help the junior put together the $2.91-billion capex—a considerable sum but substantially less than K+S is spending 60 kilometres away. One possible Milestone scenario could involve Chinese investment banks which, Costigan points out, can structure finance agreements with a 3:1 debt-to-equity ratio. With one or more additional partners, Western could make the transition to a potash producer.
The company already has mining expertise, most notably with project director Richard Lock. In fact his career has been based on projects much more challenging than a southern Saskatchewan solution mine. While with Rio Tinto NYE:RIO, Lock took the Northwest Territories’ Diavik diamond mine from exploration to production. Among other accomplishments, he also acted as project director for Arizona’s Resolution project, now in pre-feasibility and potentially North America’s largest copper mine.
As for potential partners, discussions have picked up, Costigan says. “There’s renewed interest now. People think the market has settled. If we see prices rise, there’ll be even greater interest.”
The commodity’s long-term fundamentals remain strong, he says. Nothing’s stopping population growth. Meanwhile the global decline of arable land calls for ever-higher crop yields.
“Look at the growth in Chinese potash consumption—it’s definitely why our partners came in,” Costigan says. “They recognize they’re going to see big increases in their consumption. China’s ramping up their domestic supplies, they’re in Thailand, Africa, Kazakhstan. But when you look at the projects out there, there’s nothing that compares with Milestone for volume, quality, cost, location, infrastructure and political stability. There’s nothing that compares globally.”
This article was posted by Greg Klein - Resource Clips on Friday, February 21st, 2014 at 6:46 pm.
http://resourceclips.com/2014/02/21/potash-in-perspective/
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26th Feb 2014, by Agrimoney.com
Extra fertilizers
However, while the earnings proved largely in line with market expectations, the group also revealed it was ditching its interim dividend, thanks to its weaker performance and a requirement to fork out for fertilizers washed out by heavy rains.
"In order to maintain production volume, we do expect a higher level of direct costs to be incurred in the short term to alleviate the leaching of soil nutrients caused by the heavy rainfall," Mr Tong said.
"There has been persistent heavy rainfall and major typhoons in the plantation regions and although there was minimal direct damage to the plantations from the major typhoons, this has caused nutrients to leach from the soil."...
Group revenues fell 16.1% to 748.3m remninbi for the half year, while production costs rose 7.8%, swollen by the need for extra fertilizer and agrichemical applications because of the wet weather.
http://m.agrimoney.com/news/...dend-to-fund-nutrient-spree--6796.html
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