Fortuna Silver Mines Inc.
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Wealth Maker Turns Attention to Peru Silver Mine
By Tim Wood -
NEW YORK (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Investing in mining and exploration companies is made a lot simpler by following some basic rules. The first rule is ‘know thy management’; does management have a track record of making returns, and are the returns reasonably balanced between insiders and investors.
As in all aspects of life, exploration success is neither egalitarian nor equitable. The majority of geologists do not find much in their lives. The few who do score a big strike often do so more than once.
Ditto the financing and strategy side of the business. Some people are just a whole lot better than others at convincing people to fund their activities, or at trading assets.
So it was not difficult for Fortuna Ventures [TSXv:FVI], soon to be Fortuna Silver Mines, to snag our attention since Simon Ridgway of Radius Gold [TSXv:RDU] is a director. Ridgway has made a few truckloads of cash for investors thanks to his generative exploration ken and rainmaking abilities. That’s handy when combined with a strong vested interest in a company like Fortuna.
Fortuna has a joint venture with Radius on the latter’s Tambor Gold project in Central Guatemala. Fortuna has taken over from Gold Fields [GFI] which departed its Tambor joint venture in 2003 because its early assessment could not delineate a project that would meet the criteria of a major producer.
However, it’s not Guatemala, but Peru that holds the most medium-term potential for Fortuna.
Caylloma Silver Mine
The company is in the process of finalizing a deal to acquire the entire high grade Caylloma Silver Mine in southern Peru from the Hochschild family. The mine is about 5 hours north east of the town of Arequipa.
With the market turning up again recently, Fortuna managed a preliminary fund raising of C$1.05 million from insiders, and will need a further $10 million later this year. That will go toward paying the Hochschild group to turn over Caylloma.
Caylloma was put on care and maintenance in 2003 for lack of investment Fortuna president Peter Thiersch told Resource Investor in a telephone interview.
Thiersch was appointed to his position in December 2004 with 20-years of experience as an exploration geologist under his belt.
Fortuna is undertaking a modest recapitalization in the circumstances. Stockholders, currently at 8.9 million shares fully diluted, are being asked to consider increasing the capital stock to about 30 million shares (depending on the price of the next placement) to buy 7.1 million ounces of silver reserves and a further 14 million ounces of inferred resources, all of which are code compliant.
Value in the ground
Including first year capital expenditure ($3.5m) the total expected outlay for Caylloma is about $11.7 million so Fortuna is paying $1.64 per reserve ounce full diluted. If you wash the dilution of the warrants with the cash likely to be received from them then it’s about $1.25/oz on a see-through basis.
Assigning just one quarter of the resources to possible mineable status and adding them to the reserves has Fortuna paying just $1.09 or 83 cents per ounce respectively for the whole lot.
That’s well below the silver sector weighted average market capitalisation per reserve ounce which is around $4/oz at the moment. For Fortuna’s immediate peer group - Endeavour Silver, First Majestic, and First Silver (all in Mexico) – the weighted average is almost $3/oz
Adjusted for its anticipated future financing, Fortuna would sport a projected fully diluted market capitalisation per reserve ounce of $2.70-90. There is presently C$2.21ps of in situ metal value based on reserves only, C$3.31ps with the addition of one quarter of the resource ounces.
Of course, it’s not just silver. There are some healthy credits available from polymetallic veins which carry good concentrations of lead, zinc and copper; even a small amount of gold. There is almost $30 million worth of zinc in resources awaiting extraction. Grossed up with the silver, that provides an in situ value of C$3.46 at current metal prices.
Buying metal cheaply is all very well, but what’s the use if it stays in the ground and never becomes cash?
Mining the cash
Nothing is guaranteed, but the prospects for conversion to cash at Caylloma look pretty good. The mine has all the necessary permits and centuries of history so there are no greenie assaults looming, or locals fearing displacement. There is an existing mining camp in good order that carries international certification and plenty of serviceable plant and equipment ready for use. Mining costs, ore handling and metallurgy are also well known so that further reduces the risk of an unfortunate surprise.
Thiersch said production is slated for mid-2006 with peak production forecast at 2 million ounces a year from a 600 tonne per day plant. Before that can be achieved, 3,000 meters of underground development and some plant upgrades have to be completed. A parallel zinc recovery plant is in the works as part of the redevelopment, and which would boost production rates and justifies pricing in the zinc resources.
