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Aber so ist halt die Börse, erst wird nach untern übertrieben und danach nach oben!
Man muss halt bei steigenden Kursen immer seinen SL nachziehen und damit die aufgelaufenen Gewinne absichern!
Ich weiß nicht wohin es mit dem Kurs geht. Allerdings läuft Legacy 2016 an. Das rückt nun auch immer näher. Das Ergebnis muss man auf 2 Jahre abzinsen. Dann sieht es mit den Einnahmen nämlich gleich anders aus. Das ist der Faktor in meiner Rechnung, der dem Kurs Luft bis 28 gibt.
Wissen tu ich aber sicherlich nichts. Jede Prognose geht mit einigen Annahmen einher. Ich halte es allerdings für falsch, die Mehreinnahmen - auch wenn erstmal größerer Abschreibungsbedarf vorhanden ist, da die Mine dann anläuft - heute zu ignorieren. Man kann sie Berücksichtigen, muss sie aber dann mit den Marktgegebenheiten "abzinsen" um den heutigen Wert zu ermitteln. Bernstein macht das ja auch. Nur nehmen die Legacy mit Null an. Ergebnis = 0, Investitionen bisher = 0. Sie gehen davon aus, dass alles scheitert. Damit ist dann die 12 auch kein Wunder. Das hat auch Bernstein so angekündigt - oder sagen wir Redenius.
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Hier kann man sich streiten. Jedenfalls ist die Mrd. hin oder her eine Menge Geld und hat natürlich auch hohe Auswirkungen auf den Aktienkurs.
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"""einen großen Unterschied, ob ich die bisherigen Investitionen Legacy (etwas mehr als 1 Mrd bereits investiert) mit Null ansetze oder mit dem investierten Volumen. Insofern es Gewinne abwirft, muss es sogar noch mehr als die investierte Summe wert sein."""""
genau, das ist der punkt, an dem sich die geister, oder besser gesagt die analystengilde streitet.
liegt das cor bei 8%, ist bei derzeitiger Zinslage legacy ein ordentliches invest, mit entsprechendem gegenwert. ein cor hingegen, wie anvisiert, von 15% würde aus dem projekt eine investperle machen.
nimmt man dann den worst case (redenius), dass die kalipreise dauerhaft unter druck stehen, und legacy keinen, oder nur einen ganz geringen cor beitrag abliefert, dann, ja dann.....
legal sind alle annahmen (denn mehr als pers. zukunfsterwartungen sind sie nicht), der Ansatz der aussage muß nur deutlich zu erkennen sein.
gruss umbrellagirl
Ja sag ich auch. Man muss sie nur deutlich Kennzeichnen. Von den 15 % hab ich nie geträumt. Wenn es aber so wäre, ja dann .... :).
wie soll ich sagen.
Hätte ich nichts einzuwenden. Die 15 % waren ja auch noch recht zurückhaltend bei einem Kalipreis von leicht über 400 $. Mit der derzeitigen Lage und der Aufstockung des Budgets sind die natürlich nicht mehr drin. Allerdings denke ich dennoch, dass man klar über der Marktrendite liegen wird. Auch auf heutigen Fakten bezogen. Wenn die Preise allerdings weiter einknicken nicht. Da braucht man sich auch nichts schönreden.
Ich wollte damit nur sagen, dass man dies nie vergessen sollte. Wären es noch 10 Jahre, würde die Abzinsung keine Faktoren bringen. Aber so lange ist es ja nicht mehr hin.
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07 March 7:02
Belarusian potash restores positions on the world market
The corresponding statement was made at the council dedicated to the problems of the industry. There is a substantial investment program going on in the potash industry, which provided for 25% growth. Pripyat field is already being developed. Alexander Lukashenko stressed that potash industry plays an essential part in the Belarusian economy. The head of the state ordered to step up the efforts of the embassies in search for new markets. The direct trade links and wide geography has already paid off in such industries as engineering, agricultural sector and high technologies. The requirement of the President is to fix success in the potash business.
