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Bear shareholders may try to get higher offer
Stock price suggests J.P. Morgan bid may be put off until market calms down
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Last update: 6:23 p.m. EDT March 17, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- During a conference call held by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Sunday to discuss its offer to buy Bear Stearns Cos., an individual investor in the beleaguered brokerage firm announced that he would vote against the fire-sale deal.
The comment by a person identifying himself as Brian Firestone was followed by a brief silence. Then J.P. Morgan (JPM 42.66, +2.35, +5.8%) executives moved on to the next question.
But the prospect that Bear Stearns investors may reject the bank's offer of $2 a share -- at least for a few months -- is now being priced into the market, analysts said Monday.
J.P. Morgan's offer is worth more than $2 a share because the bank's stock (the currency it's using to try to purchase Bear) climbed 10% on Monday. Bear shares closed at $4.81 -- roughly double the value of the bid.
Indeed, Joseph Lewis, one of Bear Stearns' largest shareholders, told CNBC on Monday that J.P. Morgan's offer was "derisory." The currency-trading billionaire owns almost 10% of the brokerage firm, having built a stake since September when the shares were trading at more than $100.
"People are speculating that shareholders aren't going to approve the deal for a while," said Ryan Lentell, an equity analyst at Morningstar, in an interview. "If market conditions improve, they may be able to negotiate for a higher price or another bidder may come to the table."
As part of the deal, J.P. Morgan immediately guaranteed all of Bear Stearns' (BSC) trading obligations to try to encourage counterparties and clients to keep trading with the firm.
That guarantee remains in place until the acquisition closes and Bear is subsumed into J.P. Morgan's operations. However, if Bear shareholders reject the deal, they have to vote on it several more times over the next 12 months. During that time, the guarantee from J.P. Morgan remains in place, executives from the bank indicated Sunday.
"The guarantee applies to all transactions on the books today and any transactions that are entered into while that guarantee is in place," Bill Winters, co-chief executive of J.P. Morgan's investment bank, said during the Sunday conference call.
"We all firmly believe that the shareholders at Bear Stearns will approve the transaction," added Steve Black, who runs J.P. Morgan's investment bank with Winters. "If they were to choose not to approve it, then the guarantee would eventually go away when that process has run its course, which is over the course of 12 months."
Bear shareholders may be thinking that if they vote the deal down for several months, markets may calm down and the value of the brokerage firm may recover, leaving them room to ask for more money from J.P. Morgan, Morningstar's Lentell said. In the meantime, J.P. Morgan's guaranty remains in place for as long as a year.
This strategy also increases that chance that another bidder may appear later on, he elaborated. "You wouldn't get another bidder until the markets recover," he commented.
Bear Stearns shares fell 84% to $4.81. J.P. Morgan shares climbed 10% to $40.31.
Bankruptcy option
Still, Bear shareholders may have been left with nothing if the firm wasn't acquired quickly and had to file for bankruptcy protection instead, experts said.
In that scenario, the firm's assets may have been sold at big discounts and counterparties may not have been able to collect quickly on their positions, leading to wider problems across the financial system, they explained.
"Had it gone into bankruptcy the systemic risk for the economy would be very large," Josh Lerner, the Jacob H. Schiff Professor of Investment Banking at Harvard Business School, said in an interview.
A particular concern was Bear's derivatives business, which is a counterparty on credit-default swaps (CDS), a type of derivative that pay out in the event of default.
If Bear went bankrupt, all the firm's CDS agreements with hedge funds and other counterparties would have to be unwound, Lerner said.
"Someone who bought CDS from Bear to hedge positions wouldn't be able to reconstruct that hedge again," Lerner said. "Take that situation and multiply it by maybe 100,000 and you get a sense of how ugly it would be."
Indeed, J.P. Morgan was probably a major counterparty to Bear in the market for CDS and other financial products, said John Jay, senior analyst at Aite Group, a financial-services research firm.
"J.P. Morgan has pretty good motivation for getting this deal done," Jay said in an interview. "They're getting businesses that they've wanted all along and will avoid a bankruptcy situation, which may have taken a long time and is usually a complete mess."
By MarketWatch
Last update: 2:18 p.m. EDT March 18, 2008
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WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Federal Open Market Committee released the following statement following its closed-door meeting on Tuesday:
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 75 basis points to 2-1/4 percent.