The reserve rock is worth $109 per tonne at current silver and zinc prices, and $122/t if all metals are credited. That leaves a healthy margin on top of estimated mining costs of $40/t.
Total cash costs are pegged at about $3.50/oz taking all in costs to a rounded $5/oz. With silver currently trading at $7.39/oz, the potential cash flow is about $8.8 million a year, or C$0.37 cents per fully diluted share.
If you take a cynical approach and cut the silver producer average cash flow multiple two thirds, then Fortuna still carries an imputed price of C$2.45ps. That aligns well with the silver reserve value per share which is expected to grow through exploration and acquisition.
Production is one thing, but investors need more than three years of production in reserve. Thiersch is obviously confident that the resource base can be expanded, and Fortuna certainly has enough of the district staked for its account to assume that is more than blue sky promotion.
$700,000 is going to be spent on 5,000 meters of surface drilling in the first year. Thiersch said there is a possibility of acquiring some more properties soon. The concession Fortuna will be working over 8,000 hectares with 30 veins identified so far.
The stock is presently halted and is expected to resume trading in Canada next week.
Source: Resource Investor
Silver ETF Decision Raises Hopes, Heartburn
Source: InstitutionalInvestor.com
There are now more than 200 exchange-traded funds listed on U.S. exchanges, but few, if any, have been the subject of such wild speculation, and consequent heartburn, as the proposed silver ETF.
Since market leader Barclays Global Investors filed for the iShares Silver Trust nine months ago, both the pro- and anti-ETF forces have mustered some substantial, and some less substantial, arguments on either side. Neal Wolkoff, chairman and CEO of the American Stock Exchange, where the silver ETF is to be listed – the first new listing, it should be noted, on the Amex by BGI since Barclays decided to yank 81 ETFs from the Amex last summer – argued forcefully in favor of the fund.
"The listing and trading of the Silver Shares will benefit the marketplace by providing greater liquidity and investor choice," he wrote in a Feb. 28 comment letter. "We fervently believe that a product's potential success should be based on the performance in the marketplace rather than any potential or hypothetical concerns of a small number of commentators motivated by their own commercial interests."
Those commentators, led by the Silver Users Association, which represents members that it says process 80% of the silver used in the U.S., have argued that the silver market is too illiquid to support the demands of ETF (each share will represent 10 ounces, initially), and that a resulting scarcity of silver could force job cuts. David Karsbøl, a market analyst with Denmark's Saxobank, doesn't buy that argument, saying "even if prices double or treble from here, most users will probably buy the same amount of silver, because it will have no impact on the final price of the goods they are producing." But he acknowledges that there's not a lot of silver floating around in the market. "It's not really possible to increase the supply of silver very much.... We're seeing a very tight physical market."
Last week, the Securities and Exchange Commission – which received 255 comment letters on the proposed ETF – sided with the pro-ETF forces, approving the Amex's rule change allowing the ETF to trade. "The Amex is glad to see the SEC make an important step toward making the iShares Silver Trust available to the public," Cliff Weber, the exchange's senior v.p. for the ETF marketplace, said. Both the Amex and BGI caution that the ETF has not yet cleared the final hurdle. "We remain in a quiet period while the SEC reviews BGI's iShares Silver Trust filing," explains BGI spokeswoman Christine Hudacko. "No launch date can be determined yet." Still, given the SEC's decision on the Amex's rule change, and the tone of that decision, most commentators say the eventual approval of the ETF is a fait accompli.
The silver iShare would be structured in the same way as BGI's iShares Gold Trust, as a commodity-based trust shares security – not technically an ETF, but traded in the same way. Initially, the Amex is expected to list 150,000 shares, requiring 1.5 million ounces of silver, though the registration statement's mention of 130 million ounces, approximately the amount held by the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division, was enough to raise the eyes – and ire – of industrial users of silver. The fact that silver prices remain near a 22-year-high, thanks partly to the speculation surrounding the BGI offering, hasn't helped.
So, in the wake of the SEC decision, what of the doom and gloom scenarios?
Paul Mazzilli, an analyst and ETF expert with Morgan Stanley, has his doubts. "I think [the impact] is overstated. [The silver ETF] may have some more impact than gold, because gold's a much bigger market, but I also don't think this ETF will be as big as the gold ETF."