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GLOBAL POTASH INDUSTRY
http://m.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/...try.pdf?service=mobile
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https://www.bundesanzeiger.de/ebanzwww/wexsservlet
short_zusammen_0703.jpg (verkleinert auf 82%)
http://news.belta.by/en/news/president?id=741949
| 06.03.2014 13:04 |
| MINSK, 6 March (BelTA) – Sale of potash fertilizers has increasedfrom the beginning of this year, Belarusian President Belarus Alexander Lukashenko said in a meeting to discuss the operation of the potash industry, belTA learned. I think we have managed to reverse the situation and restore the sales. However, the flow of currency into the country is now yet good enough. But production and sales, especially in March, as the facts show, have been restored, the President said. Alexander Lukashenko noted that the past year was very difficult "because of the improper position of the owners and managers of Uralkali, which led to large losses of not only the Belarusian company but Uralkali as well, and which crashed the international potash market. "We were not ready for such a turn of events. It took us some time and hard effort to get out of the situation," the President said. He noted that in Q4 2013 the export of potash fertilizers in natural weight went up by 13% from the same period in 2012. According to him, an even greater increase was recorded in January-February of 2014 - 25% over the same period of 2013. "We think March will be a record high in terms of production and sale," the head of state said. At the same time, the President expressed concern that given the increasing production volumes, the inflow of currency into the country has not yet been restored. Addressing the meeting participants, Alexander Lukashenko demanded to report to him what is being done to increase foreign exchange earnings, what the optimal sales strategy is taking into account the current trends in the international potash market, what Belarus" pricing policy is and what is being done to consolidate the positions in the key markets, particularly in Brazil, India, and China. Alexander Lukashenko asked about the measures being taken to improve the efficiency of the distribution network. "The State Control Committee says the number of mediators is increasing. This is unacceptable! If at some difficult point it was OK, today they need to go. We need direct contacts, not middlemen. If we still need intermediaries, they should be the barest minimum," he said. He believes that a more vigorous(=energisch) use should be made of direct trade links producers and consumers of fertilizer. Better ways to solve the existing problems should be found. The President was also interested in the staffing issue. "I would like to draw the attention of those who report to me that we allegedly(=angeblich) have no good specialists in potash sales. Stop this nagging(Genörgel). We have enough highly-qualified people who know how to make a quality product and sell it. If our miners and specialists in Soligorsk make a good product and someone cannot sell it, such specialists are worthless. I just read these reports and place them aside. I do not believe them," the President said. "It is some kind of inaction: we have no specialists. We do and in a sufficient amount! They are in the Belarusian embassies abroad," the head of state added. Alexander Lukashenko reminded the participants of the meeting that Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei and his deputy Valentin Rybakov had been instructed to look into the issue. The President asked to update him on the results. According to Alexander Lukashenko, the goal of the meeting is to analyze the status of the potash industry and elaborate concrete measures to enhance the efficiency of the sector. "We should remember that the potash industry is one of the country"s biggest currency earners and generators of the budget revenues," he said. The President added that he would like to see a wider picture of the issues the Belarusian potash industry is facing with a new company emerging in Belarus and plans to develop a new deposit (Pripyatskoye). |
DAS erscheint nur wenn mann auf der Startseite des B-Anzeigers sucht...
...insofern haben die "nur" nachgemeldet - halten 1,02% aber der
Durchschnitt der Pos. mit den Daten vom 16.09 beträgt 22,03€
https://www.bundesanzeiger.de/ebanzwww/...o_quicksearchlist%29=Suchen
pennat_berichtigung.jpg (verkleinert auf 85%)
Gruß Jens
Marshall Wace LLP K+S Aktiengesellschaft DE000KSAG888 1,09 % 2014-03-04
Marshall Wace LLP K+S Aktiengesellschaft DE000KSAG888 1,16 % 2014-03-03
Marshall Wace LLP K+S Aktiengesellschaft DE000KSAG888 1,41 % 2014-02-28
Marshall Wace LLP K+S Aktiengesellschaft DE000KSAG888 1,51 % 2014-02-20
Why Ukraine and Russia matter to commodity markets
March 7, 2014, 6:02 a.m. EST
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Oil, gold and wheat prices are in the limelight after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine’s Crimea region, but the conflict may have significant consequences for other commodities too — including natural gas, palladium and potash.