Recent information indicates that the outlook for economic activity has weakened further. Growth in consumer spending has slowed and labor markets have softened. Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and the tightening of credit conditions and the deepening of the housing contraction are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters.
Inflation has been elevated, and some indicators of inflation expectations have risen. The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, reflecting a projected leveling-out of energy and other commodity prices and an easing of pressures on resource utilization. Still, uncertainty about the inflation outlook has increased. It will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.
Today's policy action, combined with those taken earlier, including measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate growth over time and to mitigate the risks to economic activity. However, downside risks to growth remain. The Committee will act in a timely manner as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against were Richard W. Fisher and Charles I. Plosser, who preferred less aggressive action at this meeting.
In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 75-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 2-1/2 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, and San Francisco.
Banc of America Securities LLC
Barclays Capital Inc.
Bear, Stearns & Co., Inc. - erledigt und übernommen
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. - angeschlagen
Countrywide Securities Corporation - extrem stark angeschlagen, Downgrade
Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC
Daiwa Securities America Inc.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. - ruft nach Staatshilfe - was ist los, Joe?
Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein Securities LLC. - Milliardenverluste
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
Greenwich Capital Markets, Inc.
HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.
J. P. Morgan Securities Inc.
Lehman Brothers Inc. - stark angeschlagen
Merrill Lynch Government Securities Inc. - stark angeschlagen
Mizuho Securities USA Inc.
Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated
UBS Securities LLC. - stark angeschlagen
Nachkauf über 5,25.
GD 100!
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Bevor die Wall schließt, wird vieles andere schließen.
So ist das mit den Wahrscheinlichkeiten, wenn man mal die Kirche im Dorf läßt.
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Warum sollte das Zentrum der Macht als erstes Untergehen?
Bevor die Wall schließt, wird anderes schließen!
So ist das mit den Wahrscheinlichkeiten, wenn man mal die Kirche im Dorf läßt.
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Web search giant faces questions of a slowdown in ad clicks
By John Letzing, MarketWatch
Last update: 11:46 a.m. EDT April 17, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- As Google Inc. prepares to report its first quarterly results of the new year on Thursday afternoon, the Web search giant faces key questions about the health of its core advertising business.
Google (GOOG: 452.41, -2.62, -0.6%) will report first-quarter results after the closing bell Thursday. Wall Street is expecting revenue to grow by 42% for the period, with a strong corresponding rise in earnings. But the numbers may also help investors understand whether recent reports of a slowdown in Web users clicking on ads have cut into the bottom line.
Analysts on average expect Google to post earnings of $4.55 a share on net sales of $3.6 billion for the period ended in March, according to FactSet Research. That compares with earnings of $3.68 a share in the same period a year earlier, when net sales were $2.53 billion. The company doesn't provide its own financial forecasts.
Overall sentiment remains positive on the company. Recent data from comScore Inc. have shown Google enjoying a growing share of the Internet search market. At the same time, however, the company may be suffering from a slowdown in paid clicks, which refer to the number of times Web users click on an ad-supported link -- a main driver of revenue for the company.
Google shares have fallen more than 30% since the beginning of the year. The stock closed Wednesday with a slight gain at $455.03 and was down about 1.5% midway through Thursday's session.
ComScore data showed Google's U.S. search market share rising to 59.8% in March, while that of rival Yahoo Inc. (YHOO: 28.09, -0.22, -0.8%) slipped to 21.3% and that of Microsoft Corp. (MSFT: 29.25, +0.30, +1.0%) fell to 9.4%.
Other recent comScore data showed Google had paid-click growth of only 2.7% in March, a marked slowdown compared to previous periods.
In addition, the March paid-click data followed reports for January and February that also showed weak growth, ranging from flat to 3%. Google had seen 25% paid-click growth as recently as the fourth quarter of last year.
Now, the pressing question for analysts and investors is: Has Google been able to offset its drop in clicks by garnering a larger amount of revenue from the clicks that it's managed to elicit?
Analysts have speculated that the cause of paid-click slowdown may be a worsening economy, which has deterred Web users from doing things like seeking out nonessential purchases online.
That would seem to complicate Google's own explanation for the paid-click slowdown, which is that much of it is due to quality initiatives. Those initiatives include reducing accidental clicks and the sale of keywords less likely to lead users where they want to go online.
Wall Street analysts have had mixed reactions to Google's paid-click data.