ETF opponents certainly hope he's right. Paul Miller, the executive director of the SUA, thinks transparency arguments helped carry the day for the Amex. "It's kind of what we're dealing with in Washington; folks don't think there's enough transparency in anything right now," he says. "Some folks in the general public are more radical and continuously send the SEC notes that say, 'The SUA is manipulating the silver market,' and it's just not true and not factual. The SEC, in its review, decided that this might be a way to put some of those concerns or fears to rest."
Karsbøl sees in that an effective strategy. "We've seen a lot of conspiracy theories that the short side of the market has been able to trigger sell-offs, just by dumping naked contracts on the market," he says. "If that were true, you could have bought silver and demanded delivery, calling the naked shorts. That's pretty close to what's happening now with the silver ETF." All told, Karsbøl says the proposed fund is great for the silver market, calling it "a tremendously positive development."
"Gold costs 55 to 60 times more than silver," he says. "It doesn't make any sense to me that that should be the case," given the relative scarcity of silver. "Everything else being equal, [the ETF] should be positive for the price of silver."
Tom Szabo, the editor-in-chief of the blog SilverAxis.com, says he doesn't buy the conspiracy theories, either, but says, "the silver market isn't very transparent. The spot market has virtually no information in it. Yes, there's ongoing spot price indications and London and New York fixes, but really, who knows how much silver is out there?"
Plans for a silver-backed exchange-traded fund on the London Stock Exchange have added another dimension to the controversy. Rather than actually holding physical silver, as the iShares product will, the proposed offering from ETF Securities will track the price of silver with third-party-backed contracts, much as it does for its London-listed oil ETF, Oil Securities. BGI, citing the quiet period, would not comment on the decision to use silver rather than futures.
Though he acknowledges that "some have raised concerns about that, too," the SUA's Miller says, "from our standpoint, that might have been a better approach here in the United States, not actually asking people to hold such large amounts of physical silver." That way, he says, by not tying up such a large inventory of the metal, the impact on jobs – his group's longstanding argument against the ETF – would be muted.
Mazzilli also has his doubts. "The bullion is cleaner, it doesn't have counterparty risk, and it also has a better tax treatment," he argues. "It's a cleaner, safer and simpler product if they can do it without the futures." Szabo agrees, saying that such a product "is really, in effect a collateralized obligation" that "still bears credit risk," as opposed to holding the physical commodity.
Szabo sees three ways the Silver Shares listing could play out. First, it could be as bad as the SUA and its opponents say, causing a big disruption in the silver market. Second, front-running could run silver prices up so high that it dampens enthusiasm for the fund. Finally, "there's a possibility that it's going to be a dud," he says. "It's very possible that this is all a big deal about nothing, and there really isn't that much pure demand out there to make a huge amount of difference."
The disappointed Miller certainly hopes so. "Hopefully, our conclusion in our statements were wrong and this won't have an impact," he says. "But nobody knows that right now."
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Posted on March 31, 2006
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Symbol FVI
Shares Issued 26,987,643
Close 2006-03-30 C$ 2.29
Recent Sedar Documents
Fortuna to begin Ag production at Caylloma in Q3
2006-03-31 11:40 ET - News Release
Mr. Jorge Durant reports
FORTUNA ON TRACK FOR SILVER PRODUCTION IN THIRD QUARTER 2006
Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. is on track to produce the first silver at its 100-per-cent-owned Caylloma mine in Peru, with milling of ore expected to start by the third quarter of 2006.
The company continues to make steady progress with mine commissioning and commercial silver production is expected to begin during the third quarter of this year. Mechanical crews initiated work on upgrading the 700-tonne-per-day processing plant in the first week of March and the new primary jaw crusher has arrived on site. Also during March, the company received its certificate for mining operations from the Peruvian government, and awarded the mine production and development contract to Canchanya Ingenieros SRL, a Peruvian mine contracting firm. Canchanya is currently operating in several underground mines and is the sole contractor for the Ares mine, one of the largest underground gold-silver operations in the country.
Production for the first year of operations is projected to be 1.9 million ounces of silver.
Jorge Ganoza Durant, president of the company, commented: "We are moving on track to achieve the corporate goals we set forth for the company last year. We are now established in Peru and Mexico with solid projects and my management team anticipates that we will become a silver producer this year. We are very pleased with how Caylloma is advancing towards production; our team in Peru is doing an excellent job."
Further information on the Caylloma project can be found in the National Instrument 43-101 report titled "Technical Report, Caylloma Project, Arequipa, Peru," prepared by Chlumsky, Armbrust and Meyer LLC, dated April 22, 2005, and filed on Stockwatch SEDAR files.