Auszug:
Remember that Russia is the world’s largest producer of palladium and, together with Canada and Belarus is estimated to account for a little over two-thirds of global capacity for potash, a chemical compound used primarily in fertilizer. Ukraine, meanwhile, is the world’s fifth-largest exporter of wheat and third-biggest exporter of corn.
“Ukraine is known as the breadbasket of Eastern Europe and is one of the largest exporters of grain in the world, of which wheat exports would be the largest agricultural commodity impacted by an escalating conflict between Kiev and Moscow,” said Edmund Moy, strategist with gold-backed IRA provider Morgan Gold, who spent time in Ukraine and lectured at Kiev University.
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Warum?
Fundamental: Keine Änderung, Gedanken zum Kartell bleiben nach wie vor zunächst Gedanken, würde ich mit "neutral" bewerten!
CT: Untertauchen unter die 24,95€, somit hats (bisher) nicht als Unterstützung gehalten!
Psychologie: Gesamtmarkt tendenziell eher schwach, die "German-Angst" geht wieder um!
Im positivsten Fall also 2 negative Punkte und ein "neutral"!
Die einzige Rettung wäre Uncle Dow, auf den kommts heute nur noch an!
Sollte der fallen, sehe ich also auch hier eher wieder zumindest einen Test der 24,50/24,40!
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Russian companies face higher interest rates and delays on billions of dollars of loans as the crisis in Ukraine makes foreign banks increasingly wary of lending to them. The uncertainty sparked by Russia’s military intervention in its neighbour may have implications for nearly 20 high-profile corporate loans in the pipeline.
At least one investment bank has already pulled out of its commitment to a loan for a Russian bank that is in syndication, senior bankers said. Bankers also expect margins on deals to increase, as the crisis is likely to reverse the downward pricing trend for Russian borrowers.
“This will definitely affect Russian [loan] pricing as the risk is now considerably different,” a senior banker said.
Talks are ongoing over five new Russian loans totalling up to US$5.5bn, including a US$2bn three-year facility for VimpelCom, Russia’s third-biggest mobile operator, which is seeking to refinance existing debt and increase working capital.
Other firms seeking loans of up to US$1bn include petrochemical companySibur and Russia’s largest iron ore producer, Metalloinvest, while the world’s largest potash producer, Uralkali, is in talks for a US$500m refinancing. Uralkali’s proposed deal would be its first unsecured loan – an indication of the extent of liquidity and appetite for Russian risk before the crisis began.
“The main knock-on effect will be pricing: it will not stay where it is,” a second banker said.
Talks over a potential US$1bn loan for Novolipetsk Steel (NLMK) are at an early stage and may, therefore, be most affected by the crisis.
“NLMK is the cheapest loan under discussion at the moment and there has already been haggling around the pricing,” said a third banker. “No banks have been mandated and discussions are still in an early stage so it will be interesting to see where it ends up now.”
Negotiations also started last month on a possible multi-billion dollar acquisition financing for a top Russian company, a fourth banker said.
“Quite frankly, we are very likely to be told to stop if the political situation escalates. It is a shame really as it looks as if it there would be some nice activity in Russia this year”
All of these loans could be delayed, as banks assess the potential impact of the developing crisis.
“Quite frankly, we are very likely to be told to stop if the political situation escalates. It is a shame really as it looks as if it there would be some nice activity in Russia this year,” the second banker said.
Bridge end?
Bridge loans to bond issues for acquisitions by Russian companies may also be off the table, or at least more expensive, as the current volatility means banks are less able to count on the bond market.
Arranging banks have been pitching(stampfen) aggressively to Russian companies this year. Oil giant Rosneft made two substantial repayments on jumbo bridge loans which freed up country limits for lenders.
European banks that withdrew from Russia in the last five years in order to refocus on domestic lending have been returning to lend to Russian companies in recent months and the increased competition for mandates had put downward pressure on pricing.
http://www.ifrasia.com/...s-face-higher-rates-delays/21134940.article