Collins Stewart analyst Sandeep Aggarwal wrote in a note to clients Tuesday that, thanks to the paid-click slowdown, "Google remains exposed to a 'miss' March quarter." Aggarwal wrote that "economic headwinds will continue to impact discretionary search ad spending in the near future."
Aggarwal has a hold rating on Google stock and a $535 price target on its shares.
Thomas Weisel analyst Christa Quarles wrote in a note to clients Wednesday that all of the recent negative news about Google's paid-click growth could actually work in its favor, because it's well-positioned for future growth both in the U.S. and in international markets like India and Russia.
With "investor confidence on the rocks, and Google's two biggest competitors Yahoo and Microsoft engaged in a nasty proxy fight, we continue to believe there is a great opportunity in [Google] shares," Quarles wrote.
Quarles has an overweight rating on Google shares and a $745 price target.
John Letzing is a MarketWatch reporter based in San Francisco.
4:04 PM ET, Apr 17, 2008
03.§[GOOG] Google Q1 rev $5.19 bln vs $3.66 bln
4:03 PM ET, Apr 17, 2008
04.§[GOOG] Google Q1 FactSet Research EPS view $4.55
4:03 PM ET, Apr 17, 2008
07.§[GOOG] Google Q1 net income $4.12 vs $3.18 a share
4:02 PM ET, Apr 17, 2008
By John Letzing
Last update: 4:11 p.m. EDT April 17, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Google Inc. said Thursday its fiscal first-quarter profit rose 31%, despite concerns about growth in the Internet company's core search advertising business. Mountain View, Calif.-based Google (GOOG: 451.04, -3.99, -0.9%) said net income for the period ended in March rose to $1.31 billion, or $4.12 a share, from $1 billion, or $3.18 a share in the same period a year earlier. Meanwhile revenue rose to $5.19 billion from $3.66 billion. Excluding special items, Google said earnings for the period were $4.84 a share. Net revenue, or revenue minus payments made to other sites to acquire Internet traffic, came in at $3.7 billion. Analysts had estimated Google would post earnings excluding special items of $4.55 a share, and net revenue of $3.61 billion, according to FactSet Research.
SUNNYVALE (dpa-AFX) - Der US-Chiphersteller Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) hat im ersten Quartal die Erwartungen des Marktes getroffen. Der Verlust je Aktie sei vor Sonderposten von 90 US-Cent auf 51 Cent zurückgegangen, teilte das Unternehmen am Donnerstag in Sunnyvale mit. Von Thomson First Call befragte Analysten hatten mit dieser Entwicklung gerechnet. Insgesamt verringerte sich der Verlust nach Sonderposten von 611 auf 358 Millionen Dollar. Der Umsatz kletterte von 1,233 auf 1,505 Milliarden Dollar. Hier hatten die Experten 1,50 Milliarden Dollar erwartet.
Im laufenden Quartal rechnet AMD entsprechend dem Saisonverlauf seines Geschäfts mit rückläufigen Umsätzen. Wie bereits früher bekanntgegeben, sei mit Belastungen aufgrund von Restrukturierungen zu rechnen. AMD-Titel tendierten im nachbörslichen Handel sehr fest./he
Milpitas (aktiencheck.de AG) - Die SanDisk Corp. (ISIN US80004C1018/ WKN 897826) hat am Donnerstag nach US-Börsenschluss die Zahlen für das erste Quartal 2008 veröffentlicht. Dabei konnte der amerikanische Speicherchip-Hersteller Umsatz und Gewinn deutlich ausweiten und die Umsatzerwartungen schlagen.
Der Nettogewinn belief sich dabei auf 17,88 Mio. Dollar bzw. 8 Cents je Aktie, nach einem Nettoverlust von 0,58 Mio. Dollar bzw. Break-Even je Aktie im Vorjahreszeitraum. Das um Einmaleffekte bereinigte Ergebnis beläuft sich auf einen Gewinn von 47,90 Mio. Dollar bzw. 21 Cents je Aktie. Die Analysten hatten im Vorfeld ein EPS von durchschnittlich 26 Cents erwartet.
Die Umsatzerlöse verbesserten sich im Berichtszeitraum von 786,09 Mio. Dollar auf 849,97 Mio. Dollar. Die Analystenerwartungen hatten sich im Vorfeld auf 810,92 Mio. Dollar belaufen.