Corporate activity
The company also announces that it has granted incentive stock options to its directors and officers to purchase up to a total of 500,000 shares exercisable for 10 years at a price of $2.29 per share.
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Rechne mit jetzt langsam mit fallenden Rohstoffpreisen. Insbesondere bei
Kupfer und Zink.
Silber ist momentan unberechenbar und schwer vorherzusagen. Aber normalerweise
sollten wir hier auch erstmal zurückkommen.
Durch den ETF und die momentane unsichere Weltlage ist das aber fast unmöglich
vorherzusagen. Sollte die Zulassung für den ETF kommen, werden wohl aber
erstmal Gewinne mitgenommen. War bei den Gold ETF's auch so.
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Boliviens Präsident droht weitere Verstaatlichungen an
Heute scheinen alle die in Südamerika tätig sind in Sippenhaft genommen zu werden. Den erstarkten Linken ist allerdings auch alles zuzutrauen.
An unsere Linken hier im Board:
Es gibt wieder einige Länder in denen ihr euch wohlfühlen könnt. Nachdem China dem Sozialismus abgeschworen hat, da die klugen Chinesen die Sackgasse des Sozialismus erkannt haben, so gibt es wieder einige Länder in Südamerika in denen sich die Linken dieser Welt zu Hause fühlen dürfen.
Links gleich Mißmanagement und Armut.
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Ich denke das Geld ist hier nach wie vor gut angelegt.
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Norden aufgemacht. Meine Aktien von Fortuana Silver profitieren bisher noch nicht. In den letzten Wochen war das Handelsvolumen ohne erkennbaren Grund recht hoch. Der Aktienkurs hat sich in dieser Phase nur sehr vorsichtig aufwärts bewegt.
Hier noch eine Nachricht aus 07/06
Thu Jul 13, 2006 Fortuna Silver Mines appoints Chief Financial Officer | |
July 13, 2006: Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (TSX-V:FVI), Mr. Jorge Ganoza, President of the Company, is pleased to announce the appointment of Mr. Luis Ganoza Durant to the position of Chief Financial Officer with the Company. Mr. Luis Ganoza has a BSc. in Mining Engineering from the Universidad Nacional de Ingenieria in Peru, an MBA from ESAN (a Tier 1 Latin American Business School), and an MSc in Accounting and Finance from The London School of Economics. His operational experience of mining finance was gained in progressively more senior roles in the financial management team of one of Peru's largest public mining companies which generated US$100 million per year in revenues. After starting in an operational position as a shift boss in the mining operations, he progressed to the roles of Head of Costs and Budgeting Department, Treasurer, and Controller. His experience in these senior financial roles has given him significant exposure to Latin American capital markets. Mr. Jorge Ganoza, the President of Fortuna, said: "On behalf of Management and the Board of Directors, I would like to welcome Luis to the Company. We look forward to having him on board as part of the Fortuna team. His financial experience comes from a solid background in managing the financial aspects of production operations. This will be particularly valuable to Fortuna as the Company moves towards production in the third quarter of 2006." The TSX Venture Exchange has not reviewed and does not take responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release. ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD Jorge Ganoza Durant, President Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. Tel: 604-484-4085 Symbol: TSX-V:FVI | |
You can view the Previous News Releases item: Tue Jul 11, 2006, Fortuna grants stock options |
Thu Jul 13, 2006: Fortuna Silver Mines appoints Chief Financial Offi...
Tue Jul 11, 2006: Fortuna grants stock options
Mon May 15, 2006: Fortuna cuts 1772 g/t Ag and 10.5 g/t Au over 4.1m...
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Click here to see a recent interview from Jay Taylor |
The Daily Resource 8/4/06: |
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Ist hier eigentlich noch jemand investiert oder seit ihr bereits alles frustriert abgesprungen?
Fortuna Silver has received media coverage from Jay Taylor
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Fortuna Silver Mines has received media coverage from Jay Taylor,
editor of Jay Taylor's Gold & Technology Stocks Newsletter.
To read the story, please click the link below.
http://snipurl.com/v1ug
Best regards,
Warwick G. Smith
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Media Relations
Gold Group Inc.
http://www.goldgroup.com/
tel 604-484-4085
fax 604-484-4029
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Copyright (c) 2006 FORTUNA SILVER MINES INC. (FVI) All rights
reserved. For more information visit our website at
http://www.fortunasilver.com/ or send mailto:info@fortunasilver.com
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