Für das derzeit laufende zweite Quartal 2008 erwarten die Analysten ein EPS von 29 Cents, bei Umsatzerlösen in Höhe von 900,36 Mio. Dollar.
Die SanDisk-Aktie schloss heute an der NASDAQ bei 25,90 Dollar. Nachbörslich gewinnt die Aktie 6,56 Prozent auf 27,60 Dollar. (17.04.2008/ac/n/a)
Falls Church, VA (aktiencheck.de AG) - Die Capital One Financial Corp. (ISIN US14040H1059/ WKN 893413) gab am Donnerstag nach Börsenschluss die Zahlen zum ersten Quartal 2008 bekannt. Der US-Kreditkartenanbieter musste dabei trotz eines Umsatzanstiegs einen Gewinnrückgang hinnehmen.
Der Nettogewinn belief sich demnach auf 548,5 Mio. Dollar bzw. 1,47 Dollar je Aktie, nach 675,0 Mio. Dollar bzw. 1,62 Dollar je Aktie im Vorjahreszeitraum. Die Analysten waren im Vorfeld von einem Gewinn von 1,45 Dollar je Aktie ausgegangen.
Die Umsatzerlöse stiegen von 3,38 Mrd. Dollar auf nun 3,87 Mrd. Dollar.
Die Analysten hatten hier im Vorfeld Erlöse von 4,37 Mrd. Dollar erwartet.
Für das zweite Quartal erwarten die Analysten ein EPS von 1,42 Dollar bei Umsatzerlösen von 4,33 Mrd. Dollar.
Die Aktie von Capital One Financial schloss heute an der NYSE bei 48,74 Dollar. Nachbörslich verliert der Titel 0,68 Prozent auf 48,41 Dollar. (17.04.2008/ac/n/a)
By Greg Morcroft
Last update: 6:36 a.m. EDT April 18, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Citigroup (C:) , the nation's largest bank, said on Friday that it lost $5.1 billion or $1.02 a share a share in the first quarter, driven by $6 billion of pre-tax write-downs and credit costs on sub-prime related direct exposures. The firm also announced write-downs of $3.1 billion on funded and unfunded highly leveraged finance commitments, a downward credit value adjustment of $1.5 billion related to exposure to monoline insurers, write-downs of $1.5 billion on auction rate securities inventory, and a $3.1 billion increase in credit costs in its global consumer business. The result compares to a profit of $1.01 a share a year ago. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call had expected the firm to report a loss of 95 cents a share, on revenue of $12.8 billion. End of Story
4:09 PM ET, Apr 21, 2008
02.§[NFLX] Netflix sees 2008 EPS of $1.16 to $1.29
4:08 PM ET, Apr 21, 2008
03.§[NFLX] Netflix late-traded shares fall 9% to $35.78
4:08 PM ET, Apr 21, 2008
04.§[NVLS] Novellus Q1 rev $314.7 mln vs $397 mln
4:07 PM ET, Apr 21, 2008
05.§[NFLX] Netflix Q1 revenue $326.2 mln vs $305.3 mln
4:07 PM ET, Apr 21, 2008
06.§[NFLX] Netflix sees Q2 EPS of 33c to 42c
4:07 PM ET, Apr 21, 2008
07.§U.S. stocks end mostly lower as oil hits new highs
4:07 PM ET, Apr 21, 2008 - By Kate GibsonNEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks mostly declined Monday, with both the Dow and S&P falling for the first time in five sessions, as crude futures hit new highs and Bank of America Corp.'s earnings disappointed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 24.34 points to end at 12,825.02. The S&P 500 declined 2.16 points to 1,388.17, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 5.07 points to end at 2,408.04.$INDU, $SPX, COMP
08.§[NFLX] Netflix Q1 net income 21c vs 14c
4:06 PM ET, Apr 21, 2008
09.§[NVLS] Novellus Q1 net income 15c vs 42c a share
4:06 PM ET, Apr 21, 2008
Oberhalb des aktuellen Tageshochs setze ich zusätzlich eine Stopp Buy Order zum Rückkauf der 1. Position, die in den nächsten Tagen vorraussichtlich nach unten nachgezogen wird.
Großartige Chancen durch Stockpicking ist das Gebot der Stunde in solchen Märkten und wenn die Augen der Massen auf andere Richtungen fixiert sind.
Einzelne Chancen wie Infineon bieten sich selten, doch es lohnt die Zeit danach Ausschau zu halten.
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